Moment magnitude (Mw) from hydrophone records of low energy volcanic quakes

Earthquake magnitude calibration using hydrophone records has been carried out at Campi Flegrei caldera, an active area close to the highly populated area of Naples city, partly undersea. Definite integrals of the hydrophone records amplitude spectra, between the limits of 1 and 20 Hz, were calculated on a set of small volcano-tectonic earthquakes with moment magnitudes ranging from 1 to 3.3. The coefficients of a linear relationship between the logarithm of these integrals and the magnitude were obtained by linear optimization, thus defining a useful equation to calculate the moment magnitude from the hydrophone record spectra. This method could be easily exported to other volcanic areas, where submerged volcanoes are monitored by networks of hydrophones and seismic sensors on land. The proposed approach allows indeed magnitude measurements of small magnitude earthquakes occurring at sea, thus adding useful information to the seismicity of these volcanoes.

     

A multi-component flood risk assessment in the Maresme coast (NW Mediterranean)

Coastal regions are the areas most threatened by natural hazards, with floods being the most frequent and significant threat in terms of their induced impacts, and therefore, any management scheme requires their evaluation. In coastal areas, flooding is a hazard associated with various processes acting at different scales: coastal storms, flash floods, and sea level rise (SLR). In order to address the problem as a whole, this study presents a methodology to undertake a preliminary integrated risk assessment that determines the magnitude of the different flood processes (flash flood, marine storm, SLR) and their associated consequences, taking into account their temporal and spatial scales. The risk is quantified using specific indicators to assess the magnitude of the hazard (for each component) and the consequences in a common scale. This allows for a robust comparison of the spatial risk distribution along the coast in order to identify both the areas at greatest risk and the risk components that have the greatest impact. This methodology is applied on the Maresme coast (NW Mediterranean, Spain), which can be considered representative of developed areas of the Spanish Mediterranean coast. The results obtained characterise this coastline as an area of relatively low overall risk, although some hot spots have been identified with high-risk values, with flash flooding being the principal risk process.     

A method for modelling coastal erosion risk: the example of Scotland

It is thought that 70% of beaches worldwide are experiencing erosion (Bird in Coastline changes: a global review, Wiley, Hoboken, 1985), and as global sea levels are rising and expected to accelerate, the management of coastal erosion is now a shared global issue. This paper aims to demonstrate a method to robustly model both the incidence of the coastal erosion hazard, the vulnerability of the population, and the exposure of coastal assets to determine coastal erosion risk, using Scotland as a case study. In Scotland, the 2017 Climate Change Risk Assessment for Scotland highlights the threat posed by coastal erosion to coastal assets and the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 requires an Adaptation Programme to address the risks posed by climate change. Internationally, an understanding and adaption to coastal hazards is imperative to people, infrastructure and economies, with Scotland being no exception. This paper uses a Coastal Erosion Susceptibility Model (CESM) (Fitton et al. in Ocean Coast Manag 132:80–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2016.08.018 , 2016) to establish the exposure to coastal erosion of residential dwellings, roads, and rail track in Scotland. In parallel, the vulnerability of the population to coastal erosion, using a suite of indicators and Experian Mosaic Scotland geodemographic classification, is also presented. The combined exposure and vulnerability data are then used to determine coastal erosion risk in Scotland. This paper identifies that 3310 dwellings (a value of £524 m) are exposed to erosion, and the Coastal Erosion Vulnerability Index (CEVI) identifies 1273 of these are also considered to be highly vulnerable to coastal erosion, i.e. at high risk. Additionally, the CESM classified 179 km (£1.2 bn worth) of road and 13 km of rail track (£93 m to £2 bn worth) to be exposed. Identifying locations and assets that are exposed and at risk from coastal erosion is crucial for effective management and enables proactive, rather that reactive, decisions to be made at the coast. Natural hazards and climate change are set to impact most on the vulnerable in society. It is therefore imperative that we begin to plan, manage, and support both people and the environment in a manner which is socially just and sustainable. We encourage a detailed vulnerability analysis, such as the CEVI demonstrated here for Scotland, to be included within future coastal erosion risk research. This approach would support a more sustainable and long-term approach to coastal management decisions.     

