Low-frequency sea-level fluctuations along the coasts of Namibia and South Africa

Summary. Sea-level records at nine ports along the coasts of Namibia and South Africa are used to establish the existence of coastal trapped disturbances in sea-level as a response to the passage of synoptic weather systems. Using spectral analysis the characteristics and spatial variability of the sea-level fluctuations are identified. The results of cross-correlation analyses performed on sea-level data at adjacent ports for two periods during 1982 are discussed in detail to examine the propagation of coastal trapped waves round the coast.     

Global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection,streamflow forecasting and interannual variability

Abstract

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been linked to climate anomalies throughout the world. This paper presents an overview of global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection and identifies regions where the relationship may be exploited to forecast streamflow several months ahead. The teleconnection is investigated by fitting a first harmonic to 24-month El Niño streamflow composites from 581 catchments worldwide and the potential for forecasting is investigated by calculating the lag correlation between streamflow and two indicators of ENSO. The analyses indicate clear ENSO-streamflow teleconnections in many catchments, some of which are consistent across large geographical regions. Strong and regionally consistent ENSO-streamflow teleconnections are identified in Australia and New Zealand, South and Central America, and weaker signals are identified in some parts of Africa and North America. The results suggest that the ENSO-streamflow relationship and the serial correlation in streamflow can be used to successfully forecast streamflow. The streamflow forecasts can be used to help manage water resources, particularly in systems with high interannual variability in Australia, southern and drier parts of Africa and some areas of North America.     

Schmidt‐hammer exposure‐age dating (SHD) of snow‐avalanche impact ramparts in southern Norway: approaches,results and implications for landform age,dynamics and development

Schmidt‐hammer exposure‐age dating (SHD) was applied to the problem of dating the diachronous surfaces of five distal river‐bank boulder ramparts deposited by snow avalanches plunging into the Jostedøla and Sprongdøla rivers in the Jostedalsbreen region of southern Norway. Approaches to local high‐precision linear age calibration, which controlled in different ways for boulder roundness, were developed. The mean age (SHD_mean) and the maximum age (SHD_max) of surface boulders were estimated for whole ramparts, crests and distal fringes. Interpretation was further assisted by reference to R‐value distributions. SHD_mean ages (with 95% confidence intervals) ranged from 520 ± 270 years to 5375 ± 965 years, whereas SHD_max ages (expected to be exceeded by <5% of surface boulders) ranged from 675 to 9065 years. SHD ages from the Jostedøla ramparts tended to be older than those associated with the Sprongdøla, rampart crests were younger than the respective distal fringes, and use of relatively rounded boulders yielded more consistent SHD ages than angular boulders. The SHD_mean ages indicate differences in recent levels of snow‐avalanche activity between ramparts and provide insights into rampart dynamics as boulders are deposited on rampart crests and, in smaller numbers, on the distal fringes. SHD_max ages provide minimum age estimates of rampart age (i.e. the time elapsed since the ramparts began to form) and suggest that at least some of the ramparts have been developing since the early Holocene. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

In situ measurements of contributions to the global electrical circuit by a thunderstorm in southeastern Brazil

The global electrical circuit, which maintains a potential of about 280 kV between the earth and the ionosphere, is thought to be driven mainly by thunderstorms and lightning. However, very few in situ measurements of electrical current above thunderstorms have been successfully obtained. In this paper, we present dc to very low frequency electric fields and atmospheric conductivity measured in the stratosphere (30–35 km altitude) above an active thunderstorm in southeastern Brazil. From these measurements, we estimate the mean quasi-static conduction current during the storm period to be 2.5 ± 1.25 A. Additionally, we examine the transient conduction currents following a large positive cloud-to-ground (+ CG) lightning flash and typical − CG flashes. We find that the majority of the total current is attributed to the quasi-static thundercloud charge, rather than lightning, which supports the classical Wilson model for the global electrical circuit.     

