Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model

Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean–atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993–2010 and model reanalysis over 1981–2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981–2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.     

The “Boscobel Landslip” of October 1st, 1901—the largest historic landslide in Barbados,West Indies

Barbados is a small Caribbean island located on the crest of an accretionary prism about 125 km east of the Lesser Antilles volcanic island arc. The oldest strata, Eocene sandstones and shales, are overlain by Oligocene–Miocene chalks and marls, in turn overlain by Pleistocene reef and lagoonal limestones that cover about 85 % of the island. The Eocene sediments, which crop out in the Scotland District of Barbados, are prone to soil creep and landslides covering tens to hundreds of hectares. The largest historic landslide, the “Boscobel Landslip,” occurred on 01 October 1901. We used nineteenth-century and more modern topographic and geologic maps, air photographs, and various archival and petrophysical data, to supplement reconnaissance of the landslide in the field. We identified about ten million cubic meters of the displaced material of the landslide, as well as the meteorological and geological conditions that contributed to the Boscobel Landslip. Similar landslides would pose a presently unquantified hazard to inhabitation and future development in the Scotland District.     

An assessment of geologic sequestration potential in the panhandle of Florida USA

One alternative to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions is to store the emissions in underground geologic sequestration repositories. The efficacy of this approach has been favorably evaluated by numerous authors over the last 15 years. This paper discusses an assessment of the overall feasibility of storing emissions in three different repositories in the Florida panhandle located in the Southeastern United States. The feasibility assessment evaluates both saline aquifers and oil reservoirs located in the panhandle region. The overall feasibility is driven by the available geologic sequestration capacity, the transportation cost to deliver emissions to a respective repository, and other engineering and regulatory issues. The geologic sequestration capacity is generally controlled by the so-called storage efficiency, a variable dependent on the site-specific geology, reservoir conditions, and the injected fluid characteristics. For this paper, storage efficiency for saline repositories was assessed in more detail using numerical modeling. Based on the work completed, the 3 repositories studied have at least 4.55 gigatonnes of capacity to sequester CO₂.     

Environmental change detection in the central part of Iraq using remote sensing data and GIS

This study aims to assess the potential of several ancillary input data for the improvement of unsupervised land cover change detection in arid environments. The study area is located in Central Iraq where desertification has been observed. We develop a new scheme based on known robust indices. We employ Landsat (multispectral scanner, thematic mapper, and enhanced thematic mapper) satellite data acquired in 1976, 1990, and 2002. We use the Normalized Deferential Vegetation Index, Normalized Differential Water Index (NDWI), Salinity Index (SI), and Eolian Mapping Index. Two new equations were applied for the SI and the NDWI indices. Validation was performed using ground truth data collected in 16 days. We show that such an approach allows a robust and low-cost alternative for preliminary and large-scale assessments. This study shows that desertification has increased in the study area since 1990.     

Post-peak,fluid-mediated modification of granulite facies zircon and monazite in the Trivandrum Block,southern India

The quarry at Kottavattom in the Trivandrum Block of southern India contains spectacular examples of fluid-assisted alteration of high-grade metamorphic rocks. Garnet-biotite gneiss has undergone a change in mineral assemblage to form submetre scale orthopyroxene-bearing patches, later retrogressed to form an amphibole-bearing lithology. These patches, often referred to as arrested or incipient charnockite, crosscut the original metamorphic foliation and are typically attributed to passage of a low aH₂O fluid through the rock. Whilst this conversion is recognised as a late stage process, little detailed chronological work exists to link it temporally to metamorphism in the region. Zircon and monazite analysed from Kottavattom not only record metamorphism in the Trivandrum Block but also show internal, lobate textures crosscutting the original zoning, consistent with fluid-aided coupled dissolution-reprecipitation during formation of the orthopyroxene-bearing patches. High-grade metamorphism at the quarry occurred between the formation of metamorphic monazite at ~585 Ma and the growth of metamorphic zircon at ~523 Ma. The fluid-assisted alteration of the garnet-biotite gneiss is poorly recorded by altered zircon with only minimal resetting of the U–Pb system, whereas monazite has in some cases undergone complete U–Pb resetting and records an age for fluid infiltration at ~495 Ma. The fluid event therefore places the formation of the altered patches at least 25 Myr after the zircon crystallisation in the garnet-biotite gneiss. The most likely fluid composition causing the modification and U–Pb resetting of zircon and monazite is locally derived hypersaline brine.     

