A model for phased evacuations for disasters with spatio-temporal randomness

This research presents an operable zoning approach for phased evacuations adapted to disasters with spatio-temporal randomness. As a criterion for prioritizing evacuation order, evacuation risk is formulated by taking into consideration the estimated residual evacuation horizon associated with the characteristics of the disaster, the estimated time-dependent capacities of outbound lanes related to network supply, and the time-dependent evacuation demand of an evacuation unit. The modeling of the subzone determined for phased evacuation is based on rescue demand, the characteristics of the disaster, and network supply, and is labeled as a high-risk evacuation zone (HEZ). The range of HEZ features a time-evolving pattern in accordance with phased evacuation. The zone partition paradigm can be seamlessly applied to different types of disasters, especially those with high spatio-temporal randomness. It also provides a generalizable approach for subzone partitioning in phased evacuation by minimizing evacuation risk. The proposed approach is examined on numerical experiments through the road network of Xi’an, China, the results of which highlight its strength in increased adaptability to the dynamics of disaster impact and improved performance in evacuation operation.     

云南小江断裂东支活动性分析及工程场地稳定性评价

小江断裂延伸长、次生断裂交错分布多,使得区域内重大工程难以避免活动断裂带的影响,因此活动断裂的活动强弱以及场地稳定性是区域重大工程建设面临的主要工程稳定性问题。为了查清活动断裂对公路工程场地的影响,笔者等基于小江断裂地质构造背景,充分利用既有研究成果资料,重点研究区域构造环境和断裂特征,通过地质调绘、物理探测、年代学测试,结合对前人资料的系统梳理,计算分析了小江断裂中段东支活动速率,初步判定断裂活动程度;并综合考虑断裂活动性、地震烈度、岩体特性等因素,对工程场地稳定性进行分级。结果表明,小江断裂东支平均水平位移速率为6.6 mm/a,判定为强活动断裂,区域工程场地稳定性划分为极不稳定区;认为强烈活动性断裂两侧各10 km区域内对工程的影响最为严重,为公路工程场地选址和抗震设计提供了理论和数据支持。     

Geological controls on the geometry of incised‐valley fills: Insights from a global dataset of late‐Quaternary examples

Incised valleys that develop due to relative sea‐level change are common features of continental shelves and coastal plains. Assessment of the factors that control the geometry of incised‐valley fills has hitherto largely relied on conceptual, experimental or numerical models, else has been grounded on case studies of individual depositional systems. Here, a database‐driven statistical analysis of 151 late‐Quaternary incised‐valley fills has been performed, the aim being to investigate the geological controls on their geometry. Results of this analysis have been interpreted with consideration of the role of different processes in determining the geometry of incised‐valley fills through their effect on the degree and rate of river incision, and on river size and mobility. The studied incised‐valley fills developed along active margins are thicker and wider, on average, than those along passive margins, suggesting that tectonic setting exerts a control on the geometry of incised‐valley fills, probably through effects on relative sea‐level change and river behaviour, and in relation to distinct characteristics of basin physiography, water discharge and modes of sediment delivery. Valley‐fill geometry is positively correlated with the associated drainage‐basin size, confirming the dominant role of water discharge. Climate is also inferred to exert a potential control on valley‐fill dimensions, possibly through modulations of temperature, peak precipitation, vegetation and permafrost, which would in turn affect water discharge, rates of sediment supply and valley‐margin stability. Shelves with slope breaks that are currently deeper than 120 m contain incised‐valley fills that are thicker and wider, on average, than those hosted on shelves with breaks shallower than 120 m. No correlation exists between valley‐fill thickness and present‐day coastal‐prism convexity, which is measured as the difference in gradient between lower coastal plains and inner shelves. These findings challenge some concepts embedded in sequence stratigraphic thinking, and have significant implications for analysis and improved understanding of ‘source to sink’ sediment route‐ways, and for attempting predictions of the occurrence and characteristics of hydrocarbon reservoirs.     

