Verifying Inventory Predictions of Animal Methane Emissions with Meteorological Measurements

The paper examines the strengths and weaknesses of a rangeof meteorological flux measurement techniques that mightbe used to verify predictions of greenhouse gas inventories.Recent research into emissions of methane (CH₄)produced by enteric fermentation in grazing cattle and sheepis used to illustrate various methodologies. Quantifying thisimportant source presents special difficulties because the animalsconstitute moving, heterogeneously distributed, intermittent, pointsources. There are two general approaches: one, from the bottom up,involves direct measurements of emissions from a known number ofanimals, and the other, from the top down, infers areal emissions ofCH₄ from its atmospheric signature. A mass-balance methodproved successful for bottom-up verification. It permits undisturbedgrazing, has a simple theoretical basis and is appropriate for fluxmeasurements on small plots and where there are scattered pointsources. The top-down methodologies include conventional flux-gradientapproaches and convective and nocturnal boundary-layer (CBL and NBL)budgeting schemes. Particular attention is given to CBL budget methods inboth differential and integral form. All top-down methodologies require ideal weather conditions for their application, and they suffer from the scattered nature of the source, varying wind directions and low instrument resolution. As for mass-balance, flux-gradient micrometeorological measurements were in good agreement with inventory predictions of CH₄ production by livestock, but the standard errors associated with both methods were too large to permit detection of changes of a few per cent in emission rate, which might be important for inventory, regulatory or research purposes. Fluxes calculated by CBL and NBL methods were of the same order of magnitude as inventory predictions, but more improvement is needed before their use can be endorsed. Opportunities for improving the precision of both bottom-up and top-down methodologies are discussed.     

Eigenvector selection with stepwise regression techniques to construct eigenvector spatial filters

Because eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) provides a relatively simple and successful method to account for spatial autocorrelation in regression, increasingly it has been adopted in various fields. Although ESF can be easily implemented with a stepwise procedure, such as traditional stepwise regression, its computational efficiency can be further improved. Two major computational components in ESF are extracting eigenvectors and identifying a subset of these eigenvectors. This paper focuses on how a subset of eigenvectors can be efficiently and effectively identified. A simulation experiment summarized in this paper shows that, with a well-prepared candidate eigenvector set, ESF can effectively account for spatial autocorrelation and achieve computational efficiency. This paper further proposes a nonlinear equation for constructing an ideal candidate eigenvector set based on the results of the simulation experiment.     

Going West: Nutrient Limitation of Primary Production in the Northern Gulf of Mexico and the Importance of the Atchafalaya River

To investigate controls on phytoplankton production along the Louisiana coastal shelf, we mapped salinity, nutrient concentrations (dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and phosphorus (P_i), silicate (Si)), nutrient ratios (DIN/P_i), alkaline phosphatase activity, chlorophyll and ¹⁴C primary productivity on fine spatial scales during cruises in March, May, and July 2004. Additionally, resource limitation assays were undertaken in a range of salinity and nutrient regimes reflecting gradients typical of this region. Of these, seven showed P_i limitation, five revealed nitrogen (N) limitation, three exhibited light (L) limitation, and one bioassay had no growth. We found the phytoplankton community to shift from being predominately N limited in the early spring (March) to P limited in late spring and summer (May and July). Light limitation of phytoplankton production was recorded in several bioassays in July in water samples collected after peak annual flows from both the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers. We also found that organic phosphorus, as glucose-6-phosphate, alleviated P limitation while phosphono-acetic acid had no effect. Whereas DIN/P_i and DIN/Si ratios in the initial water samples were good predictors of the outcome of phytoplankton production in response to inorganic nutrients, alkaline phosphatase activity was the best predictor when examining organic forms of phosphorus. We measured the rates of integrated primary production (0.33?C7.01 g C m^?2 d^?1), finding the highest rates within the Mississippi River delta and across Atchafalaya Bay at intermediate salinities. The lowest rates were measured along the outer shelf at the highest salinities and lowest nutrient concentrations (<0.1 ??M DIN and Pi). The results of this study indicate that P_i limitation of phytoplankton delays the assimilation of riverine DIN in the summer as the plume spreads across the shelf, pushing primary production over a larger region. Findings from water samples, taken adjacent the Atchafalaya River discharge, highlighted the importance of this riverine system to the overall production along the Louisiana coast.     