A Study On Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Characteristics At Anand, India Using Lsp Experimental Data Sets

An attempt is made to study the planetary boundary layer (PBL) characteristics during the winter period at Anand (22.4°N, 72.6°E), a semi-arid region, which is located in the western part of India. A one-dimensional turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) closure model is used for the study. The structure of the PBL,which consists of profiles of zonal and meridional components of wind,potential temperature and specific humidity, is simulated. A one-dimensional soil heat and moisture transport parameterization scheme is incorporated for the accurate representation of the energy exchange processes at the soil-atmosphere interface. The diurnal variation of fluxes of sensible heat, latent heat, shortwave radiation, net radiation and soil flux, soil temperature at different depths, Richardson number and TKE at the height of the constant flux layer is studied. The model predictions are compared with the available observations obtained from a special Land Surface Processes (LSP) experiment.     

Does temperature contain a stochastic trend: linking statistical results to physical mechanisms

By construction, the time series for radiative forcing that are used to run the 20c3m experiments, which are implemented by climate models, impart non-stationary movements (either stochastic or deterministic) to the simulated time series for global surface temperature. Here, we determine whether stochastic or deterministic trends are present in the simulated time series for global surface temperature by examining the time series for radiative forcing. Statistical tests indicate that the forcings contain a stochastic trend against the alternative hypothesis that the series are trend stationary with a one-time structural change. This result is consistent with the economic processes that impart a stochastic trend to anthropogenic emissions and the physical processes that integrate emissions in the atmosphere. Furthermore, the stochastic trend in the aggregate measure of radiative forcing also is present in the simulated time series for global surface temperature, which is consistent with the relation between these two variables that is represented by a zero dimensional energy balance model. Finally, we propose that internal weather variability imposed on the stochastic trend in radiative forcings is responsible for statistical results, which gives the impression that global surface temperature is trend stationary with a one-time structural change. We conclude that using the ideas of stochastic trends, cointegration, and error correction can generate reliable conclusions regarding the causes of changes in global surface temperature during the instrumental temperature record.     

Mathematical modeling of marine environment pollution processes by petroleum hydrocarbons and their degradation in Caspian Sea ecosystem

The available observational data on the pollution of tributaries and areas of the Caspian Sea by petroleum hydrocarbons and products are examined. The possible petroleum input from sources in the sea is assessed using up-to-date data of satellite observations of sea surface pollution by oil films. The hydroecological CNPSi-model is applied to studying water pollution processes by petroleum hydrocarbons in ten areas chosen in the Caspian Sea and the subsequent biodegradation of those pollutants. The model calculations of the within-year dynamics of petroleum hydrocarbon concentrations use mean annual observational data on within-year variations in water mediium characteristics (water temperature, light intensity, and transparency), as well as the morphometric parameters of sea areas (the area, mean depth, and water volumes). The characteristics of water exchange between the areas were evaluated using a hydrodynamic model. The model calculations were used to characterize the within-year variations in petroleum hydrocarbon concentrations, the biomasses of petroleum-oxidizing bacteria, the characteristics of their oxidation activity and bioproduction, and the internal fluxes of petroleum hydrocarbons (their input from various sources, horizontal and vertical transport, and biotransformation) in different sea areas. Calculation results were used to compile annual balances for the processes of input and consumption of petroleum hydrocarbons in the chosen and aggregated sea areas.     

Two types of ELF hiss observed at Varanasi, India

The morphology of ELF hiss events observed at low-latitude ground station Varanasi (L = 1.07, geomagnetic latitude 14°55′N) are reported, which consist of two types: (1) events which propagated in ducted mode along the geomagnetic field line corresponding to observing station Varanasi and (2) events which propagated in ducted mode along higher L-values (L = 4–6), after reaching the lower edge of ionosphere excite the Earth-ionosphere wave guide and propagate towards equator to be received at Varanasi. To understand the generation mechanism of ELF hiss, incoherent Cerenkov radiated power from the low latitude and middle latitude plasmasphere are evaluated. Considering this estimated power as an input for wave amplification through wave-particle interaction, the growth rate and amplification factor is evaluated which is too small to explain the observed wave intensity. It is suggested that some non-linear mechanism is responsible for the generation of ELF hiss.