Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty

Although policymaking in response to the climate change threat is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions paths developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. The resulting uncertainty in temperature change and other impacts under these targets is used to illustrate three insights not obtainable from deterministic analyses: that the reduction of extreme temperature changes under emissions constraints is greater than the reduction in the median reduction; that the incremental gain from tighter constraints is not linear and depends on the target to be avoided; and that comparing median results across models can greatly understate the uncertainty in any single model.     

Competitiveness of terrestrial greenhouse gas offsets: are they a bridge to the future?

Activities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by biological soil or forest carbon sequestration predominantly utilize currently known, readily implementable technologies. Many other greenhouse gas emission reduction options require future technological development or must wait for turnover of capital stock. Carbon sequestration options in soils and forests, while ready to go now, generally have a finite life, allowing use until other strategies are developed. This paper reports on an investigation of the competitiveness of biological carbon sequestration from a dynamic and multiple strategy viewpoint. Key factors affecting the competitiveness of terrestrial mitigation options are land availability and cost effectiveness relative to other options including CO₂ capture and storage, energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emission reductions. The analysis results show that, at lower CO₂ prices and in the near term, soil carbon and other agricultural/forestry options can be important bridges to the future, initially providing a substantial portion of attainable reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions, but with a limited role in later years. At higher CO₂ prices, afforestation and biofuels are more dominant among terrestrial options to offset greenhouse gas emissions. But in the longer run, allowing for capital stock turnover, options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the energy system and biofuels provide an increasing share of potential reductions in total US greenhouse gas emissions.     

Environmental influences upon mercury, radon and helium concentrations in soil gases at a site near Denver, Colorado

Variations in soil gas Hg, Rn and He concentrations and meteorological variables were monitored daily at one site over a period of 22 months. Air and soil temperature, humidity, barometric pressure, soil moisture, wind direction and velocity, soil freeze-thaw, water table elevation, crystal strain and gas emissions were determined simultaneously in order to assess the influence of the environmental variables on gas emission.Mercury concentrations were found to be higher in the summer while Rn and He concentrations were higher in the winter. It is hypothesized that adsorption-desorption controls the migration of Hg whereas Rn and He concentrations are controlled by diffusion and mass transport. Gas emissions respond to seasonal and shorter-term changes in environmental conditions. Stepwise multiple regression using gas emissions as the dependent variables suggests that environmental parameters account for 62% of the total Hg variance, 83% of the total Rn variance, and 33% of the total He variance. Temperature, barometric pressure and soil moisture exert the most influence on gas emissions with temperature effects dominating gas emissions throughout the year. Soil gas emissions display a predictable behavior during winter and summer when more stable meteorological conditions exist. During the transitional seasons of spring and fall, soil gas emissions become erratic and exhibit increased variability. Environmental variables are interrelated and appear to control the manner of gas migration.Increased adsorption by solids during the season of falling temperature decreases soil gas Hg<0.0001 ng L⁻¹, which is desorbed as the soil warms in the spring. Transport of Rn and He is primarily by convection. During the winter months, air temperatures are less than soil temperatures promoting upward movement of Rn and He by convection. During the summer, soil temperatures are less than air temperatures and an inversion layer below the level of sampling reduces upward flux and observed concentration.     

The role of tidal,wave and river currents in the evolution of mixed‐energy deltas: Example from the Lajas Formation (Argentina)

Many modern deltas show complex morphologies and architectures related to the interplay of river, wave and tidal currents. However, methods for extracting the signature of the individual processes from the stratigraphic architecture are poorly developed. Through an analysis of facies, palaeocurrents and stratigraphic stacking patterns in the Jurassic Lajas Formation, this paper: (i) separates the signals of wave, tide and river currents; (ii) illustrates the result of strong tidal reworking in the distal reaches of deltaic systems; and (iii) discusses the implications of this reworking for the evolution of mixed‐energy systems and their reservoir heterogeneities. The Lajas Formation, a sand‐rich, shallow‐marine, mixed‐energy deltaic system in the Neuquén Basin of Argentina, previously defined as a tide‐dominated system, presents an exceptional example of process variability at different scales. Tidal signals are predominantly located in the delta front, the subaqueous platform and the distributary channel deposits. Tidal currents vigorously reworked the delta front during transgressions, producing intensely cross‐stratified, sheet‐like, sandstone units. In the subaqueous platform, described for the first time in an ancient outcrop example, the tidal reworking was confined within subtidal channels. The intensive tidal reworking in the distal reaches of the regressive delta front could not have been predicted from knowledge of the coeval proximal reaches of the regressive delta front. The wave signals occur mainly in the shelf or shoreface deposits. The fluvial signals increase in abundance proximally but are always mixed with the other processes. The Lajas system is an unusual clean‐water (i.e. very little mud is present in the system), sand‐rich deltaic system, very different from the majority of mud‐rich, modern tide‐influenced examples. The sand‐rich character is a combination of source proximity, syndepositional tectonic activity and strong tidal‐current reworking, which produced amalgamated sandstone bodies in the delta‐front area, and a final stratigraphic record very different from the simple coarsening‐upward trends of river‐dominated and wave‐dominated delta fronts.     

储集层非均质性分析的计算机方法:以西弗吉尼亚州下密西西比系油田为例

本文使用几种计算法和统计法研究美国西弗吉尼亚洲中部格兰尼克里克油田大Injun砂岩储集层的结构及其与采油量的关系。计算机程序根据已出版的资料编写,以适合(1)计算渗透率对孔隙度的回归;(2)标绘三维孔隙度;(3)确定和标绘根据地球物理测井记录推断的相;(4)估算原始储量、累积产量和采油率。因为回归分析显示出测井记录和岩心孔隙度及岩心渗透率间微弱但重要的相关,所以,孔隙度可用于地层渗透率中以构成储集层的模式。也使用定量地层对比和多维定算法来估算在缺乏可用数据的情况下构造的影响。于井间使用克里格法内插绘制的剖面,突出了孔隙度较高的地带。使用地球物理测井资料和岩心描述,用聚类分析确定导电相。原始储量的估算结果与累计产量数据相结合,得出采油率的估算值。这些采油量变量图通常呈现在岩相图上观察到的相同的南北走向。     

A Climatic Sequence Stratigraphic Model in the Terrestrial Lacustrine Basin:A Case Study of Green River Formation,Uinta Basin,USA

In recent years,with the development of terrestrial sequence stratigraphy,more attention has been focused on the study of the terrestrial lacustrine sequence stratigraphic model globally. Different viewpoints are preferred by researchers.Under the guidance of the theory of sequence stratigraphy,the findings of this paper indicate that climate is a major factor controlling the formation of the fourth-order sequence,based upon the study of the sequence stratigraphy in the Green River Formation of the Uinta...