Physical and chemical characteristics of potential seal strata in regions considered for demonstrating geological saline CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> sequestration

Capture and geological sequestration of CO₂ from energy production is proposed to help mitigate climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases. Performance goals set by the US Department of Energy for CO₂ storage permanence include retention of at least 99% of injected CO₂ which requires detailed assessments of each potential storage site’s geologic system, including reservoir(s) and seal(s). The objective of this study was to review relevant basin-wide physical and chemical characteristics of geological seals considered for saline reservoir CO₂ sequestration in the United States. Results showed that the seal strata can exhibit substantial heterogeneity in the composition, structural, and fluid transport characteristics on a basin scale. Analysis of available field and wellbore core data reveal several common inter-basin features of the seals, including the occurrence of quartz, dolomite, illite, calcite, and glauconite minerals along with structural features containing fractures, faults, and salt structures. In certain localities within the examined basins, some seal strata also serve as source rock for oil and gas production and can be subject to salt intrusions. The regional features identified in this study can help guide modeling, laboratory, and field studies needed to assess local seal performances within the examined basins.     

Composition of Titan''s surface from Cassini VIMS

Titan's bulk density along with Solar System formation models indicates considerable water as well as silicates as its major constituents. This satellite's dense atmosphere of nitrogen with methane is unique. Deposits or even oceans of organic compounds have been suggested to exist on Titan's solid surface due to UV-induced photochemistry in the atmosphere. Thus, the composition of the surface is a major piece of evidence needed to determine Titan's history. However, studies of the surface are hindered by the thick, absorbing, hazy and in some places cloudy atmosphere. Ground-based telescope investigations of the integral disk of Titan attempted to observe the surface albedo in spectral windows between methane absorptions by calculating and removing the haze effects. Their results were reported to be consistent with water ice on the surface that is contaminated with a small amount of dark material, perhaps organic material like tholin. We analyze here the recent Cassini Mission's visual and infrared mapping spectrometer (VIMS) observations that resolve regions on Titan. VIMS is able to see surface features and shows that there are spectral and therefore likely compositional units. By several methods, spectral albedo estimates within methane absorption windows between 0.75 and 5 μm were obtained for different surface units using VIMS image cubes from the Cassini-Huygens Titan T_a encounter. Of the spots studied, there appears to be two compositional classes present that are associated with the lower albedo and the higher albedo materials, with some variety among the brighter regions. These were compared with spectra of several different candidate materials. Our results show that the spectrum of water ice contaminated with a darker material matches the reflectance of the lower albedo Titan regions if the spectral slope from 2.71 to 2.79 μm in the poorly understood 2.8-μm methane window is ignored. The spectra for brighter regions are not matched by the spectrum of water ice or unoxidized tholin, in pure form or in mixtures with sufficient ice or tholin present to allow the water ice or tholin spectral features to be discerned. We find that the 2.8-μm methane absorption window is complex and seems to consist of two weak subwindows at 2.7 and 2.8 μm that have unknown opacities. A ratio image at these two wavelengths reveals an anomalous region on Titan that has a reflectance unlike any material so far identified, but it is unclear how much the reflectances in these two subwindows pertain to the surface.     

An addendum to note on central dynamical configurations

Two theorems for central configurations are shown to be true under more general conditions.     

EVALUATING THE TRANSFORMATION FROM A MONOCENTRIC TO A POLYCENTRIC CITY

A population density model is presented for urban areas containing multiple centers. Utilities of this model include evaluating time series for a transformation from monocentricity to polycentricity and testing the assumption of monocentricity at any point in time. Following a discussion of the method of calibrating this model, a case study of Toronto is presented. The major finding from 1971 and 1976 Toronto data is that no transformation is yet detectable. Interpretation of the model is exemplified in this empirical exercise.     

