Modelling surface‐water depression storage in a Prairie Pothole Region

In this study, the Precipitation‐Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was used to simulate changes in surface‐water depression storage in the 1,126‐km² Upper Pipestem Creek basin located within the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. The Prairie Pothole Region is characterized by millions of small water bodies (or surface‐water depressions) that provide numerous ecosystem services and are considered an important contribution to the hydrologic cycle. The Upper Pipestem PRMS model was extracted from the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Hydrologic Model (NHM), developed to support consistent hydrologic modelling across the conterminous United States. The Geospatial Fabric database, created for the USGS NHM, contains hydrologic model parameter values derived from datasets that characterize the physical features of the entire conterminous United States for 109,951 hydrologic response units. Each hydrologic response unit in the Geospatial Fabric was parameterized using aggregated surface‐water depression area derived from the National Hydrography Dataset Plus, an integrated suite of application‐ready geospatial datasets. This paper presents a calibration strategy for the Upper Pipestem PRMS model that uses normalized lake elevation measurements to calibrate the parameters influencing simulated fractional surface‐water depression storage. Results indicate that inclusion of measurements that give an indication of the change in surface‐water depression storage in the calibration procedure resulted in accurate changes in surface‐water depression storage in the water balance. Regionalized parameterization of the USGS NHM will require a proxy for change in surface‐storage to accurately parameterize surface‐water depression storage within the USGS NHM.     

Variability of carbon dioxide flux from tropical (Cerrado) hydroelectric reservoirs

Hydroelectric reservoirs generate energy without significant combustion of fossil fuels. However, these systems can, potentially, emit greenhouse gases (GHG’s) at a rate which may be significant at the global scale, and, possible, co-equal, per kilowatt-hour, to that from conventional coal or oil-fired systems. Although much of the new construction of hydroelectric reservoirs is in the tropics, most of the data on GHG emissions comes from temperate regions. Further, much of the existing data on reservoir gas emissions comes from single sites, usually near the terminal dams. Large tropical reservoirs often involve the impoundments of river systems with complex morphology which in turn can cause spatial heterogeneity in gas flux. We evaluated spatial and seasonal variability in CO₂ concentrations and gas flux for five large (50–1,400 km²) reservoirs in the Cerrado region of Brazil. Most of data set (87% of all measurements) showed CO₂ supersaturation and net efflux to the atmosphere. There was as much or more variation in pCO₂ over space and among seasons. The large studied reservoirs showed different zones in terms of CO₂ emission because those fluxes are dependent on flooded biomass, watershed input of organic matter and dam operation regime. Here we demonstrate that the reservoirs in the Brazilian Cerrado have low rates of CO₂ emissions compared to existing global comparisons. Our results suggest that ignoring the spatial variability can lead to more than 25% error in total system gas flux.     

Velocity profiles and basal stresses in natural debris flows

The internal deformation within debris flows holds essential information on dynamics and flow resistance of such mass-wasting processes. Systematic measurements of velocity profiles in real-scale debris flows are not yet available. Additionally, data on basal stresses of the solid and the fluid phase are rare. Here, we present and analyse measurements of vertical velocity profiles in two debris flows naturally occurring in the Gadria Creek, Italy. The method is based on cross-correlation of paired conductivity signals from an array of sensors installed on a fin-shaped wall located in the middle of the channel. Additionally, we measure normal stress and pore fluid pressure by two force plates with integrated pressure transducers. We find internal deformation throughout the flows. Only at the very front was some en-bloc movement observed. Velocity profiles varied from front to tail and between flows. For one debris flow, pore fluid pressure close to normal stress was measured, whereas the other flow was less liquefied. The median shear rates were mostly less than 5 s⁻¹ and Savage numbers at the basal layer ranged from 0.01 to 1. Our results highlight the variable nature of debris flows and provide quantitative data on shear rate and basal stress distribution to help guide model development for hazard assessment and landscape evolution. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

How fast does tufa grow? Very high-resolution measurement of the tufa growth rate on artificial substrates by the development of a contactless image-based modelling device

