Comparison of scenario‐neutral approaches for estimation of climate change impacts on flood characteristics

Scenario‐neutral assessments of climate change impact on floods analyse the sensitivity of a catchment to a range of changes in selected meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation. The key challenges of the approach are the choice of the meteorological variables and statistics thereof and how to generate time series representing altered climatologies of the selected variables. Different methods have been proposed to achieve this, and it remains unclear if and to which extent they result in comparable flood change projections. Here, we compare projections of annual maximum floods (AMFs) derived from three different scenario‐neutral methods for a prealpine study catchment. The methods chosen use different types of meteorological data, namely, observations, regional climate model output, and weather generator data. The different time series account for projected changes in the seasonality of temperature and precipitation, in the occurrence statistics of precipitation, and of daily precipitation extremes. Resulting change in mean AMF peak magnitudes and volumes differs in sign between the methods (range of ?6% to +7% for flood peak magnitudes and ?11% to +14% for flood volumes). Moreover, variability of projected peak magnitudes and flood volumes depends on method with one approach leading to a generally larger spread. The differences between the methods vary depending on whether peak magnitudes or flood volumes are considered and different relationships between peak magnitude and volume change result. These findings can be linked to differing flood regime changes among the three approaches. The study highlights that considering selected aspects of climate change only when performing scenario‐neutral studies may lead to differing representations of flood generating processes by the approaches and thus different quantifications of flood change. As each method comes with its own strengths and weaknesses, it is recommended to combine several scenario‐neutral approaches to obtain more robust results.     

Floodplain development in an engineered setting

Engineered flood bypasses, or simplified conveyance floodplains, are natural laboratories in which to observe floodplain development and therefore present an opportunity to assess delivery to and sedimentation within a specific class of floodplain. The effects of floods in the Sacramento River basin were investigated by analyzing hydrograph characteristics, estimating event‐based sediment discharges and reach erosion/deposition through its bypass system and observing sedimentation patterns with field data. Sediment routing for a large, iconic flood suggests high rates of sedimentation in major bypasses, which is corroborated by data for one bypass area from sedimentation pads, floodplain cores and sediment removal reporting from a government agency. These indicate a consistent spatial pattern of high sediment accumulation both upstream and downstream of lateral flow diversions and negligible sedimentation in a ‘hydraulic shadow’ directly downstream of a diversion weir. The pads located downstream of the shadow recorded several centimeters of deposition during a moderate flood in 2006, increasing downstream to a peak of ～10 cm thick and thinning rapidly thereafter. Flood deposits in the sediment cores agree with this spatial pattern, containing discrete sedimentation layers (from preceding floods) that increase in thickness with distance downstream of the bypass entrance to several decimeters thick at the peak and then thin downstream. These patterns suggest that a quasi‐natural physical process of levee construction by advective overbank transport and deposition of sediment is operating. The results improve understanding of the evolution of bypass flood control structures, the transport and deposition of sediment within these environments and the evolution of one class of natural levee systems. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An uncertainty parameter of historical earthquakes – the record threshold

In this study we use the term record threshold of a historical earthquake for the seismic intensity (EMS92) in an area where a given percentage P of the serial sources of places have recorded the event as been noticed there. The record threshold is understood as a limiting measure, below which warranted statements about the intensity cannot be given. P defines the acceptable uncertainty and can be chosen according to the demands of the special task, for instance, 10%. It is shown that the record threshold of historical earthquakes is not the same as the human perceptibility threshold of earthquakes of the 20th Century. The historical sources have to be selected using criteria such as completeness and homogenity of data. This demand is approximately met by inquiries for sources covering an area greater than the expected felt area of the historical earthquake.The Friuli event of 25 January 1348 is presented as an example. It is compared with the well known Friuli event of 6 May 1976 in order to calibrate its intensity. The record threshold of the 1348 event was probably IV or less than IV EMS92 for P = 10%. The method, properly modified, can be applied to different cultural epochs and areas. This result throws a light on the possible error in determining the felt area of historical events.     

Spatial patterns of frequent floods in Switzerland

This study investigates the spatial dependence of high and extreme streamflows in Switzerland across different scales. First, using 56 runoff time series from Swiss rivers, we determined the average length of high-streamflow events for different levels of extremeness. Second, a dependence measure that expressed the probability that streamflow peaks would meet or exceed streamflow peaks at a conditioning site was used to describe and map the spatial extent of joint streamflow-peak occurrences across Switzerland. Third, we analysed the spatial patterns of jointly occurring high streamflows using cluster analysis to identify groups that react similarly in terms of flood frequency at different sites. The results indicate that, on a coarse scale, high and extreme streamflows are asymptotically independent in the main Swiss basins. Additionally, mesoscale tributaries in the main basins show distinct flood regions across river systems.     

