Late Cenozoic magnetostratigraphy (11 – 0 Ma) of the Dongshanding and Wangjiashan sections in the Longzhong Basin,western China

A paleomagnetic study of the 510-m-thick Wangjiashan section of Late Miocene and Pliocene terrestrial sediments reveals a fairly complete reversal record with ages from 11 to 1.8 Ma. The magnetostratigraphy of the Dongshanding section, located nearby, reveals a partially overlapping reversal record with ages from 2.2 to 0 Ma, and facilitates correlation of the Wangjiashan section with the global polarity time scale. A new stratigraphic division of the Wangjiashan section replaces the name Linxia formation by five new formation names, based on lithologic variation and mammalian fossil finds. The new formations and their magnetostratigraphically determined ages are: Dongshan Formation (c. 1.75–2.6 Ma), Jishi Fm. (c. 2.6–3.6 Ma), Hewangjia Fm. (4.5–6.0 Ma), Liushu Fm. (6.0–7.6 Ma), and Dongxiang Fm. (7.6–c. 12 Ma). The Neogene stratigraphy and fossil mammals suggest that the nearby part of the Tibetan Plateau experienced a persistent denudation during the Late Miocene and Early Pliocene, but that it was uplifted more rapidly at about 3.6 Ma.     

Improving technology transfer through national systems of innovation: climate relevant innovation-system builders (CRIBs)

The Technology Executive Committee (TEC) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) recently convened a workshop seeking to understand how strengthening national systems of innovation (NSIs) might help to foster the transfer of climate technologies to developing countries. This article reviews insights from the literatures on Innovation Studies and Socio-Technical Transitions to demonstrate why this focus on fostering innovation systems has potential to be more transformative as an international policy mechanism for climate technology transfer than anything the UNFCCC has considered to date. Based on insights from empirical research, the article also articulates how the existing architecture of the UNFCCC Technology Mechanism could be usefully extended by supporting the establishment of CRIBs (climate relevant innovation-system builders) in developing countries – key institutions focused on nurturing the climate-relevant innovation systems and building technological capabilities that form the bedrock of transformative, climate-compatible technological change and development.

Policy relevance

This article makes a direct contribution to current work by the TEC of the UNFCCC on enhancing enabling environments for and addressing barriers to technology development and transfer (specifically, it will contribute to Activity 4.3 of the TEC's 2014–15 rolling workplan ‘Further work on enablers and barriers, taking into account the outcomes of the workshop on NSIs’). The article articulates both the conceptual basis that justifies a focus on NSIs in relation to climate technology transfer and makes concrete recommendations as to how this can be implemented under the Convention as a Party-driven extension to the existing architecture of the Technology Mechanism.     

Inputs of iron,manganese and aluminium to surface waters of the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the European continental shelf

Dissolved Fe, Mn and Al concentrations (dFe, dMn and dAl hereafter) in surface waters and the water column of the Northeast Atlantic and the European continental shelf are reported. Following an episode of enhanced Saharan dust inputs over the Northeast Atlantic Ocean prior and during the cruise in March 1998, surface concentrations were enhanced up to 4 nmol L^− 1 dFe, 3 nmol L^− 1 dMn and 40 nmol L^− 1 dAl and returned to 0.6 nmol L^− 1 dFe, 0.5 nmol L^− 1 dMn and 10 nmol L^− 1 dAl towards the end of the cruise three weeks later. A simple steady state model (MADCOW, [Measures, C.I., Brown, E.T., 1996. Estimating dust input to the Atlantic Ocean using surface water aluminium concentrations. In: Guerzoni. S. and Chester. R. (Eds.), The impact of desert dust across the Mediterranean, Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, pp. 301–311.]) was used which relies on surface ocean dAl as a proxy for atmospheric deposition of mineral dust. We estimated dust input at 1.8 g m^− 2 yr^− 1 (range 1.0–2.9 g m^− 2 yr^− 1) and fluxes of dFe, dMn and dAl were inferred. Mixed layer steady state residence times for dissolved metals were estimated at 1.3 yr for dFe (range 0.3–2.9 yr) and 1.9 yr for dMn (range 1.0–3.8 yr). The dFe residence time may have been overestimated and it is shown that 0.2–0.4 yr is probably more realistic. Using vertical dFe versus Apparent Oxygen Utilization (AOU) relationships as well as a biogeochemical two end member mixing model, regenerative Fe:C ratios were estimated respectively to be 20 ± 6 and 22 ± 5 μmol Fe:mol C. Combining the atmospheric flux of dFe to the upper water column with the latter Fe:C ratio, a ‘new iron’ supported primary productivity of only 15% (range 7%–56%) was deduced. This would imply that 85% (range 44–93%) of primary productivity could be supported by regenerated dFe. The open ocean surface data suggest that the continental shelf is probably not a major source of dissolved metals to the surface of the adjacent open ocean. Continental shelf concentrations of dMn, dFe, and to a lesser extent dAl, were well correlated with salinity and express mixing of a fresher continental end member with Atlantic Ocean water flowing onto the shelf. This means probably that diffusive benthic fluxes did not play a major role at the time of the cruise.     

Have applications of continuous rainfall–runoff simulation realized the vision for process‐based flood frequency analysis?

