Mistreatment of the economic impacts of extreme events in the Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change has focused debate on the costs and benefits of alternative courses of action on climate change. This refocusing has helped to move debate away from science of the climate system and on to issues of policy. However, a careful examination of the Stern Review's treatment of the economics of extreme events in developed countries, such as floods and tropical cyclones, shows that the report is selective in its presentation of relevant impact studies and repeats a common error in impacts studies by confusing sensitivity analyses with projections of future impacts. The Stern Review's treatment of extreme events is misleading because it overestimates the future costs of extreme weather events in developed countries by an order of magnitude. Because the Stern Report extends these findings globally, the overestimate propagates through the report's estimate of future global losses. When extreme events are viewed more comprehensively the resulting perspective can be used to expand the scope of choice available to decision makers seeking to grapple with future disasters in the context of climate change. In particular, a more comprehensive analysis underscores the importance of adaptation in any comprehensive portfolio of responses to climate change.     

Spectral Diagnostics of an Active Region Observed by the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS)

The EUV spectrum of a solar active region observed by SERTS-89 is used to estimate physical parameters such as electron density, elemental abundance and inhomogeneity in the emitting source. A total of 13 ions, namely, Neiv-vi, Mgv-ix, Sivii-x and Sx, are studied in the SERTS spectral range 170-450 Ú, providing plasma diagnostics at temperatures between10₅ –10⁶ K. Attention is called to results derived from ion pairs of different elements that are formed over similar temperature regimes, which allow special checks on the standard assumptions of spectral analyses. Some EUV lines, not originally reported in the SERTS-89 spectrum, are shown to have measureable intensities and are indicated for future observations.     

Separation of local and regional information in distorted GDS response functions by hypothetical event analysis

Electromagnetic investigations are usually intended to examine regional structures where induction takes place at a given period range. However, the regional information is often distorted by galvanic effects at local conductivity boundaries. Bahr (1985) and Groom & Bailey (1989) developed a physical distortion model for decomposing the MT impedance tensor, based upon local galvanic distortion of a regional 2-D electromagnetic field. We have extended their method to predict the magnetic variation fields created at an array of sites. The magnetic response functions at periods around 1000 s may be distorted by large-scale inhomogeneities in the upper or middle crust. In this period range, the data measured by a magnetometer array contain common information that can be extracted if the data set is treated as a unit, for example by using hypothetical event analysis. With this technique it is always possible to recover the regional strike direction from distorted data, even if a strong, spatially varying regional vertical field component is present in the data set. The determination of the regional impedance phases, on the other hand, is far more sensitive to deviations from the physical distortion model.
The approach has been used to investigate the Iapetus data set. For the array, which covers an area of 200  km × 300  km in northern England/southern Scotland, the technique revealed a common regional strike azimuth of ca . N125° E in the period range 500–2000  s. This direction differs from the strike indicated by the induction arrows, which seem influenced mainly by local current concentrations along the east–west-striking Northumberland Trough and a NE–SW-striking mid-crustal conductor. Both impedance phases are positive and differ by ca . 10°, which supports the assumptions of distortion fields in the data set and that the regional structure is 2-D.     

The use of infauna by juvenile Penaeus aztecus Ives and Penaeus setiferus (Linnaeus)

Penaeus aztecus Ives, the brown shrimp, and Penaeus setiferus (Linnaeus), the white shrimp, co-occur in Texas salt marshes as juveniles. Although their life cycles are similar, evidence indicates that the species utilize different resources for the primary faunal element of their diets. Prey selection and growth studies have shown that brown shrimp successfully remove infauna from natural sediment. Further, a diet of polychaetes, whether alone or in combination with algae, produced growth in the species. Brown shrimp appear to be trophically linked to infaunal populations, thus the structure and dynamics of the benthic community may directly affect local brown shrimp productivity. Areas dominated by surface-dwelling polychaetes as opposed to deep burrowers may provide more accessible foraging opportunities for juvenile brown shrimp. By contrast, white shrimp neither removed infauna nor grew to a significant degree when provided polychaetes or amphipods as food. White shrimp are omnivorous but do not rely on infaunal material to the same extent as brown shrimp. The primary faunal element in the diet of white shrimp has not yet been identified. The dietary differences between the two species may play a role in determining which species dominates in regions with varying marsh accessibility. Although not the only factors influencing penaeid survival and growth, prey choice and availability may greatly affect production and local success of penaeid populations. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY081 00013     

Food habits and growth of juvenile striped bassMorone saxatilis, in Albemarle Sound, North Carolina

Juvenile striped bass,Morone saxatilis, collected in Albemarle Sound, North Carolina, during 1988–1992 were examined for food habits and growth. Ages estimated from otoliths collected in 1990–1992 were used to determine individual spawning dates and growth in total length and weight. The majority of striped bass examined had been spawned in mid-May 1990, mid-May to early June 1991, and June to early July 1992. Mysid shrimp was the dominant prey taxon and was consumed in all size classes examined. Mysid shrimp were consumed at twice the rate of copepods and 10 times more frequently than cladocerans. Fishes were a minor prey taxon. The number of mysid shrimp consumed increased with increasing length of striped bass. A higher percentage of mysid shrimp were consumed in the more saline waters of the central sound than in the less saline western sound. The opposite trend was found for consumed fishes. Increases in total length were linear from July to October, but increases in weight were not. Weight increased less rapidly in younger striped bass and more rapidly in older striped bass than either length or age. Quadratic and logarithmic equations accurately predicted weight from measures of total length but weight could not be predicted from age nor could age be predicted from total length. Estimating growth from total length at time of capture may be comparing fish of different ages. Age estimation from otoliths allowed us to determine that growth rates were similar among years and that differences in observed total length over time were due to different spawning times and not growth rates.     