试谈黔东南天锦黎地区石英脉型金矿的成矿作用过程

黔东南地区石英脉型金矿找矿勘查难获突破,甚至关于成矿作用过程的研究也有待深入,本文根据《中国区域地质矿产志·贵州卷·金矿》编撰过程中所掌握的各类资料文献,结合近些年关于金的成矿作用思考和地质观察,尤其是天柱金井金矿"纯净"石英脉明金似层状成矿、黎平三什江金矿(含金)石英脉白云石"层状"条带构造特征现象,以及天柱扒草金矿顺层(含金)石英脉稀土元素及微量元素对称性分布的地球化学分析等表明,黔东南地区石英脉型金矿并非传统认识的沉淀沉积成矿,而应为载体石英脉挂壁结晶生长、自然金粘附成矿的结果,其过程首先进行的是含矿热液混浊期成矿,形成主要产于暗色杂质条带的细粒明金成矿及其富矿金包和"狗头金"等,然后才是含矿热液干净期成矿,形成比较厚大的纯净石英脉及其中似层状明金成矿。     

A simple smoothed velocity model of the uppermost Earth’s crust derived from joint inversion of Pg and Sg waves

The paper presents some results of seismic experiments carried out on the territory of northern Moravia and Silesia, roughly delimited by the coordinates 16°E–19°E and 49°N–51°N. The experiments were aimed at compiling a velocity model of the uppermost Earth’s crust using the database of arrival times of Pg and Sg waves recorded at a fairly large number of seismic stations, which enabled us to produce a simple 1D-layered velocity model of the region. The velocity model was computed using the traditional tomographic iterative process composed of consecutive solutions of linear equations. Based on the analysis of velocity distribution, it was found that the velocities of Pg and Sg waves increase from about 5.9 and 3.3 km/s at the surface, to about 6.1 and 3.5 km/s at a depth of 11 km, respectively.     

Palaeohydrological characteristics and palaeogeographic reconstructions of incised-valley-fill systems: Insights from the Namurian successions of the United Kingdom and Ireland

Namurian (Carboniferous) eustatic fluctuations drove the incision and backfill of shelf-crossing valley systems located in humid subequatorial regions, which are now preserved in successions of the United Kingdom and Ireland. The infills of these valleys archive the record of palaeoriver systems whose environmental, hydrological and palaeogeographic characteristics remain unclear. A synthesis of sedimentological data from fluvial strata of 18 Namurian incised-valley fills in the United Kingdom and Ireland is undertaken to elucidate the nature of their formative river systems and to refine regional palaeogeographic reconstructions. Quantitative analyses are performed of facies proportions, of geometries of incised-valley fills and related architectural elements, and of the thickness of dune-scale sets of cross-strata. Reconstruction of the size of the drainage areas that fed these valleys is attempted based on two integrative approaches: flow-depth estimations from dune-scale cross-set thickness statistics and scaling relationships of incised-valley fill dimensions derived from late-Quaternary examples. The facies organization of these incised-valley fills suggests that their formative palaeorivers were perennial and experienced generally low discharge variability, consistent with their climatic context; however, observations of characteristically low variability in cross-set thickness might reflect rapid flood recession, perhaps in relation to sub-catchments experiencing seasonal rainfall. Variations in facies characteristics, including inferences of flow regime and cross-set thickness distributions, might reflect the control of catchment size on river hydrology, importance of which is considered in light of data from modern rivers. Palaeohydrological reconstructions indicate that depth estimations from cross-set thickness contrast with observations of barform and channel-fill thickness, and projected thalweg depths exceed the depth of some valley fills. Limitations in data and interpretations and high bedform preservation are recognized as possible causes. With consideration of uncertainties in the inference of catchment size, the palaeogeography of the valley systems has been tentatively reconstructed by integrating existing provenance and sedimentological data. The approaches illustrated in this work can be replicated to the study of palaeohydrological characteristics and palaeogeographic reconstructions of incised-valley fills globally and through geological time.     

