A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Flexural subsidence by 29 Ma on the NE edge of Tibet from the magnetostratigraphy of Linxia Basin, China

This study provides a detailed magnetostratigraphic record of subsidence in the Linxia Basin, documenting a 27 Myr long sedimentary record from the northeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. Deposition in the Linxia Basin began at 29 Ma and continued nearly uninterruptedly until 1.7 Ma. Increasing rates of subsidence between 29 and 6 Ma in the Linxia Basin suggest deposition in the foredeep portion of a flexural basin and constrain the timing of shortening in the northeastern margin of the plateau to Late Oligocene–Late Miocene time. By Late Miocene–Early Pliocene time, a decrease in subsidence rates in the Linxia Basin associated with thrust faulting and a 10° clockwise rotation in the basin indicates that the deformation front of the Tibetan plateau had propagated into the currently deforming region northeast of the plateau.     

Active crustal deformation beyond the SE margin of the Tibetan Plateau: Constraints from the evolution of fluvial systems

An integrated explanation is proposed for the Late Cenozoic crustal deformation in Yunnan, SW China, using sedimentary and geomorphological evidence from the Yangtze and Red River systems. The observed fluvial incision indicates up to ~ 15 km of crustal thickening, associated with ~ 3 km of uplift, apparently triggered at ~ 8 Ma by monsoon-induced erosion drawing mobile lower crust from beneath Tibet to the northwest. The mobile lower-crustal layer beneath Yunnan was initially very thin, but a positive feedback loop developed, whereby each incremental influx of lower-crust widened and heated this layer, facilitating the next increment. At ~ 5 Ma, the shear tractions exerted on the brittle upper-crust by this flowing lower crust became sufficient to reactivate pre-existing lines of weakness, dragging blocks of the brittle layer southward and creating the region′s modern active fault systems. This region thus provides a dramatic example of crustal deformation induced by Late Cenozoic climate change, notwithstanding its location adjoining the India–Eurasia plate boundary.     

A Wet/Wet Differential Pressure Sensor for Measuring Vertical Hydraulic Gradient

Vertical hydraulic gradient is commonly measured in rivers, lakes, and streams for studies of groundwater–surface water interaction. While a number of methods with subtle differences have been applied, these methods can generally be separated into two categories; measuring surface water elevation and pressure in the subsurface separately or making direct measurements of the head difference with a manometer. Making separate head measurements allows for the use of electronic pressure sensors, providing large datasets that are particularly useful when the vertical hydraulic gradient fluctuates over time. On the other hand, using a manometer-based method provides an easier and more rapid measurement with a simpler computation to calculate the vertical hydraulic gradient. In this study, we evaluated a wet/wet differential pressure sensor for use in measuring vertical hydraulic gradient. This approach combines the advantage of high-temporal frequency measurements obtained with instrumented piezometers with the simplicity and reduced potential for human-induced error obtained with a manometer board method. Our results showed that the wet/wet differential pressure sensor provided results comparable to more traditional methods, making it an acceptable method for future use.     

Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.     

Architecture and evolution of syn-rift clastic depositional systems towards the tip of a major fault segment, Suez Rift, Egypt