Proposal for applying a component-based mixture approach for ecotoxicological assessment of fracturing fluids

Hydraulic fracturing is increasingly being used to produce gas from unconventional resource sites for energy supply. Therefore, concerns about risks of this technology related to human health and the environment have to be addressed. Among the major issues is the potential contamination of surrounding water systems by chemical additives used in fracturing fluids. In this study, the ecotoxicological hazards of fracturing fluids, both, their individual components (chemicals) as well as their mixtures (product) were assessed using a component-based mixture approach. For five exemplary fracturing fluids, 40–90 wt% of the contained substances could unambiguously be defined in their chemical identity. The concentrations used in the applied fluid mixture were considered as (maximum) exposure concentrations. For components with mass fractions between 10 and 74 wt%, the effect concentrations for acute and chronic toxicity of fish, daphnia and algae were retrieved from experimental databases and through predictive modeling. The hazard indices calculated from the ratio of exposure to effect concentration were >1 for all fracturing fluids, using different scenarios. This indicated a hazard from the undiluted fracturing fluids. The assessment framework presented in this study allows for dealing with data gaps and uncertainties in a tiered fashion and in particular accommodates for combined effects resulting from chemical mixtures. It might be employed for ecotoxicological risk assessment of products containing chemical mixtures and optimization of their environmental performance.     

Precise Positioning of Ocean Bottom Seismometer by Using Acoustic Transponder and CTD

We have obtained precise estimates of the position of Ocean Bottom Seismometers (OBS) on the sea bottom. Such estimates are usually uncertain due to their free falling deployment. This uncertainty is small enough, or is correctable, with OBS spacing of more than 10 km usually employed in crustal studies. But, for example, if the spacing is only 200 m for OBS reflection studies, estimates of the position with an accuracy of the order of 10 m or more is required.The determination was carried out with the slant range data, ship position data and a 1D acoustic velocity structure calculated from Conductivity–Temperature–Depth (CTD) data, if they are available. The slant range data were obtained by an acoustic transponder system designed for the sinker releasing of the OBS or travel time data of direct water wave arrivals by airgun shooting. The ship position data was obtained by a single GPS or DGPS. The method of calculation was similar to those used for earthquake hypocenter determination.The results indicate that the accuracy of determined OBS positions is enough for present OBS experiments, which becomes order of 1 m by using the DGPS and of less than 10 m by using the single GPS, if we measure the distance from several positions at the sea surface by using a transponder system which is not designed for the precise ranging. The geometry of calling positions is most important to determine the OBS position, even if we use the data with larger error, such as the direct water wave arrival data. The 1D acoustic velocity structure should be required for the correct depth of the OBS. Although it is rare that we use a CTD, even an empirical velocity structure works well.     

The influence of shrimp farms organic waste management on chemical water quality

We evaluated the physical–chemical properties and nutrient concentrations in two shrimp ponds under conventional management, intensive (I-P) and semi-intensive (SI-P), and one under organic management (O-P), three days after loading and before stoking. The mean’s total alkalinity concentrations were 2.26 ± 0.04 mM, 2.28 ± 0.01 mM and 2.59 ± 0.01 mM, respectively for I-P, SI-P and O-P. Bicarbonate and carbonate accounted for 62% and 37% in I-P, 64% and 36% in SI-P and 83–17% in O-P, respectively. Aragonite and calcite were oversaturated around Ω = 5. Mean total phosphate (TP) concentrations were 441.37 ± 92.06 μg/L, 449 ± 48 μg/L and 473.64 ± 84.17 μg/L, under I-P SI-P and O-P management respectively. Following this sequence, NO₃⁻ concentration was 2.98 ± 0.7 μg/L, 1.16 ± 0.16 μg/L and 0.32 ± 0.12 μg/L, under I-P, SI-P and O-P management respectively. Thus, the data suggest that different management of farm organic waste leads to different chemical water quality.     

Stellar wind for non-negligible gravitational potential of the atmosphere

We consider a spherically symmetric, isothermal and stationary stellar atmosphere whose gravitational potential cannot be neglected. If , the ratio of the density on the base of the corona to the mean density of the star is not zero, the density vanishes at infinity for any solution of the hydrodynamic equations. We deduce the maximum mass loss depending on two dimensionless parameters, the ratio of the gravitational to the thermal energy and . This mass loss has itself a maximum for =1/3.