Analysis and catalogue of sneaker waves in the US Pacific Northwest between 2005 and 2017

Sneaker waves are responsible for many casualties and beach rescues in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the USA. In this paper, a catalogue of these events from 2005 to mid-2017 in Oregon and Northern California is presented. The events are grouped depending on the local characteristics into those involving structures, semi-enclosed beaches, and open-coast beaches. It was found that sneaker waves occurred between the months of October and April, which is also the time of the year of most storm activity in the PNW. The majority of the events are associated with long-period swell approaching the coast. Beach slope and significant wave height were not found to correlate with sneaker wave incidents. However, total water level analysis reveals that the run-up level was expected to reach the beachgoers for the majority of the investigated cases indicating that a forecasting system to warn beachgoers is possible.     

Calibration of decomposition of serine to alanine in Bithynia opercula as a quantitative dating technique for Middle and Late Pleistocene sites in Britain

The concentration ratio of the amino acids alanine and serine in calcite opercula of freshwater gastropods of genus Bithynia has been assessed as an age proxy for British Middle and Late Pleistocene sites. Due to decomposition of peptide-bound serine within intra-crystalline protein molecules, alanine/serine ratios increase with sample age, enabling resolution of the marine oxygen-isotope stage of almost all sites and substage resolution for some sites. However, slight overlaps are evident in alanine/serine ratios between some sites from late in one temperate stage and early in the next; this effect results from the low decomposition rates during cold stages, combined with an evident slight dependence of decomposition rates on site conditions. The technique, which can be extended to the Early Pleistocene without technical refinements, is amenable to quantitative calibration using a first-order rate equation, making it feasible in future to present results as numerical ages, subject to an assumed temperature history. Most Pleistocene sites investigated are shown using this technique to have the same ages as previously deduced using biostratigraphy. However, the serine–alanine ages obtained preclude glaciation of southeast England during MIS 16 or of central England during MIS 10.     

Forecast of Natural Aquifer Discharge Using a Data‐Driven,Statistical Approach

In the Western United States, demand for water is often out of balance with limited water supplies. This has led to extensive water rights conflict and litigation. A tool that can reliably forecast natural aquifer discharge months ahead of peak water demand could help water practitioners and managers by providing advanced knowledge of potential water‐right mitigation requirements. The timing and magnitude of natural aquifer discharge from the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer (ESPA) in southern Idaho is accurately forecast 4 months ahead of the peak water demand, which occurs annually in July. An ARIMA time‐series model with exogenous predictors (ARIMAX model) was used to develop the forecast. The ARIMAX model fit to a set of training data was assessed using Akaike's information criterion to select the optimal model that forecasts aquifer discharge, given the previous year's discharge and values of the predictor variables. Model performance was assessed by application of the model to a validation subset of data. The Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency for model predictions made on the validation set was 0.57. The predictor variables used in our forecast represent the major recharge and discharge components of the ESPA water budget, including variables that reflect overall water supply and important aspects of water administration and management. Coefficients of variation on the regression coefficients for streamflow and irrigation diversions were all much less than 0.5, indicating that these variables are strong predictors. The model with the highest AIC weight included streamflow, two irrigation diversion variables, and storage.     

A skeleton design theory for spatial data infrastructure

In this paper, we look into the theory of designing geoservice systems, i.e., SDI networks and their constituent SDI nodes. As the field of SDI is strongly about bridging between geoservice systems, interoperability and harmonisation, it is not surprising that standardisation efforts are of crucial importance in it. These efforts have historically addressed abstract and concrete content models for data and metadata exchange, as well as abstract and concrete behavioural models for computational processes. The list of standards that are in use in the SDI field continues to expand, and reaches out to neighbouring fields such as sensor nets. We argue that given these trends, the resulting levels of standardisation in actual systems, and the complexity of geoservice systems in general, it appears only natural to look into the possibility to define a standardised design theory for SDI and its nodes, which addresses the function base and the communication base. Specifically, we provide an overview of those components that need to be designed, and what are their relationships. We do so in an abstract way, focussing on the concern of information content in this paper, and only hinting at an appropriate theory of realisation based on our skeleton theory.     

