Investigating the application of climate models in flood projection across the UK

Regional climate models (RCMs) have emerged as the preferred tool in hydrological impact assessment at the catchment scale. The direct application of RCM precipitation output is still not recommended; instead, a number of alternative methods have been proposed. One method that has been used is the change factor methodology, which typically uses changes to monthly mean or seasonal precipitation totals to develop change scenarios. However, such simplistic approaches are subject to significant caveats. In this paper, 18 RCMs covering the UK from the ENSEMBLES and UKCP09 projects are analysed across different catchments. The ensembles' ability in capturing monthly total and extreme precipitation is outlined to explore how the ability to make confident statements about future flood risk varies between different catchments. The suitability of applying simplistic change factor approaches in flood impact studies is also explored. We found that RCM ensembles do have some skill in simulating observed monthly precipitation; however, seasonal patterns of bias were evident across each of the catchments. Moreover, even apparently good simulations of extreme rainfall can mis‐estimate the magnitude of flood‐generating rainfall events in ways that would significantly affect flood risk management. For future changes in monthly mean precipitation, we observe the clear ‘drier summers/wetter winters’ signal used to develop current UK policy, but when we look instead at flood‐generating rainfall, this seasonal signal is less clear and greater increases are projected. Furthermore, the confidence associated with future projections varies from catchment to catchment and season to season as a result of the varying ability of the RCM ensembles, and in some cases, future flood risk projections using RCM outputs may be highly problematic. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater modelling with limited data sets: the Chari–Logone area (Lake Chad Basin,Chad)

One of the most important issues for water resource management is developing strategies for groundwater modelling that are adaptable to data scarcity. These strategies are particularly important in arid and semi‐arid areas where access to data is poor and data collection is difficult, such as the Lake Chad Basin in Africa. In the present study, we establish a numerical groundwater flow model and evaluate the effects of dry and wet periods on groundwater recharge in the Chari–Logone area (96 000 km²) of the Lake Chad Basin. Boundary conditions, flow direction, sources, and sinks for the Chari–Logone local model were obtained by revising and remodelling the Lake Chad Basin regional hydrogeological model (508 400 km²) developed by the BRGM (Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières) in the 1990s. The simulated aquifer water level showed good agreement with observed levels. Aquifer recharge is primarily determined by river–aquifer interactions and mostly occurs in the southern section of the study area. In wet years, groundwater recharge also occurs in the N'Djamena area. The approach we adopted provided relevant results and was useful as an initial step in more detailed modelling of the area. It also proved to be a useful method for groundwater modelling in large semi‐arid and arid regions where available data are scarce. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling of the groundwater hydrological behaviour of the Langueyú creek basin by using N‐way multivariate methods

The groundwater hydrochemical behaviour of the Langueyú creek basin (Argentina) has been evaluated through a systematic survey, followed by application of hydrological and chemometric multivariate techniques. Ten physicochemical parameters were determined in groundwater samples collected from 26 wells during four sampling campaigns (June 2010; October 2010; February 2011 and June 2011), originating a tridimensional experimental dataset X . Univariate statistical and graphical hydrochemical tools (contour maps and Piper diagrams) applied to individual campaigns, allowed to reach some preliminary conclusions. However, a best visualization of the aquifer behaviour was achieved by applying Principal Component Analysis (MA‐PCA) and N‐way PCA procedures, Parallel Factor Analysis and Tucker3. Results were consistent with two‐term models, being Tucker3 [2 2 1] the most adequate, explaining a large amount of the dataset variance (50.7%) with a low complexity. The first Tucker3 [1 1 1] interaction (38.2% of variance) is related with (i) calcium/magnesium versus sodium/potassium ion exchange processes; (ii) an increase of ionic concentration and (iii) a decrease of nitrate pollution, all processes along the direction of the groundwater flow. The second [2 2 1] interaction (12.5% of variance), accounts for the predominant role played by conductivity, bicarbonate and magnesium in the dataset. The seasonal variations are closely related to concentration/dilution phenomena originated by the variations of the phreatic levels, although this point will require additional sampling to establish a definitive hydrochemical model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An assessment of the non-market value of the ecosystem services provided by the Catalan coastal zone,Spain

A spatial value transfer analysis was performed to generate baseline estimates of the value of ecosystem services in the coastal zone of Catalonia, Spain. The study used the best available conceptual frameworks, data sources, and analytical techniques to generate non-market monetary value estimates that can be used to identify scarce ecosystem services among competing coastal uses. The approach focused on natural and seminatural, terrestrial and marine systems, which provide essential services that are not considered in current economic markets. Results show that in 2004 a substantial economic value of $3,195 million USD/yr was delivered to local citizens by surrounding ecosystems. In a spatially explicit manner, the approach illustrates the contribution made by natural environmental systems to the well being of communities in the coastal zone of Catalonia. It is hoped that this study will highlight the need to consider these coastal systems in future management strategies to ensure their proper maintenance and conservation.     

Regional study on potential CO2 geosequestration in the Collie Basin and the Southern Perth Basin of Western Australia

Coal-fired power stations in Collie, Western Australia emit 10 million tonnes of CO₂ per year. This study assesses the potential opportunities of geological storage of CO₂ both within the Collie Basin and the onshore part of the adjacent Southern Perth Basin of Western Australia within 50 km of Collie town site through a desktop evaluation of existing data. The aquifers and coal formations within both basins have been evaluated for their suitability for storage based on geological, geographical and environmental criteria related to storage capacity, injectivity, proximity to sources of CO₂, location of other natural resources and containment security. The study has concluded that there is limited scope for large-scale storage of CO₂ within the Collie Basin. In addition the potential for storage within coals of either basin is not a viable solution. This assessment is based on published criteria for CO₂ storage in sedimentary basins and coal-bearing formations.     

