Successive Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Distributions

Spatial characterization of non-Gaussian attributes in earth sciences and engineering commonly requires the estimation of their conditional distribution. The indicator and probability kriging approaches of current nonparametric geostatistics provide approximations for estimating conditional distributions. They do not, however, provide results similar to those in the cumbersome implementation of simultaneous cokriging of indicators. This paper presents a new formulation termed successive cokriging of indicators that avoids the classic simultaneous solution and related computational problems, while obtaining equivalent results to the impractical simultaneous solution of cokriging of indicators. A successive minimization of the estimation variance of probability estimates is performed, as additional data are successively included into the estimation process. In addition, the approach leads to an efficient nonparametric simulation algorithm for non-Gaussian random functions based on residual probabilities.     

Acknowledgement for Reviewers for 2021

Mathematical Geosciences -     

High-order Stochastic Simulation of Complex Spatially Distributed Natural Phenomena

Spatially distributed and varying natural phenomena encountered in geoscience and engineering problem solving are typically incompatible with Gaussian models, exhibiting nonlinear spatial patterns and complex, multiple-point connectivity of extreme values. Stochastic simulation of such phenomena is historically founded on second-order spatial statistical approaches, which are limited in their capacity to model complex spatial uncertainty. The newer multiple-point (MP) simulation framework addresses past limits by establishing the concept of a training image, and, arguably, has its own drawbacks. An alternative to current MP approaches is founded upon new high-order measures of spatial complexity, termed “high-order spatial cumulants.” These are combinations of moments of statistical parameters that characterize non-Gaussian random fields and can describe complex spatial information. Stochastic simulation of complex spatial processes is developed based on high-order spatial cumulants in the high-dimensional space of Legendre polynomials. Starting with discrete Legendre polynomials, a set of discrete orthogonal cumulants is introduced as a tool to characterize spatial shapes. Weighted orthonormal Legendre polynomials define the so-called Legendre cumulants that are high-order conditional spatial cumulants inferred from training images and are combined with available sparse data sets. Advantages of the high-order sequential simulation approach developed herein include the absence of any distribution-related assumptions and pre- or post-processing steps. The method is shown to generate realizations of complex spatial patterns, reproduce bimodal data distributions, data variograms, and high-order spatial cumulants of the data. In addition, it is shown that the available hard data dominate the simulation process and have a definitive effect on the simulated realizations, whereas the training images are only used to fill in high-order relations that cannot be inferred from data. Compared to the MP framework, the proposed approach is data-driven and consistently reconstructs the lower-order spatial complexity in the data used, in addition to high order.     

Two-dimensional Conditional Simulations Based on the Wavelet Decomposition of Training Images

Scale dependency is a critical topic when modeling spatial phenomena of complex geological patterns that interact at different spatial scales. A two-dimensional conditional simulation based on wavelet decomposition is proposed for simulating geological patterns at different scales. The method utilizes the wavelet transform of a training image to decompose it into wavelet coefficients at different scales, and then quantifies their spatial dependence. Joint simulation of the wavelet coefficients is used together with available hard and or soft conditioning data. The conditionally co-simulated wavelet coefficients are back-transformed generating a realization of the attribute under study. Realizations generated using the proposed method reproduce the conditioning data, the wavelet coefficients and their spatial dependence. Two examples using geological images as training images elucidate the different aspects of the method, including hard and soft conditioning, the ability to reproduce some non-linear features and scale dependencies of the training images.     

Energetic electron asymmetries at Mars: ASPERA-3 observations

Energetic electron fluxes from more than two years of ASPERA-3 observations are organized in different coordinate systems for the investigation of asymmetries in the global dynamics of the Martian magnetosphere. A clear asymmetry is found in the distribution of high-flux events with respect to the solar wind convective electric field (E_sw) direction. These events are frequently detected below the average magnetic pile-up boundary (MPB) location at the terminator region of the hemisphere to which the E_sw points and extend toward the tail. A detailed investigation of the electron fluxes at the terminator region also reveals that the largest contribution to this E_sw asymmetry comes from locations of moderate or strong crustal fields. These observations have implications about reconnection processes in the terminator and provide new insight on magnetic anomaly effects in the global dynamics of the Mars-solar wind interaction.     

Mathematical Geosciences Best Paper Award 2021

Mathematical Geosciences -     

Multivariate Block-Support Simulation of the Yandi Iron Ore Deposit,Western Australia

Mineral deposits frequently contain several elements of interest that are spatially correlated and require the use of joint geostatistical simulation techniques in order to generate models preserving their spatial relationships. Although joint-simulation methods have long been available, they are impractical when it comes to more than three variables and mid to large size deposits. This paper presents the application of block-support simulation of a multi-element mineral deposit using minimum/maximum autocorrelation factors to facilitate the computationally efficient joint simulation of large, multivariable deposits. The algorithm utilized, termed dbmafsim, transforms point-scale spatial attributes of a mineral deposit into uncorrelated service variables leading to the generation of simulated realizations of block-scale models of the attributes of interest of a deposit. The dbmafsim algorithm is utilized at the Yandi iron ore deposit in Western Australia to simulate five cross-correlated elements, namely Fe, SiO₂, Al₂O₃, P and LOI, that are all critical in defining the quality of iron ore being produced. The block-scale simulations reproduce the direct- and cross-variograms of the elements even though only the direct variograms of the service variables have to be modeled. The application shows the efficiency, excellent performance and practical contribution of the dbmafsim algorithm in simulating large multi-element deposits.     

Dimensional Reduction of Pattern-Based Simulation Using Wavelet Analysis

A pattern-based simulation technique using wavelet analysis is proposed for the simulation (wavesim) of categorical and continuous variables. Patterns are extracted by scanning a training image with a template and then storing them in a pattern database. The dimension reduction of patterns in the pattern database is performed by wavelet decomposition at certain scale and the approximate sub-band is used for pattern database classification. The pattern database classification is performed by the k-means clustering algorithm and classes are represented by a class prototype. For the simulation of categorical variables, the conditional cumulative density function (ccdf) for each class is generated based on the frequency of the individual categories at the central node of the template. During the simulation process, the similarity of the conditioning data event with the class prototypes is measured using the L ₂-norm. When simulating categorical variables, the ccdf of the best matched class is used to draw a pattern from a class. When continuous variables are simulated, a random pattern is drawn from the best matched class. Several examples of conditional and unconditional simulation with two- and three- dimensional data sets show that the spatial continuity of geometric features and shapes is well reproduced. A comparative study with the filtersim algorithm shows that the wavesim performs better than filtersim in all examples. A full-field case study at the Olympic Dam base metals deposit, South Australia, simulates the lithological rock-type units as categorical variables. Results show that the proportions of various rock-type units in the hard data are well reproduced when similar to those in the training image; when rock-type proportions between the training image and hard data differ, the results show a compromise between the two.     

Training Image Free High-Order Stochastic Simulation Based on Aggregated Kernel Statistics

Mathematical Geosciences - A training image free, high-order sequential simulation method is proposed herein, which is based on the efficient inference of high-order spatial statistics from the...