川西地区中二叠统栖霞组白云岩成因分析

川西地区栖霞组白云岩成因及其与峨眉山玄武岩喷发热事件关系颇有争论。在野外剖面、岩心观察基础上,通过岩石学、全岩及矿物微区地球化学分析方法对其研究,结果表明川西地区栖霞组白云岩（石）可分为残余砂屑白云岩、晶粒白云岩以及鞍状白云石、脉体充填白云石四类。残余砂屑白云岩与晶粒白云岩均呈块状,阴极发光较暗,稀土配分模式与泥微晶灰岩相似,δ13C、87Sr/86Sr多处于同期海水范围内,δ18O略偏负,Ce负异常,残余砂屑白云岩Eu呈负异常,而晶粒白云岩Eu多为正异常。微区δ13C、δ18O分析显示,残余砂屑白云岩的白云石雾心与亮边内δ13C均处于同期海水范围内,δ18O亮边较雾心偏负;晶粒白云岩中不同大小的晶粒白云石微区δ13C、δ18O显示相近特征,表明这两类白云岩均为海水浅埋藏成因,但受到后期热流体叠加改造。曲面他形粗晶鞍状白云石充填于裂隙与溶蚀孔洞内,镜下具波状消光特征,发亮红色光,δ13C与二叠纪海水相近,δ18O明显负偏,Eu呈正异常,指示鞍状白云石为热液成因。脉体白云石岩石学与地球化学特征表明其为晚期埋藏成因。川西地区栖霞组白云岩主体为浅埋藏成因,峨眉山玄武岩喷发期热液对其叠加改造,仅西南地区充填裂隙与溶洞的鞍形白云石为热液成因。     

锆石的结构与化学稳定性 :核废料处置矿物类比物研究

锆石可作为核废料处置矿物类比物的重要矿物 ,近年来对此开展了大量的研究。在综合前人研究成果的基础上 ,文中对天然锆石遭受放射性照射所导致的晶格破坏、蜕晶质化以及锆石在各种热液条件下的稳定性、表面反应特性等几个方面进行了总结研究 ,特别是对各种热液条件下锆石的溶解动力学及元素传质进行全面讨论 ,进一步阐明了锆石作为核废料处置矿物类比物的优越性 ,指出今后一方面应着重对锆石的放射性破坏机制及蜕晶质化过程中的元素扩散、迁移和聚集进行系统的研究 ,另一方面着重研究不同变质程度锆石的淋滤机制和不同条件下淋滤溶液 (不同 pH值、无机溶液组分、有机溶液等 )对锆石中各种元素的影响。     

高分辨率影像融合算法对滨海湿地土地利用分类精度的影响

针对融合算法对影像分类精度具有明显影响的问题,本文选择连云港海岸带埒子河口滨海湿地为研究区,以GF-1卫星影像为数据源,首先分别使用Gram-Schmidt算法、PCA算法及Brovey算法进行影像融合。然后在eCognition软件平台上,基于面向对象多尺度分割技术,利用随机森林算法对影像进行土地利用分类,并对分类结果进行精度评价。试验结果表明,不同融合算法影像融合效果明显不同,其中,Gram-Schmidt算法融合后的影像质量最好,且分类精度最高;Brovey融合算法对植被和水体有较好的光谱保真性,并且改变波段组合后分类精度有明显提高;PCA算法在3种融合算法中精度最低。     

歧北凹陷沙二段超压背景下的成岩场分析与储层孔隙度预测

根据数学场论的原理,成岩场可定义为成岩强度在空间各点某一时间的成岩强度之总体,成岩强度的大小可用成岩指数I_D表示。在成岩场分析、沉积相参数定量化研究、压力与储层孔隙度关系讨论的基础上,该文建立了渤海湾盆地歧北凹陷储层孔隙度预测的多元非线性高次模型:孔隙度Φ=F(分选系数So,成岩指数I_D,地层压力P)。歧北凹陷沙河街组二段滩坝砂体孔隙度的预测表明,对于胶结物含量>10%的砂体,孔隙度预测误差可<2%;歧北凹陷沙二段东部的沿岸砂坝预测孔隙度为15%～20%,是储层发育的有利地区。