An iterative version of the adaptive Gaussian mixture filter

The adaptive Gaussian mixture filter (AGM) was introduced as a robust filter technique for large-scale applications and an alternative to the well-known ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). It consists of two analysis steps, one linear update and one weighting/resampling step. The bias of AGM is determined by two parameters, one adaptive weight parameter (forcing the weights to be more uniform to avoid filter collapse) and one predetermined bandwidth parameter which decides the size of the linear update. It has been shown that if the adaptive parameter approaches one and the bandwidth parameter decreases, as an increasing function of the sample size, the filter can achieve asymptotic optimality. For large-scale applications with a limited sample size, the filter solution may be far from optimal as the adaptive parameter gets close to zero depending on how well the samples from the prior distribution match the data. The bandwidth parameter must often be selected significantly different from zero in order to make large enough linear updates to match the data, at the expense of bias in the estimates. In the iterative AGM we introduce here, we take advantage of the fact that the history matching problem is usually estimation of parameters and initial conditions. If the prior distribution of initial conditions and parameters is close to the posterior distribution, it is possible to match the historical data with a small bandwidth parameter and an adaptive weight parameter that gets close to one. Hence, the bias of the filter solution is small. In order to obtain this scenario, we iteratively run the AGM throughout the data history with a very small bandwidth to create a new prior distribution from the updated samples after each iteration. After a few iterations, nearly all samples from the previous iteration match the data, and the above scenario is achieved. A simple toy problem shows that it is possible to reconstruct the true posterior distribution using the iterative version of the AGM. Then a 2D synthetic reservoir is revisited to demonstrate the potential of the new method on large-scale problems.     

Isotope hydrological study of mean transit times in an alpine basin (Wimbachtal, Germany)

Measurements of tritium and ¹⁸O concentrations in precipitation and runoff were used to provide further insight into the groundwater storage properties of the Wimbachtal Valley, a catchment area of 33.4 km², extending between 636 and 2713 m a.s.l. in the Berchtesgaden Alps. The catchment includes three aquifer types: a dominant porous aquifer; a fractured dolomite; a karstic limestone aquifer. Employing a simple hydrological model, information about mean transit times of environmental tracers is derived for the groundwater runoff component and several karst springs from the application of the exponential and dispersion flow models to the isotopic input and output data. The mean transit times calculated from a dispersion model with transit times of 4.1 years for ¹⁸O and 4.2 years for tritium, which agree well, allow calculation of total (mobile + stagnant) groundwater storage volume, which is equivalent to 6.6 m of water depth. Direct runoff appears negligible as in many other cases.     

A Global Terrestrial Reference Frame from simulated VLBI and SLR data in view of GGOS

In this study, we assess the impact of two combination strategies, namely local ties (LT) and global ties (GT), on the datum realization of Global Terrestrial Reference Frames in view of the Global Geodetic Observing System requiring 1 mm-accuracy. Simulated Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) data over a 7 year time span was used. The LT results show that the geodetic datum can be best transferred if the precision of the LT is at least 1 mm. Investigating different numbers of LT, the lack of co-located sites on the southern hemisphere is evidenced by differences of 9 mm in translation and rotation compared to the solution using all available LT. For the GT, the combination applying all Earth rotation parameters (ERP), such as pole coordinates and UT1-UTC, indicates that the rotation around the Z axis cannot be adequately transferred from VLBI to SLR within the combination. Applying exclusively the pole coordinates as GT, we show that the datum can be transferred with mm-accuracy within the combination. Furthermore, adding artificial stations in Tahiti and Nigeria to the current VLBI network results in an improvement in station positions by 13 and 12%, respectively, and in ERP by 17 and 11%, respectively. Extending to every day VLBI observations leads to 65% better ERP estimates compared to usual twice-weekly VLBI observations.     

Reporting negative results to stimulate experimental hydrology: discussion of “The role of experimental work in hydrological sciences – insights from a community survey”*

ABSTRACT

Experimental work in hydrology is in decline. Based on a community survey, Blume et al. showed that the hydrological community associates experimental work with greater risks. One of the main issues with experimental work is the higher chance of negative results (defined here as when the expected or wanted result was not observed despite careful experimental design, planning and execution), resulting in a longer and more difficult publishing process. Reporting on negative results would avoid putting time and resources into repeating experiments that lead to negative results, and give experimental hydrologists the scientific recognition they deserve. With this commentary, we propose four potential solutions to encourage reporting on negative results, which might contribute to a stimulation of experimental hydrology.     

4He diffusion in specular hematite

In order to test the chronometer qualities of speculante for the (U + Th)/He dating method, ⁴He release experiments by stepwise heating of two specularites from the Rimbach mineralization locality in the southern Vosgues (France) have been carried out. The diffusion coefficients define linear Arrhenius plots within a temperature interval of 250 to 830 °C, which is suggestive of volume diffusion. Extrapolation of the diffusion behavior to 20° C yields diffusion coefficients (D₂₀ values) smaller than 10^?26 [cm² s^?1] for both hematites with activation energies at 116 [kJ/mole]. The results of our study suggest that specularite is a very helium retentive hematite variety which is capable of quantitatively retaining radiogenic helium over geologic periods of time.     