Accurate determination of the tufa growth rate (TGR) is required to answer the fundamental geomorphological question of tufa evolution. The TGR has been measured by various direct and indirect methods. One of the most popular direct methods uses modified micro-erosion meter (MEM), which has several drawbacks. Here, we present for the first time a coordinate measuring macro-photogrammetry device (CMD) for monitoring the TGR in a contactless manner. The CMD was applied on 28 limestone plates at 14 locations within the Skradinski buk area, Croatia, and measurements were performed in the laboratory. The TGR was derived from digital tufa high-resolution models (DTHRMs). The accuracy of the device was evaluated using state-of-the-art three-dimensional (3D) scanners and error calculation at checkpoints. Moreover, the precision was evaluated with the split test (n = 5). A total of 74 DTHRMs with a spatial resolution of 0.0236 mm were created. The TGR ranged from 0.327 to 19.302 mm a⁻¹, with an average of 5.771 mm a⁻¹. A higher TGR was observed on the limestone plates near mosses, located in fast and turbulent water rather than in stagnant water. We found that specific micro-environmental factors (e.g. proximity to moss) positively affected tufa growth. Erosion events were observed, as well as the presence of aquatic insect larvae (Simuliidae and Chironomidae), which positively affected tufa growth. The CMD is a precise and accurate device that does not suffer from the drawbacks of the MEM method and has many other advantages. It has a high capability of tufa erosion detection, enables the identification of macroinvertebrates, and multispectral or hyperspectral cameras can be mounted on the device for spectral reflectance analysis of the tufa surface. The CMD can be applied in any study requiring a sub-millimetre data quality and involving the comparison of consecutive 3D models and derivation of various parameters of smaller objects. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Delineating extent and magnitude of river flooding to lakes across a northern delta using water isotope tracers

Hydrological monitoring in complex, dynamic northern floodplain landscapes is challenging, but increasingly important as a consequence of multiple stressors. The Peace-Athabasca Delta in northern Alberta, Canada, is a Ramsar Wetland of International Importance reliant on episodic river ice-jam flood events to recharge abundant perched lakes and wetlands. Improved and systematic monitoring of landscape-scale hydrological connectivity among freshwater ecosystems (rivers, channels, wetlands, and lakes) is needed to guide stewardship decisions in the face of climate change and upstream industrial development. Here, we use water isotope compositions, supplemented by measurements of specific conductivity and field observations, from 68 lakes and 9 river sites in May 2018 to delineate the extent and magnitude of spring ice-jam induced flooding along the Peace and Athabasca rivers. Lake-specific estimates of input water isotope composition (δ_I) were modelled after accounting for influence of evaporative isotopic enrichment. Then, using the distinct isotopic signature of input water sources, we develop a set of binary mixing models and estimate the proportion of input to flooded lakes attributable to river floodwater and precipitation (snow or rain). This approach allowed identification of areas and magnitude of flooding that were not captured by other methods, including direct observations from flyovers, and to demarcate flow pathways in the delta. We demonstrate water isotope tracers as an efficient and effective monitoring tool for delineating spatial extent and magnitude of an important hydrological process and elucidating connectivity in the Peace-Athabasca Delta, an approach that can be readily adopted at other floodplain landscapes.     

An evaluation of the hysteresis in chemical concentration–discharge (C–Q) relationships from drained,intensively managed grasslands in southwest England

This study examined the hysteresis exhibited in concentration–discharge (C–Q) relationships in the runoff from four hydrologically separated fields (catchments) at an intensively managed grassland. The objectives were to examine C–Q relationships constructed from high-resolution time series of flow, temperature, pH, conductivity, nitrate and turbidity, and their implications for hydrological processes. High-resolution datasets from the quality assured records of the Rothamsted Research North Wyke Farm Platform in the UK were examined using a graphical method and cross-correlation statistics. The study found that storm events based C–Q hysteresis reflects the cross-correlation that is generally hidden in time series analysis of large datasets, and that although Q and water quality variables can be effectively influenced by catchment size, the C–Q relationship is less significantly influenced. The dominant C–Q relationships of the water variables in the study area reflect that saturated overland flow was prevalent during the study period in the catchments, while the CCF results indicate coupled transfer of sediments and solute in the area at lag ≥ 0.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR M. D. Fidelibus     

Stuart vortices on a beta-plane

We study an inviscid mixing layer in the beta-plane model of a rotating fluid. Using a weakly nonlinear expansion, we find two-dimensional finite-amplitude waves of permanent form; these solutions are similar to those found earlier for a non-rotating mixing layer, but lose their symmetry because of the rotation. These vortices may propagate with constant phase velocity, the propagation speed being chosen to make the expansion as regular as possible. Alternative solutions are produced using a nonlinear critical layer analysis to remedy potential singularities which appear in the weakly nonlinear expansion. These alternative solutions also lose their symmetry because of the rotation and may also propagate with constant phase velocity.     

