Streaming motions of galaxy clusters within 12 000 km s−1– II. New photometric data for the Fundamental Plane

We present new R -band photometric data for 447 galaxies, gathered for the 'Streaming Motions of Abell Clusters' (SMAC) project. The data comprise 629 individual measurements of the Fundamental Plane (FP) parameters effective radius ( R _e) and surface brightness (〈 μ 〉_e), derived from r ^1/4-law profile fitting. More than a third of the galaxies were observed more than once. The photometric precision is ∼0.02 mag as judged from comparisons of aperture photometry between repeat observations of galaxies. The combination     which enters into the Fundamental Plane relation, has internal uncertainties of ∼0.008, corresponding to < 2 per cent in estimated distance. Taken individually, the (correlated) internal errors in R _e and 〈 μ 〉_e are ∼8 per cent and ∼0.12 mag respectively. Comparisons with literature data constrain the external random errors to ≲5 per cent in distance (per observation), which is small in comparison to the ∼20 per cent scatter in the FP. The data will form part of a merged catalogue of FP parameters, presented in a companion paper.     

Nitrogen on Triton

The near-infrared spectrum of Triton is characterized by strong absorption bands of methane, probably in the solid state. An additional absorption band at 2.16 μm is tentatively identified as the density-induced (2-0) band of molecular nitrogen in the liquid state. The fundamental overtones of this band system cannot presently be observed because of limitations of the terrestrial atmosphere or spectral signal precision. Using the absorption coefficient for this band derived from laboratory observations and from the literature, it is calculated that Triton must have a layer of nitrogen at least tens of centimeters deep over much of its surface; this quantity is plausible in terms of the cosmic abundance of nitrogen and by comparison with Titan where a massive atmosphere of nitrogen exists. The Triton spectrum has been modeled with liquid nitrogen and solid methane, and it is found that the shape of the continuum in two spectral regions can be properly accounted for by adding a spectral component corresponding to fine-grained water frost. It is speculated that yet another component, a dark, solid, photochemical derivative of methane, may occur as a trace contaminant of the surface materials. If much of the surface of Triton is liquid, the radiometric observations of the satellite must be reinterpreted to derive the radius and surface albedo. If there is liquid nitrogen exposed on the surface, the atmosphere of Triton is probably dominated by nitrogen rather than methane because of the much higher vapor pressure of the former. At the calculated subsolar temperature of Triton, the vapor pressure of nitrogen implies a surface atmospheric pressure in the range 0.13 to 0.30 atm.     

Arrival-time analysis for a millisecond pulsar

Arrival times from a fast, quiet pulsar can be used to obtain accurate determinations of pulsar parameters. In the case of the millisecond pulsar, PSR 1937 + 214, the remarkably small rms residual to the timing fit indicates that precise measurements of position, proper motion and perhaps even trigonometric parallax will be possible (Backer 1984). The variances in these parameters, however, will depend strongly on the nature of the underlying noise spectrum. We demonstrate that for very red spectrai.e. those dominated by low-frequency noise, the uncertainties can be larger than the present estimates (based on a white-noise model) and can even grow with the observation period. The possibility of improved parameter estimation through prewhitening’ the data and the application of these results to other pulsar observations are briefly discussed. The post-fit rms residual of PSR 1937 + 214 may be used to limit the energy density of a gravitational radiation background at periods of a few months to years. However, fitting the pulsar position and pulse-emission times filters out significant amounts of residual power, especially for observation periods of less than three years. Consequently the present upper bound on the energy density of gravitational waves Ω_g <3 × 10^-4 R _Μs ² , though already more stringent than any other available, is not as restrictive as had been previously estimated. The present limit is insufficient to exclude scenarios which use primordial cosmic strings for galaxy formation, but should improve rapidly with time. On leave from Raman Research Institute, Bangalore 560080, India.     

Seismic anisotropy — the state of the art: II

Summary. The theory, causes, observations, and possible applications of seismic anisotropy in the Earth have developed considerably since the previous state of the art paper was published in 1977. The behaviour of waves in layered anisotropic media is now much better understood and the evidence for seismic anisotropy indicates that anisotropy is likely to be present throughout much of the crust and upper mantle. The top few hundred kilometres of the mantle appears to be anisotropic with the orientations aligned by the present or palaeo stress-field. The upper part of the crust is frequently anisotropic, probably due to cracks differentially aligned by the non-lithostatic stresses. The possibility of being able to monitor crack geometry by seismic techniques opens a wide range of applications in currently important activities.     

Morphology, sedimentation processes, and growth pattern of the Amazon Deep-Sea Fan

The Amazon Deep-Sea Fan began to form in the Early Miocene and is characterized by a highly meandering distributary channel system. On the middle fan, these leveed channels coalesce to form two broad levee complexes. Older, now buried levee complexes are also observed within the fan. These levee complexes grow through channel migration, branching, and avulsion. Probably only one or two channels are active at any given time. Sediments reach the fan only during glacio-eustatic low stands of sea level. Coarse sediments largely by-pass the upper and middle fan via the channels and are deposited on the lower fan. Margin setting represents fan and/or source area     

Global patterns in cloud forms on Mars

Mariner 9 images and all Viking orbiter images through July 1979 were searched for cloud forms. A computer-accessible catalog was assembled, consisting of a classification of cloud type (lee wav wave, for example) and properties (directionality, wavelength, for example). Lee wave directionality shows a pattern and seasonal variation at high latitudes which is consistent with predictions of theoretical modeling. Fog and haze occurrence shows no obvious correlation with water abundance or any other simple causal factor. Lee waves are rare at equatorial latitudes. Plumes (probably dust) occur preferentially at locations where strong boundary layer convection is expected.     

