Forecasting Natural Aquifer Discharge Using a Numerical Model and Convolution

If the nature of groundwater sources and sinks can be determined or predicted, the data can be used to forecast natural aquifer discharge. We present a procedure to forecast the relative contribution of individual aquifer sources and sinks to natural aquifer discharge. Using these individual aquifer recharge components, along with observed aquifer heads for each January, we generate a 1‐year, monthly spring discharge forecast for the upcoming year with an existing numerical model and convolution. The results indicate that a forecast of natural aquifer discharge can be developed using only the dominant aquifer recharge sources combined with the effects of aquifer heads (initial conditions) at the time the forecast is generated. We also estimate how our forecast will perform in the future using a jackknife procedure, which indicates that the future performance of the forecast is good (Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.81). We develop a forecast and demonstrate important features of the procedure by presenting an application to the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer in southern Idaho.     

Sharing the burden of financing adaptation to climate change

Climate change may cause most harm to countries that have historically contributed the least to greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change. This paper identifies consequentialist and non-consequentialist ethical principles to guide a fair international burden-sharing scheme of climate change adaptation costs. We use these ethical principles to derive political principles – historical responsibility and capacity to pay – that can be applied in assigning a share of the financial burden to individual countries. We then propose a hybrid ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’ approach as a promising starting point for international negotiations on the design of burden-sharing schemes. A numerical assessment of seven scenarios shows that the countries of Annex I of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change would bear the bulk of the costs of adaptation, but contributions differ substantially subject to the choice of a capacity to pay indicator. The contributions are less sensitive to choices related to responsibility calculations, apart from those associated with land-use-related emissions. Assuming costs of climate adaptation of USD 100 billion per year, the total financial contribution by the Annex I countries would be in the range of USD 65–70 billion per year. Expressed as a per capita basis, this gives a range of USD 43–82 per capita per year.     

Five centuries of Stockholm winter/spring temperatures reconstructed from documentary evidence and instrumental observations

Historical documentary sources, reflecting different port activities in Stockholm, are utilised to derive a 500-year winter/spring temperature reconstruction for the region. These documentary sources reflect sea ice conditions in the harbour inlet and those series that overlap with the instrumental data correlate well with winter/spring temperatures. By refining dendroclimatological methods, the time-series were composited to a mean series and calibrated (1756–1841; r ²?=?66%) against Stockholm January–April temperatures. Strong verification was confirmed (1842–1892; r ²?=?60%; RE/CE?=?0.55). By including the instrumental data, the quantified (QUAN) reconstruction indicates that recent two decades have been the warmest period for the last 500 years. Coldest conditions occurred during the 16th/17th and early 19th centuries. An independent qualitative (QUAL) historical index was also derived for the Stockholm region. Comparison between QUAN and QUAL shows good coherence at inter-annual time-scales, but QUAL distinctly appears to lack low frequency information. Comparison is also made to other winter temperature based annually resolved records for the Baltic region. Between proxy coherence is generally good although it decreases going back in time with the 1500–1550 period being the weakest period—possibly reflecting data quality issues in the different reconstructions.     

Field Test of Enhanced Remedial Amendment Delivery Using a Shear‐Thinning Fluid

Heterogeneity of hydraulic properties in aquifers may lead to contaminants residing in lower‐permeability zones where it is difficult to deliver remediation amendments using conventional injection processes. The focus of this study is to examine use of a shear‐thinning fluid (STF) to improve the uniformity of remedial amendment distribution within a heterogeneous aquifer. Previous studies have demonstrated the significant potential of STFs for improving remedial amendment delivery in heterogeneous aquifers, but quantitative evaluation of these improvements from field applications is lacking. A field‐scale test was conducted that compares data from successive injection of a tracer in water followed by injection of a tracer in an STF to evaluate the impact of the STF on tracer distribution uniformity in the presence of permeability contrasts within the targeted injection zone. Data from tracer breakthrough at multiple depth‐discrete monitoring intervals and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) showed that inclusion of STF in the injection solution improved the distribution of the injected fluid within the targeted treatment zone. One improvement was a reduction in the movement of injected fluids through high‐permeability pathways, as evidenced by slower breakthrough of tracer at monitoring locations where breakthrough in baseline tracer‐only injection data was faster. In addition, STF‐amended injection solutions arrived faster and to a greater extent in monitoring locations within low‐permeability zones. ERT data showed that the STF injection covered a higher percentage of a two‐dimensional cross section within the injection interval between the injection well and a monitoring well about 3 m away.     