Equifinality and uncertainty in physically based soil erosion models: application of the GLUE methodology to WEPP–the Water Erosion Prediction Project–for sites in the UK and USA

Despite the wealth of soil erosion models available for the prediction of both runoff and soil loss at a variety of scales, little quantification is made of uncertainty and error associated with model output. This in part reflects the need to produce unequivocal or optimal results for the end user, which will often be an unrealistic goal. This paper presents a conceptually simple methodology, Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), for assessing the degree of uncertainty surrounding output from a physically based soil erosion model, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP). The ability not only to be explicit about model error but also to evaluate future improvements in parameter estimation, observed data or scientific understanding is demonstrated. This approach is applied to two sets of soil loss/runoff plot replicates, one in the UK and one in the USA. Although it is demonstrated that observations can be largely captured within uncertainty bounds, results indicate that these uncertainty bounds are often wide, reflecting the need to qualify results that derive from ‘optimum’ parameter sets, and to accept the concept of equifinality within soil erosion models. Attention is brought to the problem of under‐prediction of large events/over‐prediction of small events, as an area where model improvements could be made, specifically in the case of relatively dry years. Finally it is proposed that such a technique of model evaluation be employed more widely within the discipline so as to aid the interpretation and understanding of complex model output. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Streamflow drought time series forecasting: a case study in a small watershed in North West Spain

Drought is a climatic event that can cause significant damage both in natural environment and in human lives. Drought forecasting is an important issue in water resource planning. Due to the stochastic behaviour of droughts, a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model was applied to forecast monthly streamflow in a small watershed in Galicia (NW Spain). A better streamflow forecast obtained when the Martone index was included in the model as explanatory variable. After forecasting 12 leading month streamflow, three drought thresholds: streamflow mean, monthly streamflow mean and standardized streamflow index were chosen. Both observed and forecasted streamflow showed no drought evidence in this basin.     

Thermal Treatment of Eight CVOC Source Zones to Near Nondetect Concentrations

In situ thermal desorption (ISTD) was used for the treatment of eight separate source zones containing chlorinated solvents in a tight loess (silt/clay) above the water table. The source areas were as much as 365 m (1200 feet) apart. A target volume of 38,200 m³ (49,950 cubic yards) of subsurface material to a depth of 9.1 m (30 feet) was treated in a period of 177 days. Energy was delivered through 367 thermal conduction heater borings, and vapors were extracted from 68 vertical vacuum wells. A vapor extraction and capture system, including a surface cover and vertical vacuum wells next to heater borings, provided for effective pneumatic control and capture of the chlorinated volatile organic compound (CVOC) vapors. A central treatment system, based on condensation and granular activated carbon filtration, was used to treat the vapors. Approximately 5675 kg (12,500 pounds) of contaminants was recovered in the extracted vapors. Forty-seven soil samples were used to document remedial performance. Based on these, the concentrations of the target contaminants were reduced to below the target remedial goals in all eight areas, typically with concentrations below 0.01 mg/kg in locations that had had CVOC concentrations higher than 1000 mg/kg. Turn-key costs for the thermal remediation were $3.9 million, and the unit treatment cost, including all utilities, was $103 per cubic meter treated ($79 per cubic yard).     