Keith Beven was amongst the first to propose and demonstrate a combination of conceptual rainfall–runoff modelling and stochastically generated rainfall data in what is known as the ‘continuous simulation’ approach for flood frequency analysis. The motivations included the potential to establish better links with physical processes and to avoid restrictive assumptions inherent in existing methods applied in design flood studies. Subsequently, attempts have been made to establish continuous simulation as a routine method for flood frequency analysis, particularly in the UK. The approach has not been adopted universally, but numerous studies have benefitted from applications of continuous simulation methods. This paper asks whether industry has yet realized the vision of the pioneering research by Beven and others. It reviews the generic methodology and illustrates applications of the original vision for a more physically realistic approach to flood frequency analysis through a set of practical case studies, highlighting why continuous simulation was useful and appropriate in each case. The case studies illustrate how continuous simulation has helped to offer users of flood frequency analysis more confidence about model results by avoiding (or exposing) bad assumptions relating to catchment heterogeneity, inappropriateness of assumptions made in (UK) industry‐standard design event flood estimation methods, and the representation of engineered or natural dynamic controls on flood flows. By implementing the vision for physically realistic analysis of flood frequency through continuous simulation, each of these examples illustrates how more relevant and improved information was provided for flood risk decision‐making than would have been possible using standard methods. They further demonstrate that integrating engineered infrastructure into flood frequency analysis and assessment of environmental change are also significant motivations for adopting the continuous simulation approach in practice. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Linearly Organized Turbulence Structures Observed Over a Suburban Area by Dual-Doppler Lidar

Dual-Doppler lidar observations are used to investigate the structure and evolution of surface-layer flow over a suburban area. The observations were made during the Joint Urban 2003 (JU2003) field experiment in Oklahoma City, U.S.A. in the summer of 2003. This study focuses specifically on a 10-h sequence of scan data beginning shortly after noon local time on 7 July 2003. During this period two coherent Doppler lidars performed overlapping low elevation angle sector scans upwind and south of Oklahoma City’s central business district. Radial velocity data from the two lidars are processed to reveal the structure and evolution of the horizontal velocity field in the surface layer throughout the afternoon and during the evening transition period. The retrieved velocity fields clearly show a tendency for turbulence structures to be elongated in the direction of the mean flow throughout the entire 10-h study period. In order to quantify the observed anisotropy and its dependence on stability, integral length scales are estimated directly from the spatially resolved velocity retrievals. As the flow became more stably stratified the characteristic cross-stream dimension of the linear structures decreased. The streamwise component was consistently more anisotropic than the cross-stream component, and both velocity components exhibited maximum anisotropy under neutral conditions. The ratio of the streamwise to cross-stream length scale was estimated to be about eight for the streamwise component, and four for the cross-stream component under neutral conditions.     

Discriminant analysis for estimation of groundwater age from hydrochemistry and well construction: application to New Zealand aquifers

Concentrations of tritium, chlorofluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride have been measured at over 100 groundwater monitoring sites across New Zealand, followed by interpretation of groundwater age distribution using the exponential-piston flow model. Interpreted mean residence times ranged from less than 1 year to more than 100 years, with the 25th, 50th (median) and 75th percentiles being approximately 10, 40 and 100 years, respectively. Classification functions derived from discriminant analysis and based on nine input variables (well depth, electrical conductivity and the concentrations of the ions Na, K, Ca, Mg, HCO₃, Cl and SO₄) allowed assignment of 71% of the sites to the correct of four age categories (mean residence time 10 years or less, 11–40 years, 41–100 years, or more than 100 years). The discriminant analysis classification functions were more effective than regression methods for estimating groundwater age from hydrochemistry and well depth, and can thus be used to predict the groundwater age category for any monitoring site in New Zealand.     

European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations

Two European temperature reconstructions for the past half-millennium, January-to-April air temperature for Stockholm (Sweden) and seasonal temperature for a Central European region, both derived from the analysis of documentary sources and long instrumental records, are compared with the output of climate simulations with the model ECHO-G. The analysis is complemented by comparisons with the long (early)-instrumental record of Central England Temperature (CET). Both approaches to study past climates (simulations and reconstructions) are burdened with uncertainties. The main objective of this comparative analysis is to identify robust features and weaknesses in each method which may help to improve models and reconstruction methods. The results indicate a general agreement between simulations obtained with temporally changing external forcings and the reconstructed Stockholm and CET records for the multi-centennial temperature trend over the recent centuries, which is not reproduced in a control simulation. This trend is likely due to the long-term change in external forcing. Additionally, the Stockholm reconstruction and the CET record also show a clear multi-decadal warm episode peaking around AD 1730, which is absent in the simulations. Neither the reconstruction uncertainties nor the model internal climate variability can easily explain this difference. Regarding the interannual variability, the Stockholm series displays, in some periods, higher amplitudes than the simulations but these differences are within the statistical uncertainty and further decrease if output from a regional model driven by the global model is used. The long-term trend of the CET series agrees less well with the simulations. The reconstructed temperature displays, for all seasons, a smaller difference between the present climate and past centuries than is seen in the simulations. Possible reasons for these differences may be related to a limitation of the traditional ‘indexing’ technique for converting documentary evidence to temperature values to capture long-term climate changes, because the documents often reflect temperatures relative to the contemporary authors’ own perception of what constituted ‘normal’ conditions. By contrast, the amplitude of the simulated and reconstructed inter-annual variability agrees rather well.     

What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions?

Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated with these systems. The phenomena that determine these long-term developments (several decades or even centuries) are very different than those that operate on a shorter time-scales (a few years). Nevertheless, in the literature, we still often find direct comparisons between short-term observations and long-term developments that do not take into account the differing dynamics over these time scales. In this letter, we discuss some of the differences between the factors that operate in the short term and those that operate in the long term. We use long-term historical emissions trends to show that short-term observations are very poor indicators of long-term future emissions developments. Based on this, we conclude that the performance of long-term scenarios should be evaluated against the appropriate, corresponding long-term variables and trends. The research community may facilitate this by developing appropriate data sets and protocols that can be used to test the performance of long-term scenarios and the models that produce them.