Thermodynamic Feedback between Clouds and the Ocean Surface Mixed Layer

A cloud-ocean planetary boundary layer (OPBL) feedback mechanism is presented and tested in this paper. Water vapor, evaporated from the ocean surface or transported by the large-scale air flow, often forms convective clouds under a conditionally unstable lapse rate. The variable cloud cover and rainfall may have positive and negative feedback with the ocean mixed layer temperature and salinity structure. The coupling of the simplified Kuo’s (1965) cumulus cloud model to the Kraus-Turner’s (1967) ocean mixed layer model shows the existence of this feedback mechanism. The theory also predicts the generation of low frequency oscillation in the atmosphere and oceans.     

Streamflow Modelling: A Primer on Applications,Approaches and Challenges

This article examines the current practice of streamflow modelling, a field under development for over a century. A sample of the wide range of assessment and planning applications of streamflow models is presented. The diversity in the use of these models is mirrored in the diversity of model complexity, and modelling approaches ranging from empirical to physically based and from lumped to fully distributed are described with examples. Predictions derived from hydrological models are subject to many sources of error; these are discussed along with methods for error minimization or anticipation. Model error is generally quantified using an ensemble of forecasts meant to sample the range of predictive uncertainty. This ensemble can be used to generate reliable probabilistic forecasts of hydrological quantities if all sources of error are accounted for. To date, applications of ensemble methods in streamflow forecasting have typically focused on only one or two error sources. A challenge will be to develop ensemble streamflow forecasts that sample a wider range of predictive uncertainty.

[Traduit par la rédaction] Le présent article examine la pratique actuelle en modélisation d’écoulement fluvial, un domaine qui évolue depuis plus d'un siècle. Nous présentons un échantillon de la vaste gamme d'applications d’évaluation et de planification des modèles d’écoulement fluvial. La diversité dans l'utilisation de ces modèles est le reflet de la diversité dans la complexité des modèles, et nous décrivons à l'aide d'exemples les approches de modélisation qui peuvent être empiriques ou basées sur la physique ou encore localisées ou entièrement réparties. Plusieurs sources d'erreur peuvent affecter les prévisions issues des modèles hydrologiques; nous discutons de ces sources d'erreur de même que des méthodes de réduction ou d'anticipation des erreurs. L'erreur du modèle est généralement quantifiée à l'aide d'un ensemble de prévisions servant à échantillonner la grandeur de l'incertitude prévisionnelle. Cet ensemble peut servir à produire des prévisions probabilistes fiables des grandeurs hydrologiques si toutes les sources d'erreur sont prises en compte. Jusqu’à maintenant, les applications des méthodes d'ensemble à la prévision des écoulements fluviaux n'ont généralement tenu compte que d'une ou deux sources d'erreur. Ce sera un défi de mettre au point des prévisions d'ensemble d’écoulement fluvial qui échantillonnent un plus large éventail d'incertitude prévisionnelle.     

Mass-cargo-affine industries and climate change

The impact of low water periods on inland navigation and companies is well known by ship-operators and companies that rely on this mode of transport but it is rarely a topic of climate impact research. As climate change might affect the frequency and intensity of low water periods, quantifying the impact of climate change on companies and the effects of possible adaptation measures is vital. In this study, we present a model for quantifying the impact of low water events on companies which rely on inland navigation and apply that model to three anonymous iron and steel companies along the River Rhine. The deviation of optimal storage, the storage level that evens out risk vs. fixed capital, is used in the model to measure the vulnerability of companies. The results show that, depending on the climate scenario, the companies might have to deal with either one or five additional days of empty storage in the near future (2021–2050) and up to nine more days by the 2071–2100 period. Seasonal analysis shows that, consistent with the change in the river discharge, the biggest deviations from optimal storage level occur in the late summer/early autumn. Analysis of adaptation options shows that companies would need to increase storage capacity by 2.5 % for the 2021–2050 period, and by 25 % by the 2071–2100 period. A reduction of ship sizes is not an adaptation option for the three companies in this study, because these companies already use relatively small vessels. This is however an efficient adaptation option for companies which employ larger vessels for transport. Another adaptation option would be to reduce the share of transportation via inland waters, but the feasibility of this option depends on the availability and cost of other modes of transport.