Geometry and architecture of faults in a syn-rift normal fault array: The Nukhul half-graben, Suez rift, Egypt

The geometry and architecture of a well exposed syn-rift normal fault array in the Suez rift is examined. At pre-rift level, the Nukhul fault consists of a single zone of intense deformation up to 10 m wide, with a significant monocline in the hanging wall and much more limited folding in the footwall. At syn-rift level, the fault zone is characterised by a single discrete fault zone less than 2 m wide, with damage zone faults up to approximately 200 m into the hanging wall, and with no significant monocline developed. The evolution of the fault from a buried structure with associated fault-propagation folding, to a surface-breaking structure with associated surface faulting, has led to enhanced bedding-parallel slip at lower levels that is absent at higher levels. Strain is enhanced at breached relay ramps and bends inherited from pre-existing structures that were reactivated during rifting. Damage zone faults observed within the pre-rift show ramp-flat geometries associated with contrast in competency of the layers cut and commonly contain zones of scaly shale or clay smear. Damage zone faults within the syn-rift are commonly very straight, and may be discrete fault planes with no visible fault rock at the scale of observation, or contain relatively thin and simple zones of scaly shale or gouge. The geometric and architectural evolution of the fault array is interpreted to be the result of (i) the evolution from distributed trishear deformation during upward propagation of buried fault tips to surface faulting after faults breach the surface; (ii) differences in deformation response between lithified pre-rift units that display high competence contrasts during deformation, and unlithified syn-rift units that display low competence contrasts during deformation, and; (iii) the history of segmentation, growth and linkage of the faults that make up the fault array. This has important implications for fluid flow in fault zones.     

Sr–Nd isotope geochemistry of the early Precambrian sub-alkaline mafic igneous rocks from the southern Bastar craton, Central India

Sr–Nd isotope data are reported for the early Precambrian sub-alkaline mafic igneous rocks of the southern Bastar craton, central India. These mafic rocks are mostly dykes but there are a few volcanic exposures. Field relationships together with the petrological and geochemical characteristics of these mafic dykes divide them into two groups; Meso-Neoarchaean sub-alkaline mafic dykes (BD1) and Paleoproterozoic (1.88 Ga) sub-alkaline mafic dykes (BD2). The mafic volcanics are Neoarchaean in age and have very close geochemical relationships with the BD1 type. The two groups have distinctly different concentrations of high-field strength (HFSE) and rare earth elements (REE). The BD2 dykes have higher concentrations of HFSE and REE than the BD1 dykes and associated volcanics and both groups have very distinctive petrogenetic histories. These rocks display a limited range of initial ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd but a wide range of apparent initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr. Initial ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd values in the BD1 dykes and associated volcanics vary between 0.509149 and 0.509466 and in the BD2 dykes the variation is between 0.510303 and 0.510511. All samples have positive ? _Nd values; the BD1 dykes and associated volcanics have ? _Nd values between +0.3 and +6.5 and the BD2 dykes between +1.9 to +6.0. Trace element and Nd isotope data do not suggest severe crustal contamination during the emplacement of the studied rocks. The positive ? _Nd values suggest their derivation from a depleted mantle source. Overlapping positive ? _Nd values suggest that a similar mantle source tapped by variable melt fractions at different times was responsible for the genesis of BD1 (and associated volcanics) and BD2 mafic dykes. The Rb–Sr system is susceptible to alteration and resetting during post-magmatic alteration and metamorphism. Many of the samples studied have anomalous apparent initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr suggesting post-magmatic changes of the Rb–Sr system which severely restricts the use of Rb–Sr for petrogenetic interpretation.     

