Evaluating Lost Person Behavior Models

US wilderness search and rescue consumes thousands of person‐hours and millions of dollars annually. Timeliness is critical: the probability of success decreases substantially after 24 hours. Although over 90% of searches are quickly resolved by standard “reflex” tasks, the remainder require and reward intensive planning. Planning begins with a probability map showing where the lost person is likely to be found. The MapScore project described here provides a way to evaluate probability maps using actual historical searches. In this work we generated probability maps the Euclidean distance tables in (Koester 2008 ), and using Doke's ( 2012 ) watershed model. Watershed boundaries follow high terrain and may better reflect actual barriers to travel. We also created a third model using the joint distribution using Euclidean and watershed features. On a metric where random maps score 0 and perfect maps score 1, the Euclidean distance model scored 0.78 (95%CI: 0.74–0.82, on 376 cases). The simple watershed model by itself was clearly inferior at 0.61, but the Combined model was slightly better at 0.81 (95%CI: 0.77–0.84).     

Heat and mass transfer effects during displacement of deepwater methane hydrate to the surface of Lake Baikal

The present paper focuses on heat and mass exchange processes in methane hydrate fragments during in situ displacement from the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) to the water surface of Lake Baikal. After being extracted from the methane hydrate deposit at the lakebed, hydrate fragments were placed into a container with transparent walls and a bottom grid. There were no changes in the hydrate fragments during ascent within the GHSZ. The water temperature in the container remained the same as that of the ambient water (~3.5 °С). However, as soon as the container crossed the upper border of the GHSZ, first signs of hydrate decomposition and transformation into free methane gas were observed. The gas filled the container and displaced water from it. At 300 m depth, the upper and lower thermometers in the container simultaneously recorded noticeable decreases of temperature. The temperature in the upper part of the container decreased to –0.25 °С at about 200 m depth, after which the temperature remained constant until the water surface was reached. The temperature at the bottom of the container reached –0.25 °С at about 100 m depth, after which it did not vary during further ascent. These observed effects could be explained by the formation of a gas phase in the container and an ice layer on the hydrate surface caused by heat consumption during hydrate decomposition (self-preservation effect). However, steady-state simulations suggest that the forming ice layer is too thin to sustain the hydrate internal pressure required to protect the hydrate from decomposition. Thus, the mechanism of self-preservation remains unclear.     

Tectonic Subsidence of California Estuaries Increases Forecasts of Relative Sea-Level Rise

Even along the generally uplifting coast of the Pacific US, local geologic structures can cause subsidence. In this study, we quantify Holocene-averaged subsidence rates in four estuaries (Carpinteria Slough, Goleta Slough, Campus Lagoon, and Morro Bay) along the southern and central California coast by comparing radiocarbon-dated estuarine material to a regional sea-level curve. Holocene-averaged rates of vertical motion range from subsidence of 1.4?±?2.4, 1.2±0.4, and 0.4?±?0.3 mm/year in Morro Bay, Carpinteria Slough, and Goleta Slough, respectively, to possible uplift in Campus Lagoon (?0.1?±?0.9 mm/year). The calculated rates of subsidence are of the same magnitude as rates of relative sea-level rise experienced over the late Holocene and effectively double the ongoing rates of relative sea-level rise experienced over the last five decades on other parts of the coast. The difference in rates of vertical motion among these four estuaries is attributed to their geological settings. Estuaries developed in subsiding geological structures such as synclines and fault-bounded basins are subsiding at much higher rates than those developed within flooded river valleys incised into marine terraces. Restoration projects accounting for future sea-level rise must consider the geologic setting of the estuaries and, if applicable, include subsidence in future sea-level rise scenarios, even along the tectonically uplifting US Pacific Coast.     

The Legacy of Jedidiah Morse in Early American Geography Education: Forgotten and/or Forgettable Geographer?

Despite numerous and significant writings by historians of geography and biographers from other disciplines, and his authorship of the first geography textbooks written in and for the new American republic, most geographers are largely unaware of the contributions of Jedidiah Morse in academic geography. Writings about Morse suggest that he had alienated himself from many of his contemporaries early in his career through his authoritarian brand of Calvinistic republicanism, a perceived contradiction of that style with his entrepreneurial ambitions, his role in the controversial Bavarian Illuminati, and a dispute with a noted New England historian. But subsequent, broader intellectual movements sealed Morse's fate as a forgotten geographer (to most), including the end of the Second Great Awakening, Transcendentalism, Darwinism, and the “new,” process‐based geographical thinking inspired by Carl Ritter, Alexander von Humboldt, and Arnold Guyot. Regardless of the reasons for Morse's lost legacy, his contributions to geographical education are important and should be remembered.     

Recent Trends in Geography Education in Louisiana

Geography at elementary and middle schools in Louisiana, USA., remains a social studies strand along with civics, economics, and history, with no state-required geography course at any level. But because schools may require more geography than the state standard, this research examines the extent to which K–12 students are exposed to geography in Louisiana, using an electronic survey and an interview with state department of education officials. Results suggest that geography remains underemphasized, but the 2011 implementation of new social studies standards, the Advanced Placement Human Geography course, and other initiatives offer promise for more geographically literate Louisiana citizens.