Complexity theory, spatial simulation models, and land use dynamics in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

Our research questions and analytical approaches are used to examine coupled human-natural systems in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon. They are based on complexity theory and extend from our earlier work in Cellular Automata (CA) in which land use/land cover (LULC) change patterns were spatially simulated to examine deforestation and agricultural extensification on household farms. The basic intent is to understand linkages between people and the environment by explicitly considering pattern-process relationships and the nature of feedback mechanisms among social, biophysical, and geographical factors that influence LULC dynamics within the study area. In this research, we describe how our CA modeling approach emphasizes the human dimensions of LULC change by including socio-economic and demographic characteristics at the household-level along with biophysical data that describe the resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility of farms to roads and communities, and the evolving nature of human-environment interactions over time and space in response to exogenous and endogenous factors.A LULC change scenario is examined by comparing model outcomes generated for a base CA model and an alternative CA model to explore the effects of increases in household income on land use change patterns at the farm level, achieved as a consequence of improved geographic accessibility to roads and communities and increased off-farm employment as a household livelihood strategy. Growth or transitions rules in our CA model, as well as neighborhood associations are sensitive to socio-economic and demographic factors of households, resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility, and the uncertainty associated with peasant farming in a frontier setting. Model outcomes indicate that increases in household income are associated with more land in pasture and more land being cultivated for crops as a result of greater access to agricultural markets. In addition, more land in secondary forest succession occurs as a consequence of greater access to roads and communities, thereby, affording a better opportunity for off-farm employment and greater levels of household income.     

The formation and evolution of an isolated submarine valley in the North Channel,Irish Sea: an investigation of Beaufort's Dyke

Beaufort's Dyke is a submarine depression located in the North Channel of the Irish Sea. With a maximum depth of 312 m, the dyke is one of the deepest areas within the European continental shelf. Integration and interpretation of 450 km of sparker seismic data and full‐coverage bathymetric data derived from multi‐beam echo sounder surveys allow for the investigation of the formation processes of Beaufort's Dyke and the evolution of geomorphological features within it. The dyke, formed by composite subglacial processes dominated by subglacial meltwater discharge, is interpreted as a tunnel valley. The regional isolation of Beaufort's Dyke may be explained by the bounding of the North Channel by the bedrock masses of Ireland and Scotland, coupled with the exploitation of structural weakness along a fault plane and presence of halite in the eroded substrate enhancing the erosive potential of the overlying glacier. Beaufort's Dyke has probably been maintained as an open feature by strong rectilinear tidal currents. The morphology of lunate sediment waves and a large parabolic bedform towards the south of the dyke contradict the observed dominant S–N mean hydrodynamic flow recorded within the North Channel, suggesting an alternative hydrodynamic regime either within the dyke or during bedform creation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of maximum seasonal tropical cyclone damage in the Atlantic using climate models

Natural Hazards - There are several different estimates of the observed cyclone damage potential of tropical cyclones based on observations of size, intensity and track. For the analysis of climate...     

Geological evolution of the Antongil Craton,NE Madagascar

The Antongil Craton, along with the Masora and Antananarivo cratons, make up the fundamental Archaean building blocks of the island of Madagascar. They were juxtaposed during the late-Neoproterozoic to early Palaeozoic assembly of Gondwana. In this paper we give a synthesis of the geology of the Antongil Craton and present previously published and new geochemical and U–Pb zircon analyses to provide an event history for its evolution.     

High-temperature deformation during continental-margin subduction & exhumation: The ultrahigh-pressure Western Gneiss Region of Norway

A new dataset for the high-pressure to ultrahigh-pressure Western Gneiss Region allows the definition of distinct structural and petrological domains. Much of the study area is an E-dipping homocline with E-plunging lineations that exposes progressively deeper, more strongly deformed, more eclogite-rich structural levels westward. Although eclogites crop out across the WGR, Scandian deformation is weak and earlier structures are well preserved in the southeastern half of the study area. The Scandian reworking increases westward, culminating in strong Scandian fabrics with only isolated pockets of older structures; the dominant Scandian deformation was coaxial E–W stretching. The sinistrally sheared Møre–Trøndelag Fault Complex and Nordfjord Mylonitic Shear Zone bound these rocks to the north and south. There was moderate top-E, amphibolite-facies deformation associated with translation of the allochthons over the basement along its eastern edge, and the Nordfjord–Sogn Detachment Zone underwent strong lower amphibolite-facies to greenschist-facies top-W shearing. A northwestward increase in exhumation-related melting is indicated by leucosomes with hornblende, plagioclase, and Scandian sphene. In the western 2/3 of the study area, exhumation-related, amphibolite-facies symplectite formation in quartzofeldspathic gneiss postdated most Scandian deformation; further deformation was restricted to slip along biotite-rich foliation planes and minor local folding. That the Western Gneiss Region quartzofeldspathic gneiss exhibits a strong gradient in degree of deformation, implies that continental crust in general need not undergo pervasive deformation during subduction.