Titan’s cloud seasonal activity from winter to spring with Cassini/VIMS

Since Saturn orbital insertion in July 2004, the Cassini orbiter has been observing Titan throughout most of the northern winter season (October 2002–August 2009) and the beginning of spring, allowing a detailed monitoring of Titan’s cloud coverage at high spatial resolution with close flybys on a monthly basis. This study reports on the analysis of all the near-infrared images of Titan’s clouds acquired by the Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) during 67 targeted flybys of Titan between July 2004 and April 2010.The VIMS observations show numerous sporadic clouds at southern high and mid-latitudes, rare clouds in the equatorial region, and reveal a long-lived cloud cap above the north pole, ubiquitous poleward of 60°N. These observations allow us to follow the evolution of the cloud coverage during almost a 6-year period including the equinox, and greatly help to further constrain global circulation models (GCMs). After 4 years of regular outbursts observed by Cassini between 2004 and 2008, southern polar cloud activity started declining, and completely ceased 1 year before spring equinox. The extensive cloud system over the north pole, stable between 2004 and 2008, progressively fractionated and vanished as Titan entered into northern spring. At southern mid-latitudes, clouds were continuously observed throughout the VIMS observing period, even after equinox, in a latitude band between 30°S and 60°S. During the whole period of observation, only a dozen clouds were observed closer to the equator, though they were slightly more frequent as equinox approached.We also investigated the distribution of clouds with longitude. We found that southern polar clouds, before disappearing in mid-2008, were systematically concentrated in the leading hemisphere of Titan, in particular above and to the east of Ontario Lacus, the largest reservoir of hydrocarbons in the area. Clouds are also non-homogeneously distributed with longitude at southern mid-latitudes. The n = 2-mode wave pattern of the distribution, observed since 2003 by Earth-based telescopes and confirmed by our Cassini observations, may be attributed to Saturn’s tides.Although the latitudinal distribution of clouds is now relatively well reproduced and understood by the GCMs, the non-homogeneous longitudinal distributions and the evolution of the cloud coverage with seasons still need investigation. If the observation of a few single clouds at the tropics and at northern mid-latitudes late in winter and at the start of spring cannot be further interpreted for the moment, the obvious shutdown of the cloud activity at Titan’s poles provides clear signs of the onset of the general circulation turnover that is expected to accompany the beginning of Titan’s northern spring. According to our GCM, the persistence of clouds at certain latitudes rather suggests a ‘sudden’ shift in near future of the meteorology into the more illuminated hemisphere. Finally, the observed seasonal change in cloud activity occurred with a significant time lag that is not predicted by our model. This may be due to an overall methane humidity at Titan’s surface higher than previously expected.     

Radiative transfer analyses of Titan’s tropical atmosphere

Titan’s optical and near-IR spectra result primarily from the scattering of sunlight by haze and its absorption by methane. With a column abundance of 92 km amagat (11 times that of Earth), Titan’s atmosphere is optically thick and only ～10% of the incident solar radiation reaches the surface, compared to 57% on Earth. Such a formidable atmosphere obstructs investigations of the moon’s lower troposphere and surface, which are highly sensitive to the radiative transfer treatment of methane absorption and haze scattering. The absorption and scattering characteristics of Titan’s atmosphere have been constrained by the Huygens Probe Descent Imager/Spectral Radiometer (DISR) experiment for conditions at the probe landing site (Tomasko, M.G., Bézard, B., Doose, L., Engel, S., Karkoschka, E. [2008a]. Planet. Space Sci. 56, 624–247; Tomasko, M.G. et al. [2008b]. Planet. Space Sci. 56, 669–707). Cassini’s Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) data indicate that the rest of the atmosphere (except for the polar regions) can be understood with small perturbations in the high haze structure determined at the landing site (Penteado, P.F., Griffith, C.A., Tomasko, M.G., Engel, S., See, C., Doose, L., Baines, K.H., Brown, R.H., Buratti, B.J., Clark, R., Nicholson, P., Sotin, C. [2010]. Icarus 206, 352–365). However the in situ measurements were analyzed with a doubling and adding radiative transfer calculation that differs considerably from the discrete ordinates codes used to interpret remote data from Cassini and ground-based measurements. In addition, the calibration of the VIMS data with respect to the DISR data has not yet been tested. Here, VIMS data of the probe landing site are analyzed with the DISR radiative transfer method and the faster discrete ordinates radiative transfer calculation; both models are consistent (to within 0.3%) and reproduce the scattering and absorption characteristics derived from in situ measurements. Constraints on the atmospheric opacity at wavelengths outside those measured by DISR, that is from 1.6 to 5.0 μm, are derived using clouds as diffuse reflectors in order to derive Titan’s surface albedo to within a few percent error and cloud altitudes to within 5 km error. VIMS spectra of Titan at 2.6–3.2 μm indicate not only spectral features due to CH₄ and CH₃D (Rannou, P., Cours, T., Le Mouélic, S., Rodriguez, S., Sotin, C., Drossart, P., Brown, R. [2010]. Icarus 208, 850–867), but also a fairly uniform absorption of unknown source, equivalent to the effects of a darkening of the haze to a single scattering albedo of 0.63 ± 0.05. Titan’s 4.8 μm spectrum point to a haze optical depth of 0.2 at that wavelength. Cloud spectra at 2 μm indicate that the far wings of the Voigt profile extend 460 cm^?1 from methane line centers. This paper releases the doubling and adding radiative transfer code developed by the DISR team, so that future studies of Titan’s atmosphere and surface are consistent with the findings by the Huygens Probe. We derive the surface albedo at eight spectral regions of the 8 × 12 km² area surrounding the Huygens landing site. Within the 0.4–1.6 μm spectral region our surface albedos match DISR measurements, indicating that DISR and VIMS measurements are consistently calibrated. These values together with albedos at longer 1.9–5.0 μm wavelengths, not sampled by DISR, resemble a dark version of the spectrum of Ganymede’s icy leading hemisphere. The eight surface albedos of the landing site are consistent with, but not deterministic of, exposed water ice with dark impurities.