Changes in European temperature extremes can be predicted from changes in PDF central statistics

Although uncertainties are still large, many potentially dangerous effects have already been identified concerning the impacts of global warming on human societies. For example, the record-breaking 2003 summer heat wave in Europe has given a glimpse of possible future European climate conditions. Here we use an ensemble of regional climate simulations for the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries over Europe to show that frequency, length and intensity changes in warm and cold temperature extremes can be derived to a close approximation from the knowledge of changes in three central statistics, the mean, standard deviation and skewness of the Probability Distribution Function, for which current climate models are better suited. In particular, the effect of the skewness parameter appears to be crucial, especially in the case of cold extremes, since it mostly explains the relative warming of these events compared to the whole distribution. An application of this finding is that the future impacts of extreme heat waves and cold spells on non-climatological variables (e.g., mortality) can be estimated to a first-order approximation from observed time series of daily temperature transformed in order to account for simulated changes in these three statistics.     

New metrics for managing and sustaining the ocean's bounty

Policies are arising around the world, most recently in the United States, that mandate the implementation of marine spatial planning as a practical pathway towards ecosystem-based management. In the new United States ocean policy, and several other cases around the globe, ecosystem services are at the core of marine spatial planning, but there is little guidance on how ecosystem services should be measured, making it hard to implement this new approach. A new framework is shown here for practical, rigorous ecosystem service measurement that highlights contributions from both natural and social systems. The novel three-step framework addresses traditional shortcomings of an ecosystem services approach by giving managers and scientists the tools to assess and track: (1) the condition of the ecosystem (supply metrics), (2) the amount of ocean resources actually used or enjoyed by people (service metrics), and (3) people's preference for that level of service (value metrics). This framework will allow real world progress on marine spatial planning to happen quickly, and with a greater chance for success.     

Trace element concentrations in nesting flatback turtles (Natator depressus) from Curtis Island, Queensland, Australia

The blood and eggs of the flatback turtle (Natator depressus) sampled when nesting at Curtis Island, Queensland, Australia. In the blood, zinc was present at the highest concentration of 151.15 ± 1.45 μg/L followed by copper (7.74 ± 0.09 μg/L). Lead was found only in some individuals. The measured trace elements in the blood were maternally transferred into the eggs. Other metals and metalloids detected in eggs were chromium, manganese, arsenic and selenium. Eggs showed a more complex trace element profile than blood, suggesting that they provided more representative tissues for determining maternal levels of trace element accumulation in N. depressus. Intra-clutch variation was over 15% for most of the studied trace elements suggesting one egg is not in sufficient to determine trace element accumulation within a clutch. Copper was the only element which was positively correlated with breeding age. Furthermore, no detectable levels of tin compound derivates were measured in N. depressus.     

Source subtraction for the extended Very Small Array and 33-GHz source count estimates

We describe the source subtraction strategy and observations for the extended Very Small Array (VSA), a cosmic microwave background interferometer operating at 33 GHz. A total of 453 sources were monitored at 33 GHz using a dedicated source subtraction baseline. 131 sources brighter than 20 mJy were directly subtracted from the VSA visibility data. Some characteristics of the subtracted sources, such as spectra and variability, are discussed. The 33-GHz source counts are estimated from a sample selected at 15 GHz. The selection of VSA fields in order to avoid bright sources introduces a bias into the observed counts. This bias is corrected and the resulting source count is estimated to be complete in the flux-density range 20–114 mJy. The 33-GHz source counts are used to calculate a correction to the VSA power spectrum for sources below the subtraction limit.     

Possible usage of carbamide tar for creating artificial grounds with high sorption capacity

Filtering a lead solution through model samples prepared on the basis of alluvial sand mixed with carbamide tar at the ratio of 1: 1 and 1: 2 resulted in a sorption capacity of 30 and 160 mg/g of sample, respectively. Direct and reverse potentiometric titration of carbamide tar with a 0.1 N Pb (NO₃)₂ solution showed that these results are due to the fact that the curing of carbamide tar in acidic conditions is accompanied by irreversible lead sorption, which is not extracted by conventional buffer solutions. Thus, lead atoms become tightly integrated in the polymer structure of the tar with N-Pb-N bonding.     

