Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.     

Early Cretaceous U–Pb zircon ages for the Copiapó plutonic complex and implications for the IOCG mineralization at Candelaria, Atacama Region, Chile

Four of the major plutons in the vicinity of the Candelaria mine (470 Mt at 0.95% Cu, 0.22 g/t Au, 3.1 g/t Ag) and a dike–sill system exposed in the Candelaria open pit have been dated with the U–Pb zircon method. The new geochronological data indicate that dacite magmatism around 123 Ma preceded the crystallization of hornblende diorite (Khd) at 118 ± 1 Ma, quartz–monzonite porphyry (Kqm) at 116.3 ± 0.4 Ma, monzodiorite (Kmd) at 115.5 ± 0.4 Ma, and tonalite (Kt) at 110.7 ± 0.4 Ma. The new ages of the plutons are consistent with field relationships regarding the relative timing of emplacement. Plutonism temporally overlaps with the iron oxide Cu–Au mineralization (Re–Os molybdenite ages at ∼115 Ma) and silicate alteration (ages mainly from 114 to 116 and 110 to 112 Ma) in the Candelaria–Punta del Cobre district. The dated dacite porphyry and hornblende diorite intrusions preceded the ore formation. A genetic link of the metallic mineralization with the quartz–monzonite porphyry and/or the monzodiorite is likely. Both of these metaluminous, shoshonitic (high-K) intrusions could have provided energy and contributed fluids, metals, and sulfur to the hydrothermal system that caused the iron oxide Cu–Au mineralization. The age of the tonalite at 110.7 Ma falls in the same range as the late alteration at 110 to 112 Ma. Tonalite emplacement may have sustained existing or driven newly developed hydrothermal cells that caused this late alteration or modified ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and K/Ar systematic in some areas.     

Combined Digital Photogrammetry and Time-of-Flight Laser Scanning for Monitoring Cliff Evolution

Although cliffs form approximately 75% of the world's coastline, the understanding of the processes through which they evolve remains limited because of a lack of quantitative data on the morphological changes they undergo. In this paper the combination of terrestrial time-of-flight laser scanning with high-resolution digital photogrammetry is examined to generate high-quality data-sets pertaining to the geomorphic processes governing cliff development. The study was undertaken on a section of hard rock cliffs in North Yorkshire, UK, which has been monitored over a 12-month period. High-density, laser-scanned point clouds have been used to produce an accurate representation of these complex surfaces, free from the optical variations that degrade photographic data. These data-sets have been combined with high-resolution photographic monitoring, resampled with the fixed accuracies of the terrestrial laser survey, to generate a new approach to recording the volumetric changes in complex coastal cliffs. This has led to significant improvements in the understanding of the activity patterns of coastal cliffs.     

δC of low-molecular-weight organic acids generated by the hydrous pyrolysis of oil-prone source rocks

Low-molecular-weight (LMW) aqueous organic acids were generated from six oil-prone source rocks under hydrous-pyrolysis conditions. Differences in total organic carbon-normalized acid generation are a function of the initial thermal maturity of the source rock and the oxygen content of the kerogen (OI). Carbon-isotope analyses were used to identify potential generation mechanisms and other chemical reactions that might influence the occurrence of LMW organic acids. The generated LMW acids display increasing ¹³C content as a function of decreasing molecular weight and increasing thermal maturity. The magnitudes of observed isotope fractionations are source-rock dependent. These data are consistent with δ¹³C values of organic acids presented in a field study of the San Joaquin Basin and likely reflect the contributions from alkyl-carbons and carboxyl-carbons with distinct δ¹³C values. The data do not support any particular organic acid generation mechanism. The isotopic trends observed as a function of molecular weight, thermal maturity, and rock type are not supported by either generation mechanisms or destructive decarboxylation. It is therefore proposed that organic acids experience isotopic fractionation during generation consistent with a primary kinetic isotope effect and subsequently undergo an exchange reaction between the carboxyl carbon and dissolved inorganic carbon that significantly influences the carbon isotope composition observed for the entire molecule. Although generation and decarboxylation may influence the δ¹³C values of organic acids, in the hydrous pyrolysis system described, the nondestructive, pH-dependent exchange of carboxyl carbon with inorganic carbon appears to be the most important reaction mechanism controlling the δ¹³C values of the organic acids.     

Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO₂. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO₂ levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.     

Inorganic speciation of dissolved elements in seawater: the influence of pH on concentration ratios

Assessments of inorganic elemental speciation in seawater span the past four decades. Experimentation, compilation and critical review of equilibrium data over the past forty years have, in particular, considerably improved our understanding of cation hydrolysis and the complexation of cations by carbonate ions in solution. Through experimental investigations and critical evaluation it is now known that more than forty elements have seawater speciation schemes that are strongly influenced by pH. In the present work, the speciation of the elements in seawater is summarized in a manner that highlights the significance of pH variations. For elements that have pH-dependent species concentration ratios, this work summarizes equilibrium data (S = 35, t = 25°C) that can be used to assess regions of dominance and relative species concentrations. Concentration ratios of complex species are expressed in the form log[A]/[B] = pH - C where brackets denote species concentrations in solution, A and B are species important at higher (A) and lower (B) solution pH, and C is a constant dependent on salinity, temperature and pressure. In the case of equilibria involving complex oxy-anions (MO _x (OH) _y ) or hydroxy complexes (M(OH) _n ), C is written as pK _n = -log K _n or pK _n * = -log K _n * respectively, where K _n and K _n * are equilibrium constants. For equilibria involving carbonate complexation, the constant C is written as pQ = -log(K ₂ ^l K _n [HCO₃ ^-]) where K ₂ ^l is the HCO₃ ^- dissociation constant, K _n is a cation complexation constant and [HCO₃ ^-] is approximated as 1.9 × 10^-3 molar. Equilibrium data expressed in this manner clearly show dominant species transitions, ranges of dominance, and relative concentrations at any pH.     

Multiple stressors in an estuarine system: Effects of nutrients, trace elements, and trophic complexity on benthic photosynthesis and respiration

The effects of nutrients, trace elements, and trophic complexity on benthic photosynthesis and respriation were studied in the Paxtuxent River estuary near St. Leonard, Maryland. Experiments were conducted over three years (1995–1997) in mesocosms containing riverine sediment and water. The experimental design was 2×2×3 factorial with two levels of nutrients (ambient and + nutrients), two of trace elements (ambient and + trace elements) and three of trophic complexity (plankton, plankton + fish, and plankton + fish + benthos). Trace elements included arsenic (As), copper (Cu), and cadmium (Cd). The experiment was conducted three times in 1995 and 1997 and four times in 1996. In 1995 and 1996, sediments were muddy, while in the final year sediments were sandy. In mesocoms with sandy sediments, nutrient additions increased benthic photosynthesis overall, while trace element additions increased benthic photosynthesis in two of three experimental runs. Benthic photosynthesis in these mesocosms appeared to be related to nitrogen loading. Benthic respiration increased in nutrient and trace element amended mesocosms with sandy sediments, apparently in response to higher benthic photosynthesis. Increasing trophic complexity, particularly the presence of benthic organisms, also increased benthic respiration in mesocosms with sandy sediments. There were no effects of nutrient or trace element additions on benthic photosynthesis and respiration when the sediments were muddy. The lack of consistent responses to nutrient additions was surprising given that benthic respiration rates (and presumably nutrient regeneration) were similar in all three years, regardless of sediment type. Muddy, sediments did not mask, the effects of nutrient addition by supplying more nutrients to benthic microalgae than sandy sediments. In 1996, the presence of filter feeding bivalves increased the relative heterotrophy of sediments, measured as production: respiration. Consistent with increased heterotrophy, effluxes of ammonium and soluble reactive phosphorus from sediments were greater in mesocosms containing benthic organisms. Anthropogenically-induced changes in estuaries, such as loading of nutrients and trace elements or reduced trophic complexity, can have important effects on benthic processes and potentially pelagic processes through feedback mechanisms.