Fluvial flood risk in Europe in present and future climates

In this work we evaluate the implications of climate change for future fluvial flood risk in Europe, considering climate developments under the SRES A2 (high emission) and B2 (low emission) scenario. We define flood risk as the product of flood probability (or hazard), exposure of capital and population, and vulnerability to the effect of flooding. From the European flood hazard simulations of Dankers and Feyen (J Geophys Res 114:D16108. doi:, 2009) discharges with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 250 and 500 years were extracted and converted into flood inundation extents and depths using a planar approximation approach. Flood inundation extents and depths were transformed into direct monetary damage using country specific flood depth-damage functions and land use information. Population exposure was assessed by overlaying the flood inundation information with data on population density. By linearly interpolating damages and population exposed between the different return periods, we constructed damage and population exposure probability functions under present and future climate. From the latter expected annual damages (EAD) and expected annual population exposed (EAP) were calculated. To account for flood protection the damage and population exposure probability functions were truncated at design return periods based on the country GDP/capita. Results indicate that flood damages are projected to rise across much of Western Europe. Decreases in flood damage are consistently projected for north-eastern parts of Europe. For EU27 as a whole, current EAD of approximately €6.4 billion is projected to amount to €14–21.5 billion (in constant prices of 2006) by the end of this century, depending on the scenario. The number of people affected by flooding is projected to rise by approximately 250,000 to 400,000. Notwithstanding these numbers are subject to uncertainty, they provide an indication of potential future developments in flood risk in a changing climate.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 3.1–4.7 earthquakes in the southern Baltic Sea and adjacent areas in 2000, 2001 and 2004

The area south and east of the Baltic Sea has very minor seismic activity. However, occasional events occur as illustrated by four events in recent years, which are analysed in this study: near Wittenburg, Germany, on May 19, 2000, M _w = 3.1, near Rostock, Germany, on July 21, 2001, M _w = 3.4 and in the Kaliningrad area, Russia, two events on September 21, 2004 with M _w = 4.6 and 4.7. Locations, magnitudes (M _L and M _w) and focal mechanisms were determined for the two events in Germany. Synthetic modeling resulted in a well-confined focal depth for the Kaliningrad events. The inversion of macroseismic observations provided simultaneous solutions of the location, focal depth and epicentral intensity. The maximum horizontal compressive stress orientations obtained from focal mechanism solutions, approximately N–S for the two German events and NNW–SSE for the Kaliningrad events, show a good agreement with the regionally oriented crustal stress field.     

A retrospective analysis of pan Arctic permafrost using the JULES land surface model

There is mounting evidence that permafrost degradation has occurred over the past century. However, the amount of permafrost lost is uncertain because permafrost is not readily observable over long time periods and large scales. This paper uses JULES, the land surface component of the Hadley Centre global climate model, driven by different realisations of twentieth century meteorology to estimate the pan-arctic changes in near-surface permafrost. Model simulations of permafrost are strongly dependent on the amount of snow both in the driving meteorology and the way it is treated once it reaches the ground. The multi-layer snow scheme recently adopted by JULES significantly improves its estimates of soil temperatures and permafrost extent. Therefore JULES, despite still having a small cold bias in soil temperatures, can now simulate a near-surface permafrost extent which is comparable to that observed. Changes in snow cover have been shown to contribute to changes in permafrost and JULES simulates a significant decrease in late twentieth century pan-Arctic spring snow cover extent. In addition, large-scale modelled changes in the active layer are comparable with those observed over northern Russia. Simulations over the period 1967–2000 show a significant loss of near-surface permafrost—between 0.55 and 0.81 million km² per decade with this spread caused by differences in the driving meteorology. These runs also show that, for the grid cells where the active layer has increased significantly, the mean increase is ~10 cm per decade. The permafrost degradation discussed here is mainly caused by an increase in the active layer thickness driven by changes in the large scale atmospheric forcing. However, other processes such as thermokarst development and river and coastal erosion may also occur enhancing permafrost loss.     

Climate Change Impact on Snow Coverage, Evaporation and River Discharge in the Sub-Arctic Tana Basin, Northern Fennoscandia

Arctic environments are generally believed to be highly sensitive to human-induced climatic change. In this paper, we explore the impacts on the hydrological system of the sub-arctic Tana Basin in Northernmost Finland and Norway. In contrast with previous studies, attention is not only given to river discharge, but also to the spatial patterns in snow coverage and evapotranspiration. We used a distributed water balance model that was coupled to a regional climate model in order to calculate a scenario of climate change by the end of this century. Three different model experiments were performed, adopting different approaches to using the climate model output in the hydrological model runs. The results were largely consistent, indicating a much shorter snow season and, accordingly, decreased sublimation, an increase in evapotranspiration, and a shift in the annual runoff peak. As the snow-free season is extended, the amount of solar radiation that is received during this period increases significantly. The results also show important local differences in the hydrological response to climate change. For example, in the scenario runs, the snow season was more than 30 days shorter at higher elevations, but in some of the river valleys, this was up to 70 days.     

