A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Flexural subsidence by 29 Ma on the NE edge of Tibet from the magnetostratigraphy of Linxia Basin, China

This study provides a detailed magnetostratigraphic record of subsidence in the Linxia Basin, documenting a 27 Myr long sedimentary record from the northeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. Deposition in the Linxia Basin began at 29 Ma and continued nearly uninterruptedly until 1.7 Ma. Increasing rates of subsidence between 29 and 6 Ma in the Linxia Basin suggest deposition in the foredeep portion of a flexural basin and constrain the timing of shortening in the northeastern margin of the plateau to Late Oligocene–Late Miocene time. By Late Miocene–Early Pliocene time, a decrease in subsidence rates in the Linxia Basin associated with thrust faulting and a 10° clockwise rotation in the basin indicates that the deformation front of the Tibetan plateau had propagated into the currently deforming region northeast of the plateau.     

A Wet/Wet Differential Pressure Sensor for Measuring Vertical Hydraulic Gradient

Vertical hydraulic gradient is commonly measured in rivers, lakes, and streams for studies of groundwater–surface water interaction. While a number of methods with subtle differences have been applied, these methods can generally be separated into two categories; measuring surface water elevation and pressure in the subsurface separately or making direct measurements of the head difference with a manometer. Making separate head measurements allows for the use of electronic pressure sensors, providing large datasets that are particularly useful when the vertical hydraulic gradient fluctuates over time. On the other hand, using a manometer-based method provides an easier and more rapid measurement with a simpler computation to calculate the vertical hydraulic gradient. In this study, we evaluated a wet/wet differential pressure sensor for use in measuring vertical hydraulic gradient. This approach combines the advantage of high-temporal frequency measurements obtained with instrumented piezometers with the simplicity and reduced potential for human-induced error obtained with a manometer board method. Our results showed that the wet/wet differential pressure sensor provided results comparable to more traditional methods, making it an acceptable method for future use.     

Late Pleistocene and Holocene Afromontane vegetation and headwater wetland dynamics within the Eastern Mau Forest,Kenya

The Mau Forest Complex is Kenya's largest fragment of Afromontane forest, providing critical ecosystem services, and has been subject to intense land use changes since colonial times. It forms the upper catchment of rivers that drain into major drainage networks, thus supporting the livelihoods of millions of Kenyans and providing important wildlife areas. We present the results of a sedimentological and palynological analysis of a Late Pleistocene–Holocene sediment record of Afromontane forest change from Nyabuiyabui wetland in the Eastern Mau Forest, a highland region that has received limited geological characterization and palaeoecological study. Sedimentology, pollen, charcoal, X-ray fluorescence and radiocarbon data record environmental and ecosystem change over the last ~16 000 cal a bp. The pollen record suggests Afromontane forests characterized the end of the Late Pleistocene to the Holocene with dominant taxa changing from Apodytes, Celtis, Dracaena, Hagenia and Podocarpus to Cordia, Croton, Ficus, Juniperus and Olea. The Late Holocene is characterized by a more open Afromontane forest with increased grass and herbaceous cover. Continuous Poaceae, Cyperaceae and Juncaceae vegetation currently cover the wetland and the water level has been decreasing over the recent past. Intensive agroforestry since the 1920s has reduced Afromontane forest cover as introduced taxa have increased (Pinus, Cupressus and Eucalyptus).     

The electrical structure of the Slave craton

The Slave craton in northwestern Canada, a relatively small Archean craton (600×400 km), is ideal as a natural laboratory for investigating the formation and evolution of Mesoarchean and Neoarchean sub-continental lithospheric mantle (SCLM). Excellent outcrop and the discovery of economic diamondiferous kimberlite pipes in the centre of the craton during the early 1990s have led to an unparalleled amount of geoscientific information becoming available.

Over the last 5 years deep-probing electromagnetic surveys were conducted on the Slave, using the natural-source magnetotelluric (MT) technique, as part of a variety of programs to study the craton and determine its regional-scale electrical structure. Two of the four types of surveys involved novel MT data acquisition; one through frozen lakes along ice roads during winter, and the second using ocean-bottom MT instrumentation deployed from float planes.

The primary initial objective of the MT surveys was to determine the geometry of the topography of the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB) across the Slave craton. However, the MT responses revealed, completely serendipitously, a remarkable anomaly in electrical conductivity in the SCLM of the central Slave craton. This Central Slave Mantle Conductor (CSMC) anomaly is modelled as a localized region of low resistivity (10–15 Ω m) beginning at depths of 80–120 km and striking NE–SW. Where precisely located, it is spatially coincident with the Eocene-aged kimberlite field in the central part of the craton (the so-called “Corridor of Hope”), and also with a geochemically defined ultra-depleted harzburgitic layer interpreted as oceanic or arc-related lithosphere emplaced during early tectonism. The CSMC lies wholly within the NE–SW striking central zone defined by Grütter et al. [Grütter, H.S., Apter, D.B., Kong, J., 1999. Crust–mantle coupling; evidence from mantle-derived xenocrystic garnets. Contributed paper at: The 7th International Kimberlite Conference Proceeding, J.B. Dawson Volume, 1, 307–313] on the basis of garnet geochemistry (G10 vs. G9) populations.