A linkage criterion for segmented normal faults

A detailed field study of 39 centimetre- to metre-scale relay ramps from two outcrops was performed to investigate the development of a linkage criterion for segmented normal faults. We analysed the displacement distribution and the geometry of fault arrays containing three types of relay ramp: open, linked, and fully breached, in order to identify which parameters are relevant to fault linkage, and to establish a linkage criterion. Each relay ramp geometry has a specific graphical field on a relay displacement–separation diagram. The field including all the linked geometries (initiation of linkage) separates open and fully breached relay ramps and is interpreted as a value of relay displacement to separation ratio for which faults link during their overlap. A ‘linkage threshold’, in each studied fault system, is defined as the best-fit linear trend of linked relays. We discuss the scaling and the variability of the linkage criterion using published datasets from a wide variety of settings and scales. The observed linkage threshold is linear, with a slope value varying less than one order of magnitude. This suggests that linking relay ramps have self-similar geometries from centimetre- to kilometre-scale and that normal fault linkage is governed by similar fault interaction across a broad range of scales. The linkage criterion, which can be an effective tool to estimate relay ramp geometry at depth or at the earth surface, could therefore be used to improve investigations in determining fluid entrapment or in the evaluation of potential surface of seismic ruptures.     

The AVA (amplitude-versus-angle) signature of small-scale reflector topography

Routine amplitude‐versus‐offset or amplitude‐versus‐angle (AVA) analysis is founded on the predicted reflectivity of a planar boundary between isotropic homogeneous half‐spaces, yet many real boundaries of interest to hydrocarbon exploration may violate these assumptions. Here, we evaluate consequences of boundary roughness, i.e. small‐scale, sub‐resolution topography, on the reflecting boundary, to find whether sub‐resolution topography can deceive routine AVA analysis and produce misleading hydrocarbon indicators. We use noise‐free synthetic CMP and stacked‐section seismograms, generated with a Kirchhoff‐integral method, for offsets up to 4000 m. The reflecting boundary was at 2000 m depth below a single overburden layer, and comprised isolated mounds or channels (sinusoidal cross‐section, 5–40 m high and 100–750 m wide), and more complex roughness (simulated with seven 1.5–2 km long bathymetric profiles across modern‐day river‐beds, with dune and bar features up to approximately 20 m or 20 ms TWT vertical relief, and 10–100 m or more lateral extent). Flat‐boundary responses were taken as the ‘reference’ against which to compare waveforms and amplitudes through semblance analysis, AVA intercept A and slope B cross‐plots, and inferred Poisson's ratios. Physical properties of the media were based on shales and brine‐ or oil‐sands from an offshore UK oilfield. For the CMP centred on the topographic feature, isolated mounds and channels produced correlated excursions of A and B from the flat‐boundary response (by approximately 35–200%), simulating the familiar ‘background trend’ but sometimes oblique to it. Inferred Poisson's ratios were around 0.3, but for some channels often fell as low as 0.2, potentially interpretable as gas sand. For complex boundary topographies on a shale/brine‐sand model, AVA parameters were extracted for 29 CMPs, 100 m apart along each of seven profiles. On a cross‐plot, they spanned the flat‐boundary response on a linear trend B = (0.01 ± 0.02) – (1.72 ± 0.09)A, similar to reported real data and a realistic ‘mudrock trend’ but with outliers both above and below it that could be interpreted as ‘real’ weak anomalies. Poisson's ratios were 0.30 ± 0.01, between the expected values for brine‐ and oil‐sand. This suggests that boundary roughness may contribute to observed trends on cross‐plots and possibly small, but potentially laterally extensive, false AVA anomalies may also be induced.     

Spatial econometrics functions in R: Classes and methods

 Placing spatial econometrics and more generally spatial statistics in the context of an extensible data analysis environment such as R exposes similarities and differences between traditions of analysis. This can be fruitful, and is explored here in relation to prediction and other methods usually applied to fitted models in R. Objects in R may be assigned a class attribute, including fitted model objects. Such fitted model objects may be provided with methods allowing them to be displayed, compared, and used for prediction, and it is of interest to see whether fitted spatial models can be treated in the same way. Received: 26 August 2002 / Revised version: 15 January 2003     

Climatic Implications of the Kyoto Protocol: The Contribution of International Spillover

We explore the long-run impact of the Kyoto Protocol commitments to limit greenhouse gas emissions under various assumptions about the international spillover arising from actions led by the industrialised countries. International spillover comprises many complex processes including substitution due to price effects, diffusion of technology innovations, and policy and political spillovers. We represent these in terms of their aggregate impact on emission intensities over the next century. Limiting industrialised country emissions alone has limited environmental benefit if there is no international spillover; in our base case atmospheric concentrations by the end of the century rise to 730 ppm. However, this implies a large divergence of emission intensities, contrary to both empirical long term aggregate trends, and to identifiable influences towards convergence associated with economic globalisation. In contrast, if spillover leads to convergence of emission intensities by 2100, atmospheric concentrations are kept to below 560 ppm and are close to stabilising. Weargue that zero or negative international spillover, as assumed in manyanalyses, is not credible; we estimate the most likely range for the international spillover parameter in our model to be 0.5–1.0. For our base scenario this would imply a mean global average temperature change from pre-industrial levels by 2100 of 2.7–3.4 °C instead of 4.2 °C,and rising at only 0.15–0.29 °C/decade instead of 0.45 °C/decade.Long-run sea-level rise is greatly curtailed. The regional benefits to the industrialised countries are also magnified because of the spillover to developing county emissions. Although the aggregate degree of spillover is uncertain, the available evidence suggests that it will be important and environmentally beneficial in aggregate. Spillover will help to spread the global effectiveness of the Kyoto first period and subsequent commitments, and deserves much further scrutiny.