A field survey of chemicals and biological products used in shrimp farming

This study documented the use of chemicals and biological products in marine and brackish water shrimp farming in Thailand, the world's top producer of farmed shrimp. Interviews were conducted with 76 shrimp farmers in three major shrimp producing regions, the eastern Gulf coast, the southern Gulf coast and the Andaman coast area. Farmers in the study used on average 13 different chemicals and biological products. The most commonly used products were soil and water treatment products, pesticides and disinfectants. Farmers in the southern Gulf coast area used a larger number of products than farmers in the other two areas. In the study, the use of more than 290 different chemicals and biological products was documented. Many of the pesticides, disinfectants and antibiotics used by the farmers could have negative effects on the cultured shrimps, cause a risk for food safety, occupational health, and/or have negative effects on adjacent ecosystems. Manufacturers and retailers of the products often neglected to provide farmers with necessary information regarding active ingredient and relevant instructions for safe and efficient use.     

Assessment of marine benthic quality change in gradients of disturbance: Comparison of different Scandinavian multi-metric indices

Three multi-metric benthic macrofauna indices were used to assess marine benthic ecological quality status (EcoQS) according to the European Water Framework Directive, in seven pollution gradients mainly, western Scandinavia. The impacts included organic load, hypoxia, metals, urban effluents and physical disturbance. The indices responded in a similar threshold fashion, irrespective of impact factor identity. Usually, the border between Good and Moderate EcoQS (G/M), is determined as some deviation from a reference situation. References, however, are difficult to find. An alternative procedure is described to estimate the G/M border, not requiring reference data. Thresholds, where faunal structure deterioration commences, were identified from non-linear regressions between indices and impact factors. Index values from the less impacted side of the thresholds were assumed to come from environments of Good and High EcoQS, and the 5th percentile of these data, was defined as the G/M border. Estimated G/M borders compared well with previous studies.     

The unified catalogue of earthquakes in central, northern, and northwestern Europe (CENEC)—updated and expanded to the last millennium

New databases motivate improvements and extensions of the catalogue by Grünthal and Wahlström (J Seismol 7:507–531, 2003a) – G&;W03 – of earthquakes in central, northern, and northwestern Europe with M _w?≥?3.50. Data from over 30 regional catalogues, the International Seismological Centre and U.S. National Earthquake Information Center bulletins for the NE Atlantic Ocean, and many special studies were analysed, largely along the lines of the previous study. Non-tectonic, non-seismic, and non-existing as well as duplicate events were identified and removed according to our current stage of knowledge. If not given by the original source, the moment magnitude, M _w, was calculated for each event with a specified epicentral location and a given strength measure (i.e., an original magnitude of any type or, for onshore events only, an intensity). The calculations follow transformation relations derived in the present or in our previous study. The investigated area is subdivided into 22 polygons, in each of which one or more local catalogues, supplemented by data from special studies, are used. If more than one catalogue lists an event, one entry was selected according to a priority algorithm specific for each polygon. If the selected catalogue entry contains more than one strength type, one was selected for the M _w calculation according to another priority scheme. The final catalogue, CENEC, is confined to the time period 1000–2004 and magnitudes M _w?≥?3.50. This is an extension of the time period covered by G&;W03 (1300–1993). The number of events has increased from about 5,000 to about 8,000. For each entry, available information on the date, time, location (including focal depth), intensity I ₀, magnitude M _w, and source (i.e., the local catalogue or special study) are given. The strength type and value from which M _w was calculated are also indicated. The catalogue is available on the website of the GFZ German Research Centre of Geosciences.     

Effet de la turbidité sur la dégradation des pigments phytoplanctoniques dans l'estuaire de la GirondeEffect of turbidity on phytoplanktonic pigments degradation in the Gironde Estuary

In the Gironde Estuary, most part of phytoplanktonic material carried by the rivers is mineralised in the maximum turbidity zone (MTZ). In order to follow the degradation of the phytoplanktonic material into the MTZ, we developed an in vitro approach based on the monitoring of phytoplanktonic pigments. Algal material from two chlorophytes (Scenedesmus suspicatus Chaudat and Chlamydomonas sp.) was incubated in the dark during 28 days into water samples from the Gironde estuary MTZ, at variable suspended solid concentrations (SPM) as well as in a sterilised turbid sample. First order decay constants of chlorophylls a and b and lutein increased by a factor 3 to 5 between SPM of 0 and $\text{3 }\text{g}\text{l}{}^{\mathrm{?1}}$. The production of pheophytin a in the presence of particles and the lack of degradation in the sterilised turbid sample confirmed the effect of attached bacteria on the particles. To cite this article: E. Lemaire et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 251–258.