ABSTRACT This paper investigates syn‐rift stratigraphic architecture and facies relationships along a 7 km long strike section towards the tip of a major, basin‐bounding normal fault segment (Thal Fault) in the Suez Rift, Egypt. In this location, the fault is composed of two precursor fault strands, Gushea and Abu Ideimat, linked by a jog or transfer fault. We document a Miocene syn‐rift succession, deposited more than c. 5.5 Myr after rift initiation, that is composed of a range of carbonate‐clastic facies associated with coarse‐grained deltaic, shoreface and offshore depositional systems. Key regionally correlatable stratal surfaces within this succession define time equivalent stratal units that exhibit variability in thickness and architecture, related to the interplay of both regional and local controls, in particular, the evolution of two, small‐scale (<6 km long) precursor fault strands (Gushea and Abu Ideimat). Integration of structural and stratigraphic data indicates that the boundary (relay ramp) between these two fault strands was a relative high during much of the rift event, with hard‐linkage and considerable displacement accumulation not occurring until at least c. 7.5 Myr after rift initiation. This is because: (i) the preserved stratigraphy is thinner in the hanging wall of the strand boundary; (ii) a eustatic sea‐level fall with an amplitude of 100 m generated more than 25 m of incision at the strand boundary, a region that has a final fault displacement of c. 600 m; and (iii) the fault strand boundary persisted as a footwall low and transport pathway for coarse‐grained deltas entering the basin. This study indicates that variability in stratal thickness and stratigraphic architecture towards the tip of the Thal Fault was related to the linkage history of two small‐scale (c. 6 km long) precursor fault segments. We suggest that similar, small‐scale stratal variability may occur repeatedly along the entire length of major basin‐bounding fault segments due to the process of fault growth by the linkage of smaller scale precursor strands.     

Subsidence in the super-deep Pattani and Malay basins of Southeast Asia: a coupled model incorporating lower-crustal flow in response to post-rift sediment loading

Two Early Cenozoic rifts in Southeast Asia (beneath the Pattani and Malay basins) experienced only limited upper-crustal extension (β≤1.5); yet very thick post-rift sequences are present, with 6–12 km of Late Cenozoic terrestrial and shallow-marine sediment derived from adjacent sources. Conventional post-rift backstripping requires depth-dependent lithospheric thinning by β=2–4 to explain these tremendous thicknesses. We assess an alternative explanation for this post-rift subsidence, involving lower-crustal flow from beneath these basins in response to lateral pressure-gradients induced by the sediment loads and the negative loads arising from the erosion of their sediment sources. We calculate that increased rates of erosion in western Thailand in the Early Miocene placed the crust in a non-steady thermal state, such that the depth (and thus, the pressure) at the base of the brittle upper crust subsequently varied over time. Following such a perturbation, thermal and mass-flux steady-state conditions took millions of years to re-establish. In the meantime, the lateral pressure-gradient caused net outflow of lower crust, thinning the crust beneath the depocentre by several kilometres (mimicking the isostatic effect of greater crustal extension having occurred beforehand) and thickening it beneath the sediment source region. The local combination of hot crust and high rates of surface processes, causing lower-crustal flow to be particularly vigorous and thus making its effects more readily identifiable, means that the Pattani and Malay basins represent a set of conditions different from basins in many other regions. However, lower-crustal flow induced by surface processes will also occur to some extent, but less recognisably, in many other continental crustal provinces, but its effects may be mistaken for those of other processes, such as larger-magnitude stretching and/or depth-dependent stretching.     

Petrogenesis of late stage magmatism at Hold with Hope, East Greenland

The Myggbukta caldera complex and a swarm of basic dykes constitute the latest Tertiary magmatism in the Hold with Hope region, East Greenland. The Sr and Nd isotope ratios of these rocks show coherent variations which extend to high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and low ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd values and require a contribution from continental lithosphere. Broad correlations with major element differentiation indices suggest that the continental component was incorporated during magmatic differentiation thereby favouring a crustal contamination process. Trace element concentrations are strongly correlated with isotopic compositions but display ranges for many incompatible elements which extend beyond likely crustal contaminant compositions. This is readily modelled by AFC processes in which the dominant cause of trace element enrichment is the concentration effect of fractional crystallisation rather than the composition of the contaminant. The simplest such models still require unrealistically high degrees of fractional crystallisation to explain the ten-fold enrichment of some trace elements. This can be overcome if the primary magmas entering the crust already had highly variable trace element compositions. Such variability is readily achieved if melts from different parts of the melting column escape without thorough homogenization. An AFC model which incorporates variability in parental magma composition is then able to simulate the range of compositions observed at Hold with Hope. This carries the implication that the variations observed are more readily attributed to changes in uncontaminated parental magma than to variations in the composition or amount of contaminant. Received: 5 March 1998 / Accepted: 16 June 1998