A comparison of tropical oceanic heat fluxes determined by airborne eddy correlation and shipboard bulk aerodynamic techniques

Vertical turbulent transports of latent and sensible heat through the tropical marine boundary layer were measured with ship and airborne instruments in the GATE experimental area. The measurements from the two systems are compared for cases of simultaneous sampling in the same locations during undisturbed weather and during the wakes of convective disturbances. The paired average fluxes from the airborne eddy correlation measurements and the shipboard bulk aerodynamic measurements, for undisturbed weather, are related with correlation coefficients in the range of 0.6 to 0.9; the correlations depend primarily on stratifications of the aircraft data according to sampling altitude (15–153 m msl) and flight pattern relative to the mean wind. The agreement between the two types of measurements is best for ship data paired with aircraft samples from the lowest altitudes (15 and 30 m) and from alongwind rather than crosswind flights, as is appropriate since the stationary ships monitor the alongwind characteristics of the turbulence. The use of long (1–3 hr) versus short (10 min) ship samples did not significantly affect the comparability with the aircraft samples during undisturbed periods.The good baseline comparability demonstrated by the undisturbed-weather comparisons was applied to interpret the results from the wakes behind showers. Although these paired measurements were few, not only the sensible heat, but also the latent heat flux was shown to decrease substantially with altitude from 10 m to at least 150 m in the wakes, where the mixing was relatively intense. Variations in the fluxes were much greater at the higher level than nearer the sea surface.     

Titaniferous phlogopites from the leucite lamproites of the West Kimberley area,Western Australia

Phlogopites in the wolgidites, fitzroyites and cedricites (leucite lamproites) of the West Kimberley area range in composition from titaniferous phlogopite to titaniferous tetraferriphlogopite. Two distinct compositional trends are present. In wolgidites micas are characterized by strong total iron enrichment, moderate Al and Mg depletion and little enrichment in tetrahedral ferric iron. Micas in fitzroyites and cedricites are characterized by strong depletion in Al and strong enrichment in tetrahedral ferric iron at approximately constant Mg contents. Individual centers of fitzroyite intrusion are characterized by distinct mica TiO₂ contents. The phlogopite compositional trends at low pressures are very different to those of kimberlite micas. An origin of these lamproites involving differentiation of a kimberlitic magma is considered unlikely.     

The respective effects of water vapor and temperature on the turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat

Various aspects of the Brook correction for the effects of moisture fluctuations or gradients on atmospheric specific heat and, consequently, on the vertical flux of sensible heat are discussed, and additional forms of the complete and approximate equations are derived. Corollary expressions for the influence of temperature fluctuations or gradients on vertical latent heat flux are presented. Errors due to neglecting these temperature and moisture effects on the respective fluxes are compared in terms of the Bowen ratio. Either of these normally neglected effects can change the direction (sign) and very substantially affect the magnitude of the corresponding flux. The effects sometimes compensate in the total, sensible plus latent, heat flux. Calculations include practical examples from the very different climates of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Great Plains of Nebraska.     

Application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios: Reflections and lessons learnt

The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios have become the standard reference for climate change in the UK since their release in 2002. This paper describes and reflects on the ways in which they have been applied. It then identifies some strengths, weaknesses and barriers to their application, and extracts key lessons that may inform the development and provision of future climate change scenarios.Analysis of the application of UKCIP02 shows that the scenarios have been used primarily as a communication device, as well as for scientific research and to inform policy and decision-making on climate change. They have played a critical role in raising awareness on climate change and in engaging organisations in the need to adapt. Their presentation in an accessible style, and their availability in a variety of formats, greatly facilitated their uptake. However, analysis has also revealed weaknesses which served as barriers to their uptake. Some of these, such as file format and accessibility issues, were readily overcome through technical solutions. Others, such as the issue of how to use uncertain information in decision-making, have only been partially addressed and remain an outstanding challenge for future scenario packages. Two key lessons have emerged which may benefit the provision of future climate scenarios in the UK and elsewhere. First, it is not enough to simply make climate change scenarios available. Their provision must be accompanied by ongoing guidance and support to ensure widespread and appropriate uptake. Second, on-going dialogue between those providing scenarios and the communities using them is fundamental to constructively meet the challenges associated with delivering credible scenarios that balance user requirements and expectations with what the science can deliver.