European temperature records of the past five centuries based on documentary/instrumental information compared to climate simulations

Two European temperature reconstructions for the past half-millennium, January-to-April air temperature for Stockholm (Sweden) and seasonal temperature for a Central European region, both derived from the analysis of documentary sources and long instrumental records, are compared with the output of climate simulations with the model ECHO-G. The analysis is complemented by comparisons with the long (early)-instrumental record of Central England Temperature (CET). Both approaches to study past climates (simulations and reconstructions) are burdened with uncertainties. The main objective of this comparative analysis is to identify robust features and weaknesses in each method which may help to improve models and reconstruction methods. The results indicate a general agreement between simulations obtained with temporally changing external forcings and the reconstructed Stockholm and CET records for the multi-centennial temperature trend over the recent centuries, which is not reproduced in a control simulation. This trend is likely due to the long-term change in external forcing. Additionally, the Stockholm reconstruction and the CET record also show a clear multi-decadal warm episode peaking around AD 1730, which is absent in the simulations. Neither the reconstruction uncertainties nor the model internal climate variability can easily explain this difference. Regarding the interannual variability, the Stockholm series displays, in some periods, higher amplitudes than the simulations but these differences are within the statistical uncertainty and further decrease if output from a regional model driven by the global model is used. The long-term trend of the CET series agrees less well with the simulations. The reconstructed temperature displays, for all seasons, a smaller difference between the present climate and past centuries than is seen in the simulations. Possible reasons for these differences may be related to a limitation of the traditional ‘indexing’ technique for converting documentary evidence to temperature values to capture long-term climate changes, because the documents often reflect temperatures relative to the contemporary authors’ own perception of what constituted ‘normal’ conditions. By contrast, the amplitude of the simulated and reconstructed inter-annual variability agrees rather well.     

Inputs of iron,manganese and aluminium to surface waters of the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the European continental shelf

Dissolved Fe, Mn and Al concentrations (dFe, dMn and dAl hereafter) in surface waters and the water column of the Northeast Atlantic and the European continental shelf are reported. Following an episode of enhanced Saharan dust inputs over the Northeast Atlantic Ocean prior and during the cruise in March 1998, surface concentrations were enhanced up to 4 nmol L^− 1 dFe, 3 nmol L^− 1 dMn and 40 nmol L^− 1 dAl and returned to 0.6 nmol L^− 1 dFe, 0.5 nmol L^− 1 dMn and 10 nmol L^− 1 dAl towards the end of the cruise three weeks later. A simple steady state model (MADCOW, [Measures, C.I., Brown, E.T., 1996. Estimating dust input to the Atlantic Ocean using surface water aluminium concentrations. In: Guerzoni. S. and Chester. R. (Eds.), The impact of desert dust across the Mediterranean, Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, pp. 301–311.]) was used which relies on surface ocean dAl as a proxy for atmospheric deposition of mineral dust. We estimated dust input at 1.8 g m^− 2 yr^− 1 (range 1.0–2.9 g m^− 2 yr^− 1) and fluxes of dFe, dMn and dAl were inferred. Mixed layer steady state residence times for dissolved metals were estimated at 1.3 yr for dFe (range 0.3–2.9 yr) and 1.9 yr for dMn (range 1.0–3.8 yr). The dFe residence time may have been overestimated and it is shown that 0.2–0.4 yr is probably more realistic. Using vertical dFe versus Apparent Oxygen Utilization (AOU) relationships as well as a biogeochemical two end member mixing model, regenerative Fe:C ratios were estimated respectively to be 20 ± 6 and 22 ± 5 μmol Fe:mol C. Combining the atmospheric flux of dFe to the upper water column with the latter Fe:C ratio, a ‘new iron’ supported primary productivity of only 15% (range 7%–56%) was deduced. This would imply that 85% (range 44–93%) of primary productivity could be supported by regenerated dFe. The open ocean surface data suggest that the continental shelf is probably not a major source of dissolved metals to the surface of the adjacent open ocean. Continental shelf concentrations of dMn, dFe, and to a lesser extent dAl, were well correlated with salinity and express mixing of a fresher continental end member with Atlantic Ocean water flowing onto the shelf. This means probably that diffusive benthic fluxes did not play a major role at the time of the cruise.     

Towards a protocol for laser scanning of rock surfaces

The precision of height measurements derived from laser scanning a weathered rock surface was analysed. Different registration methods for comparing surfaces to deduce weathering were assessed and the most precise was found to be the method that used registration shapes as control, located in different planes relative to the scanned surface. In addition, the different sources of error in scanning precision were assessed by varying factors such as scan distance, lens configuration, scan angle and the nature of the topography being scanned. From this analysis it was possible to suggest what the optimal scanning conditions were for this particular experimental set‐up. The procedures outlined for assessing errors in the precision of height measurements are transferable to other scanning studies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Collating Historic Weather Observations for the East Asian Region:Challenges,Solutions,and Reanalyses

正1.Introduction Historic instrumental weather observations,made on land or at sea from as early as the 17th century(e.g.,Camuffo et al.,2010),are integral to extending our understanding of the decadal and centennial variations of Earth’s climate and for comparison with paleo-proxy data.The potential of such data is shown to best effect when used in dynamical 4D global