Solvent extraction of copper acetylacetonate in studies of copper(II) speciation in seawater

A liquid-liquid partition, ligand exchange procedure involving the formation of copper(II) complexes with acetylacetone is presented for the determination of stability constants and concentrations of copper chelators in seawater. Acetylacetone competes with natural ligands for copper, and the equilibrium concentration of the copper acetylacetonate complex is used in speciation calculations. The concentration of the complex is calculated by partitioning a fraction of it into an organic phase and determining the total Cu concentration in that phase by back extracting with acid, and analyzing by flameless atomic absorption spectroscopy. The concentration of Cu acetylacetonate in seawater in equilibrium with the organic phase is calculated from the partition coefficient. The simple, thermodynamically well characterized procedure offers several advantages over previous techniques. Studies using organic free seawater and model ligands show good agreement between experimental and calculated conditional stability constants. Studies from seawater in Biscayne Bay, Florida, indicate two ligand types are present; type 1, K₁ = 1.2 × 10¹², C_L1 = 5.1 × 10⁻⁹ M; type 2, K₂ = 2.8 × 10¹⁰, C_L2 = 1.1 × 10⁻⁷ M. Speciation is dominated by ligand type 1. Depth profiles of [Cu(II)]_free/[Cu(II)]_total measured with the procedure at ambient copper concentrations show an increase from < 5 × 10⁻⁵ at 50–60 m to > 1 × 10⁻³ at the surface at two stations off the Florida coast.     

Correlation of the absorption coefficient with a reduction in mean mass for dissolved organic matter in southwest Florida river plumes

Results are presented from an investigation of the relationship between molecular mass distribution and optical properties for colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM); a complex assembly of organic macromolecules of marine and freshwater origin found throughout the surface ocean. Unique data are derived from the application of a new technique, a combination of a hydrophilic–lipophilic copolymer-based solid phase extraction (SPE) with electrospray ionization (ESI) continuous flowing ion trap mass spectrometry (cf-MS), for the direct determination of CDOM mass distribution. An evaluation of this copolymer-based extraction technique for the analysis of Suwannee River Natural Organic Matter (SRNOM) reference material revealed that the current method compares favorably with C₁₈ modified silica or XAD resin-based extraction methods reported in the literature when considering extraction efficiency or low extraction bias for CDOM. The mass distribution of CDOM in several freshwater to marine transition zones along coastal southwestern Florida has been determined with this technique. All rivers in the study region had a bimodal distribution of masses. A case study of the Caloosahatchee River outflow CDOM mass distribution data are presented as an example of the modification in mass distributions. The lower mass mode of the bimodal distribution was observed to have a relatively stable mean throughout the study region at 406±9 Da, while decreasing in concentration in a non-conservative manner with salinity. In contrast, the upper mass mode of the bimodal distribution was observed to have a variable mean, reaching 1408 Da in the least saline waters and decreasing by 174 Da through the transect toward higher salinity coastal waters. Coinciding with this reduction in mean mass for the upper distribution is a non-conservative reduction in concentration when compared with salinity. We define apparent organic carbon (AOC) as a function of the cf-MS determined total integrated area and use this value to determine concentration of the total extracted CDOM. Unique correlations between the CDOM fluorescence (350-nm excitation/450-nm emission) and the AOC for these coastal samples have been observed for each of three rivers in the study region. The steepest slope and highest correlation between optical and mass spectral properties are observed in rivers with strongly absorbing waters originating in the Florida Everglades and lowest in rivers draining clearer waters from widely variable and anthropogenic influenced regions. The trends in molecular mass distribution and corresponding optical properties support the theory that CDOM in coastal zones is environmentally processed material from terrestrial sources. Probable cause of the reduction in mean mass and suggestions for further investigation of sources and transformations of CDOM are discussed.     

Luminescence quenching of dissolved organic matter in seawater

To characterize more fully the nature of the fluorophores present in the dissolved organic matter found in seawater, steady state and time-resolved measurements of the luminescence quenching of a number of samples of marine dissolved organic matter with known quenchers, such as iodide, acrylamide and methyl viologen (MV) (1,1′-dimethyl-4,4′-bipyridinium), were compared. Quenching characteristics of these systems were analyzed using Stern-Volmer plots for both intensity and lifetime measurements. The bimolecular quenching constants, κ_q, for these quenchers were found to decrease in the order MV²⁺ (κ_q 10¹⁰M⁻¹s⁻¹) > I⁻ (κ_q 2 × 10⁹ M⁻¹ s⁻¹) >CH₂CHCONH₂ (κ_q 2 × 10⁸ M⁻¹ s⁻¹) for the samples measured. The results also show that different samples are quenched to differing extents by the quenchers studied, that ionic strength alters the quenching constants, and that both static and diffusional quenching mechanisms may operate.Such studies are appropriate to the quantification of the reactivity of the singlet states of the chromophores found within marine dissolved organic matter. Although excess energy of the singlet state may be readily transferred to another chemical species, the combination of competing physical deactivation paths and the low concentrations of efficient quenches in the oceans serves to lessen the direct chemical impact of this process.