A land surface data assimilation framework using the land information system: Description and applications

The Land Information System (LIS) is an established land surface modeling framework that integrates various community land surface models, ground measurements, satellite-based observations, high performance computing and data management tools. The use of advanced software engineering principles in LIS allows interoperability of individual system components and thus enables assessment and prediction of hydrologic conditions at various spatial and temporal scales. In this work, we describe a sequential data assimilation extension of LIS that incorporates multiple observational sources, land surface models and assimilation algorithms. These capabilities are demonstrated here in a suite of experiments that use the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and assimilation through direct insertion. In a soil moisture experiment, we discuss the impact of differences in modeling approaches on assimilation performance. Provided careful choice of model error parameters, we find that two entirely different hydrological modeling approaches offer comparable assimilation results. In a snow assimilation experiment, we investigate the relative merits of assimilating different types of observations (snow cover area and snow water equivalent). The experiments show that data assimilation enhancements in LIS are uniquely suited to compare the assimilation of various data types into different land surface models within a single framework. The high performance infrastructure provides adequate support for efficient data assimilation integrations of high computational granularity.     

Competition within the marine microalgae over the polar dark period in the Greenland Sea of high Arctic

Abstract-With the onset of winter, polar marine microalgae would have faced total darkness for aperiod of up to 6 months. A natural autumn community of Arctic sea ice microalgae was collected fordark survival experiments from the Greenland Sea during the ARKTIS-XI/2 Expedition of RV Po-larstern in October 1995. After a dark period of 161 days, species dominance in the algal assemblagehave changed from initially pennate diatoms to small phytoflagellates (<20μm). Over the entire darkperiod, the mean algal growth rate was-0.01 d~(-1). Nearly all diatom species had negative growthrates, while phytoflagellate abundance increased. Resting spore formation during the dark period was ob-served in less than 4.5% of all cells and only for dinoflagellates and the diatom Chaetoceros spp. We as-sume that facultative heterotrophy and energy storage are the main processes enabling survival during thedark Arctic winter. After an increase in light intensity, microalgal cells reacted with fast growth withindays. Phytoffa     

低围压水平下砂的排水行为(英文)

采用干样沉降法制备样品 ,选用静三轴仪对松砂和密砂样在 10 k Pa至 10 0 k Pa的低围压下的排水行为进行了实验研究 ,并对实验结果作了橡皮膜校正 ,在围压为 10 k Pa的密砂实验中 ,轴向应力的校正值可达到 12 %。实验研究表明低围压下松砂的剪胀性非常明显 ,且存在剪应力极值 ;围压越低 ,松砂和密砂的剪应力极值越小 ,达到最大剪应力所对应的剪应变越小。同时还表明低围压范围内相对密度不同 ,砂的应力应变特性不同 ;此外 ,低围压下砂的内摩擦角高于高围压下的值 ,从而在工程上应重视低围压水平下砂土工程参数的合理选取     

Ecosystem engineering by hummock-building earthworms in seasonal wetlands of eastern South Africa: Insights into the mechanics of biomorphodynamic feedbacks in wetland ecosystems

This paper resolves the origin of clay hummock micro-topography in seasonal wetlands of the Drakensberg Foothills, providing a review and appraisal of previously-suggested mechanisms of hummock formation in the context of new field and laboratory data. Field surveys revealed neo-formation of clay hummocks in a river channel that had been abandoned in c.1984. Fresh earthworm castings were located atop hummocks protruding from inundated abandoned channel margins. Earthworm castings, and sediment cores taken in hummocks and adjacent hollows, were analysed for soil-adsorbed carbon and nitrogen using an HCN analyser, and for ²¹⁰Pb activity using alpha-geochronology. ²¹⁰Pb activity profiles suggest relative enrichment of the isotope in hummocks, and relative depletion in adjacent hollows. Earthworm castings are characterised by very high ²¹⁰Pb activity, as well as high C and N contents. Hummocks have significantly higher C and N contents than adjacent hollows. Results suggest that it is the foraging activity of earthworms in litter-rich seasonal wetland hollows, and repeated excretion of castings atop adjacent hummocks, that is responsible for the elemental enrichment observed. The paper presents a conceptual model of hummock formation in wetlands through interactions between hydrogeomorphology and earthworm activity, and illustrates a mechanism of biogeomorphic inheritance through which ordered patterns of preferential flow can emerge in ecosystems. Further implications of hummock formation and nodal accumulation of nutrients are considered in relation to wetland resilience and regulatory ecosystem service provision.© 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.