Deep-probing MT data from the lake bottom instruments infer that the conductor has a total depth-integrated conductivity (conductance) of the order of 2000 Siemens, which, given an internal resistivity of 10–15 Ω m, implies a thickness of 20–30 km. Below the CSMC the electrical resistivity of the lithosphere increases by a factor of 3–5 to values of around 50 Ω m. This change occurs at depths consistent with the graphite–diamond transition, which is taken as consistent with a carbon interpretation for the CSMC.

Preliminary three-dimensional MT modelling supports the NE–SW striking geometry for the conductor, and also suggests a NW dip. This geometry is taken as implying that the tectonic processes that emplaced this geophysical–geochemical body are likely related to the subduction of a craton of unknown provenance from the SE (present-day coordinates) during 2630–2620 Ma. It suggests that the lithospheric stacking model of Helmstaedt and Schulze [Helmstaedt, H.H., Schulze, D.J., 1989. Southern African kimberlites and their mantle sample: implications for Archean tectonics and lithosphere evolution. In Ross, J. (Ed.), Kimberlites and Related Rocks, Vol. 1: Their Composition, Occurrence, Origin, and Emplacement. Geological Society of Australia Special Publication, vol. 14, 358–368] is likely correct for the formation of the Slave's current SCLM.     

Improved age constraint for pre‐ and post‐Anglian temperate‐stage deposits in north Norfolk,UK, from analysis of serine decomposition in Bithynia opercula

The ‘new glacial stratigraphy’ (NGS) of Britain postulates that deposits hitherto assigned to the Anglian glaciation in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 12 represent MIS 16, 12, 10 and 6. This controversial idea can be tested at Sidestrand in north Norfolk, where fossiliferous temperate‐stage deposits underlie the oldest and overlie the youngest of the glacial deposits. Previous work has considered biostratigraphy and amino acid dating of these temperate‐stage deposits, but did not achieve tight age constraint using the amino acid evidence alone. The total hydrolysable amino acid fraction in intra‐crystalline protein from Bithynia tentaculata opercula has previously been analysed for concentrations of serine and alanine. Statistical screening of these data gives alanine/serine ratios of 4.572 ± 0.114 for the Sidestrand Hall Member (beneath the glacial deposits) and 3.564 ± 0.091 for the Sidestrand Cliff Formation (overlying the glacial deposits). These ratios imply ages of MIS 13a and 11c, respectively, indicating the latest Cromerian and early Hoxnian interglacials and invalidating the NGS. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Pleistocene terrace staircase of the River Thame, central-southern England, and its significance for regional stratigraphic correlation, drainage development, and vertical crustal motions

The Thame is one of the principal left-bank affluents of the Thames, the largest river in southern England; it joins the Upper Thames at Dorchester, ∼20 km downstream of Oxford. Its terraces include a younger group of four, which date from the late Middle Pleistocene and Late Pleistocene, are disposed subparallel to the modern river, and represent drainage within the modern catchment. At higher levels there are three older terraces, the Three Pigeons, Tiddington and Chilworth terraces, which are assigned to MIS 16, 14 and 12. With much gentler downstream gradients, these are fragmentary remnants of much more substantial fluvial deposits, indicating a much larger river that was disrupted by the Anglian (MIS 12) glaciation. This interpretation supersedes an earlier view that the glacigenic deposits in the Thame headwaters correlate with the Blackditch terrace, the highest of the younger group, which has hitherto provided an argument that the glaciation in this region occurred in MIS 10. It is suggested that the headwaters of the pre-Anglian ‘Greater Thame’ river were located near Northampton and that the Milton Sands of that area represent an upstream counterpart of the Chilworth terrace deposits. It is envisaged that this early Middle Pleistocene drainage geometry, located between the Jurassic limestone and Chalk escarpments, developed as a result of the increase in uplift rates that followed the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (MPR). It is suggested that before this time, including during the Early Pleistocene, the modern Thame catchment and adjacent regions drained southeastward through the Chalk escarpment, but these small rivers lacked the erosional power to cut through the Chalk in pace with the faster uplift occurring in the early Middle Pleistocene, and so became diverted to the southwest, subparallel to the Chalk escarpment, to form the pre-Anglian ‘Greater Thame’ tributary of the Upper Thames. The post-MPR uplift is estimated to decrease northwestward from 90 m in the Middle Thames to 75 m near the Thame-Thames confluence and to 65 m upstream of Oxford. The post-Anglian (post-450 ka) component of uplift decreases northward from 33 m near the Thame-Thames confluence to an estimated ∼20 m in the Northampton area; the relative stability of the latter area makes feasible the proposed correlation between the Milton Sands and the pre-Anglian River Thame. Limited post-Anglian uplift in the Northampton area is also inferred from the upstream convergence of the terraces of the modern rivers Nene and Great Ouse. These observed lateral variations in vertical crustal motions reflect lateral variations in crustal properties (including heat flow, crustal thickness, and thickness of underplating at the base of the crust) that are known independently. This study thus provides, for the first time, an integrated explanation of the Pleistocene drainage development across a large region of central-southern England.