Microseismicity and structure of the Germencik area, western Turkey

Microseismicity at the boundary between two segments of the Büyük Menderes active normal fault zone, western Turkey, was monitored for two weeks during 1990 April and May, using a dense network of six portable seismographs with spacing ∼1–2 km. Extension rate across this fault zone is investigated by three independent methods; our preferred estimate is 1.2 ± 0.4 mm yr⁻¹. The area contains a geothermal field, but microseismicity appears unrelated to geothermal well positions and was thus lower than expected; six local events were recorded, none larger than magnitude 2. Microearthquakes in this size range contribute negligibly to local tectonic deformation. However, frequency of occurrence of these and local magnitude 7 events both satisfy the standard Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The local geomorphology includes an example of river capture associated with elevation changes accompanying changing patterns of slip on individual fault segments, which appears to have occurred less than 1 Myr ago.     

Turbulence statistics of a Kelvin–Helmholtz billow event observed in the night-time boundary layer during the Cooperative Atmosphere–Surface Exchange Study field program

An apparent shear flow instability occurred in the stably stratified night-time boundary layer on 6 October 1999 over the Cooperative Atmosphere–Surface Exchange Study (CASES-99) site in southeast Kansas. This instability promoted a train of billows which appeared to be in different stages of evolution. Data were collected by sonic anemometers and a high-frequency thermocouple array distributed on a 60 m tower at the site, and a high resolution Doppler lidar (HRDL), situated close to the tower. Data from these instruments were used to analyze the characteristics of the instability and the billow event. The instability occurred in a layer characterized by a minimum Richardson number Ri0.13, and where an inflection in the background wind profile was also documented. The billows, which translated over the site for approximately 30 min, were approximately L320 m in length and, after billow evolution they were contained in a layer depth H30 m. Their maximum amplitude, determined by HRDL data, occurred at a height of 56 m. Billow overturns, responsible for mixing of heat and momentum, and high-frequency intermittent turbulence produce kurtosis values above the Gaussian value of 3, particularly in the lower part of the active layer.     

Stratigraphic and structural expression of the lateral growth of thrust fault-propagation folds: results and implications from kinematic modelling

In order to better understand the development of thrust fault‐related folds, a 3D forward numerical model has been developed to investigate the effects that lateral slip distribution and propagation rate have on the fold geometry of pre‐ and syn‐tectonic strata. We consider a fault‐propagation fold in which the fault propagates upwards from a basal decollement and along‐strike normal to transport direction. Over a 1 Ma runtime, the fault reaches a maximum length of 10 km and accumulates a maximum displacement of 1 km. Deformation ahead of the propagating fault tip is modelled using trishear kinematics while backlimb deformation is modelled using kink‐band migration. The applicability of two different lateral slip distributions, namely linear‐taper and block‐taper, are firstly tested using a constant lateral propagation rate. A block‐taper slip distribution replicates the geometry of natural fold‐thrusts better and is then used to test the sensitivity of thrust‐fold morphology to varied propagation rates in a set of fault‐propagation folds that have identical final displacement to length (D_max/L_max) ratios. Two stratigraphic settings are considered: a model in which background sedimentation rates are high and no topography develops, and a model in which a topographic high develops above the growing fold and local erosion, transport and deposition occur. If the lateral propagation rate is rapid (or geologically instantaneous), the fault tips quickly become pinned as the fault reaches its maximum lateral extent (10 km), after which displacement accumulates. In both stratigraphic settings, this leads to strike‐parallel rotation of the syn‐tectonic strata near the fault tips; high sedimentation rates relative to rates of uplift result in along‐strike thinning over the structural high, while low sedimentation rates result in pinchout against it. In contrast, slower lateral propagation rates (i.e. up to one order of magnitude greater than slip rate) lead to the development of along‐strike growth triangles when sedimentation rates are high, whereas when sedimentation rates are low, offflap geometries result. Overall we find that the most rapid lateral propagation rates produce the most realistic geometries. In both settings, time‐equivalent units display both nongrowth and growth stratal geometries along‐strike and the transition from growth to nongrowth has the potential to delineate the time of fault/fold growth at a given location. This work highlights the importance of lateral fault‐propagation and fault tip pinning on fault and fold growth in three dimensions and the complex syn‐tectonic geometries that can result.