Contrasting climate change in the two polar regions

The two polar regions have experienced remarkably different climatic changes in recent decades. The Arctic has seen a marked reduction in sea-ice extent throughout the year, with a peak during the autumn. A new record minimum extent occurred in 2007, which was 40% below the long-term climatological mean. In contrast, the extent of Antarctic sea ice has increased, with the greatest growth being in the autumn. There has been a large-scale warming across much of the Arctic, with a resultant loss of permafrost and a reduction in snow cover. The bulk of the Antarctic has experienced little change in surface temperature over the last 50 years, although a slight cooling has been evident around the coast of East Antarctica since about 1980, and recent research has pointed to a warming across West Antarctica. The exception is the Antarctic Peninsula, where there has been a winter (summer) season warming on the western (eastern) side. Many of the different changes observed between the two polar regions can be attributed to topographic factors and land/sea distribution. The location of the Arctic Ocean at high latitude, with the consequently high level of solar radiation received in summer, allows the ice-albedo feedback mechanism to operate effectively. The Antarctic ozone hole has had a profound effect on the circulations of the high latitude ocean and atmosphere, isolating the continent and increasing the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean, especially during the summer and winter.     

Stochastic inversion of pneumatic cross-hole tests and barometric pressure fluctuations in heterogeneous unsaturated formations

The distributions of permeability and porosity are key factors that control airflow and gas phase transport in unsaturated formations. To understand the behavior of flow and transport in such formations, characterization procedure is a typical approach that has been widely applied to laboratories and fields. As is recognized by most investigations, this approach relies on accurate measurements, and more importantly, an adequate tool to interpret those measurements from experiments. This study presents a pneumatic inverse model that is capable to estimate the distributions of permeability (k) and porosity () with high resolution in heterogeneous unsaturated formations. Based on the concept of sequential successive linear estimator (SSLE), the developed model accounts for compressibility and density of air and estimates the geologic parameters using air pressure measurements from sequential cross-hole pneumatic pumping or injection tests. Four synthetic examples, including a one-dimensional well-posed, a horizontally two-dimensional, and two three-dimensional problems, are used to evaluate the developed model in estimating the distributions of permeability and porosity in unsaturated formations. Results of the numerical experiments are promising. The developed pneumatic inverse model can reconstruct the property (i.e., permeability and porosity) fields if the well-defined conditions are met. With a relatively small number of available measurements, the proposed model can accurately capture the patterns and the magnitudes of estimated properties for unsaturated formations. Results of two complex three-dimensional examples show that the proposed model can map the fracture connectivity using a small number of subsurface pressure measurements and estimate k and in shallow soil layers using spatial variations of barometric pressure.     

Soil degradation in central Spain due to sheet water erosion by low‐intensity rainfall events

Runoff and sediment lost due to water erosion were recorded for 36 (1 m²) plots with varying types of vegetative cover located on sloping gypsiferous fields in the South of Madrid. 75% of the events had maximum 30‐minute intensity (I₃₀) less than 10 mm h^?1 in the period studied (1994–2005). As for the vegetative cover, maximum correlation between runoff and soil loss was found in the least protected plots (0–40% cover) during the most intense rainfall events; however, a significant positive correlation was also observed in plots with greater coverage (40–60%). If coverage exceeded 60%, rainfall erosivity declined. The average amount of sediment produced in high‐intensity events was significantly greater (approximately 7 g m^?2 per I₃₀ event >10 mm h^?1) than that produced in the rest of the moderate‐intensity events (approximately 3 g m^?2 per I₃₀ event <10 mm h^?1), but due to the high rate of occurrence of the latter throughout the year sediment loss during the period studied totaled 128 g m^?2. By comparison, only 40 g m^?2 was produced by the I₃₀ events greater than 10 mm h^?1. Even though the amount of soil lost is relatively insignificant from a quantitative standpoint, the organic matter content lost in the sediment (six times more than in the soil) is a permanent loss that threatens the development of the surface of the soil in this area when the vegetative cover is less than 40%. The soil here experiences a chronic loss of 0·02 mm annually as a consequence of frequent, moderate events, in addition to any loss produced by extraordinary events, which, though less frequent, are much more erosive. If moderate events are ignored, an important part of soil loss will be lost in the long run. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.