Orbit and origin of the LL7 chondrite Dishchii'bikoh (Arizona)

The trajectory and orbit of the LL7 ordinary chondrite Dishchii'bikoh are derived from low‐light video observations of a fireball first detected at 10:56:26 UTC on June 2, 2016. Results show a relatively steep ~21° inclined orbit and a short 1.13 AU semimajor axis. Following entry in Earth's atmosphere, the meteor luminosity oscillated corresponding to a meteoroid spin rate of 2.28 ± 0.02 rotations per second. A large fragment broke off at 44 km altitude. Further down, mass was lost to dust during flares at altitudes of 34, 29, and 25 km. Surviving meteorites were detected by Doppler weather radar and several small 0.9–29 g meteorites were recovered under the radar reflection footprint. Based on cosmogenic radionuclides and ground‐based radiometric observations, the Dishchii'bikoh meteoroid was 80 ± 20 cm in diameter assuming the density was 3.5 g/cm³. The meteoroid's collisional history confirms that the unusual petrologic class of LL7 does not require a different parent body than three previously observed LL chondrite falls. Dishchii'bikoh was ejected 11 Ma ago from parent body material that has a 4471 ± 6 Ma U‐Pb age, the same as that of Chelyabinsk (4452 ± 21 Ma). The distribution of the four known pre‐impact LL chondrite orbits is best matched by dynamical modeling if the source of LL chondrites is in the inner asteroid belt in a low inclined orbit, with the highly inclined Dishchii'bikoh being the result of interactions with Earth before impacting.     

Petrographic and geochemical evidence for multiphase formation of carbonates in the Martian orthopyroxenite Allan Hills 84001

Martian meteorites can provide valuable information about past environmental conditions on Mars. Allan Hills 84001 formed more than 4 Gyr ago, and owing to its age and long exposure to the Martian environment, and this meteorite has features that may record early processes. These features include a highly fractured texture, gases trapped during one or more impact events or during formation of the rock, and spherical Fe‐Mg‐Ca carbonates. In this study, we have concentrated on providing new insights into the context of these carbonates using a range of techniques to explore whether they record multiple precipitation and shock events. The petrographic features and compositional properties of these carbonates indicate that at least two pulses of Mg‐ and Fe‐rich solutions saturated the rock. Those two generations of carbonates can be distinguished by a very sharp change in compositions, from being rich in Mg and poor in Fe and Mn, to being poor in Mg and rich in Fe and Mn. Between these two generations of carbonate is evidence for fracturing and local corrosion.     

Seismic characterization of hyperconcentrated flows in a volcanic environment

We present direct observations and monitoring data of a hyperconcentrated flow that occurred along La Lumbre ravine, one of the most active channels of Volcán de Colima in Mexico. Flow properties were inferred from video images and seismic data recorded by a geophone installed outside the channel. We collected flow samples 400 m upstream from the monitoring station and analyzed the variation of sediment concentration and grain‐size distribution over time. A joint analysis of hydrological (i.e. flow velocity, wetted perimeter) and rheological (i.e. yield stress τ_y and dynamic viscosity μ_m ) parameters was performed to characterize the flow. Different flow regimes and sediment transport processes were identified and analyzed in comparison with both the amplitude and spectral features of the seismic signal. We observed differing sediment concentrations at the same discharge, suggesting a decoupling between sediment transport processes and discharge for low‐magnitude flows. A straightforward correlation was found between the amplitude of the seismic signal and the sediment concentration, and a value of 1.8 × 10^?3 mm/s was identified that can be used as a threshold to recognize the hyperconcentrated phase of the flow. This information was tested on the complete seismic dataset gathered at La Lumbre ravine during the 2015 rainy season. We identified the transition from streamflow to hyperconcentrated flow (and/or vice versa) in 16 low‐magnitude events and we validated this result using the video recordings. The correlation between seismic amplitude and sediment concentration is valid at La Lumbre ravine but would need to be tested in other locations for the development of automatic flow classification methods. This work contributes to standardized seismic methods for characterizing flow processes in volcanic environments, also for the development of lahar early warning systems. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of connection typology on seismic response of MR‐Frames with and without ‘set‐backs’

The work presented is aimed at the investigation of the influence of beam‐to‐column connections on the seismic response of MR‐Frames, with and without ‘set‐backs’, designed according to the Theory of Plastic Mechanism Control. The investigated connection typologies are four partial strength connections whose structural details have been designed to obtain the same flexural resistance. The first three joints are designed by means of hierarchy criteria based on the component approach and are characterized by different location of the weakest joint component, leading to different values of joint rotational stiffness and plastic rotation supply and affecting the shape of the hysteresis loops governing the dissipative capacity. The last typology is a beam‐to‐column connection equipped with friction pads devoted to the dissipation of the earthquake input energy, thus preventing the connection damage. An appropriate modelling is needed to accurately represent both strength and deformation characteristics, especially with reference to partial‐strength connections where the dissipation of the earthquake input energy occurs. To this aim, beam‐to‐column joints are modelled by means of rotational inelastic springs located at the ends of the beams whose moment‐rotation curve is characterized by a cyclic behaviour which accounts for stiffness and strength degradation and pinching phenomena. The parameters characterizing the cyclic hysteretic behaviour have been calibrated on the base of experimental results aiming to the best fitting. Successively, the prediction of the structural response of MR‐Frames, both regular frames and frames with set‐backs, equipped with such connections has been carried out by means of both push‐over and Incremental Dynamic Analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.