A re-examination of petrogenesis and 40Ar/39Ar systematics in the Chain of Ponds K-feldspar: “diffusion domain” archetype versus polyphase hygrochronology

K-feldspar (Kfs) from the Chain of Ponds Pluton (CPP) is the archetypal reference material, upon which thermochronological modeling of Ar diffusion in discrete “domains” was founded. We re-examine the CPP Kfs using cathodoluminescence and back-scattered electron imaging, transmission electron microscopy, and electron probe microanalysis. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar stepwise heating experiments on different sieve fractions, and on handpicked and unpicked aliquots, are compared. Our results reproduce the staircase-shaped age spectrum and the Arrhenius trajectory of the literature sample, confirming that samples collected from the same locality have an identical Ar isotope record. Even the most pristine-looking Kfs from the CPP contains successive generations of secondary, metasomatic/retrograde mineral replacements that post-date magmatic crystallization. These chemically and chronologically distinct phases are responsible for its staircase-shaped age spectra, which are modified by handpicking. While genuine within-grain diffusion gradients are not ruled out by these data, this study demonstrates that the most important control on staircase-shaped age spectra is the simultaneous presence of heterochemical, diachronous post-magmatic mineral growth. At least five distinct mineral species were identified in the Kfs separate, three of which can be traced to external fluids interacting with the CPP in a chemically open system. Sieve fractions have size-shifted Arrhenius trajectories, negating the existence of the smallest “diffusion domains.” Heterochemical phases also play an important role in producing nonlinear trajectories. In vacuo degassing rates recovered from Arrhenius plots are neither related to true Fick’s Law diffusion nor to the staircase shape of the age spectra. The CPP Kfs used to define the “diffusion domain” model demonstrates the predominance of metasomatic alteration by hydrothermal fluids and recrystallization in establishing the natural Ar distribution among different coexisting phases that gives rise to the staircase-shaped age spectrum. Microbeam imaging of textures is as essential for ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar hygrochronology as it is for U–Pb geochronology.     

Early Devensian sediments and palaeovenvironmental evidence from the excavations at the Royal Oak Portal Paddington,West London,UK

This paper discusses the results of the investigation of Pleistocene sediments at the Royal Oak Portal (ROP) site on the new Crossrail scheme near Paddington Station, London. The site was sampled and recorded in May 2011 by archaeologists from Oxford Archaeology commissioned by Crossrail Ltd. The investigation revealed a sedimentary sequence associated with cool climate waterlain deposition towards the edge of the River Westbourne floodplain. During excavation an assemblage of around 100 identifiable large mammal bones was recovered, dating to the Late Pleistocene. The major concentration of bones, from bison and reindeer, was located and excavated from a shallow sequence of sediments. Analysis of the bones indicates that they represent a natural death assemblage, scavenged and subsequently disarticulated, transported by water, exposed and further dispersed and broken by trampling. The site is of regional and national importance because the assemblage derives from a well-constrained geological context, with associated dating evidence suggesting accumulation during the later parts of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 and continuing within MIS 4. The site is also of significance because it is one of a growing number of recently discovered sites away from the main fluvial archive for the British Middle and Upper Pleistocene. These sites have the potential to add significantly to our understanding of parts of the Pleistocene record that remain difficult to document through the investigation of the more active systems associated with major rivers such as the Thames, Severn or Trent.     

Scales and causes of heterogeneity in bars in a large multi‐channel river: Río Paraná, Argentina

To date, published studies of alluvial bar architecture in large rivers have been restricted mostly to case studies of individual bars and single locations. Relatively little is known about how the depositional processes and sedimentary architecture of kilometre‐scale bars vary within a multi‐kilometre reach or over several hundreds of kilometres downstream. This study presents Ground Penetrating Radar and core data from 11, kilometre‐scale bars from the Río Paraná, Argentina. The investigated bars are located between 30 km upstream and 540 km downstream of the Río Paraná – Río Paraguay confluence, where a significant volume of fine‐grained suspended sediment is introduced into the network. Bar‐scale cross‐stratified sets, with lengths and widths up to 600 m and thicknesses up to 12 m, enable the distinction of large river deposits from stacked deposits of smaller rivers, but are only present in half the surface area of the bars. Up to 90% of bar‐scale sets are found on top of finer‐grained ripple‐laminated bar‐trough deposits. Bar‐scale sets make up as much as 58% of the volume of the deposits in small, incipient mid‐channel bars, but this proportion decreases significantly with increasing age and size of the bars. Contrary to what might be expected, a significant proportion of the sedimentary structures found in the Río Paraná is similar in scale to those found in much smaller rivers. In other words, large river deposits are not always characterized by big structures that allow a simple interpretation of river scale. However, the large scale of the depositional units in big rivers causes small‐scale structures, such as ripple sets, to be grouped into thicker cosets, which indicate river scale even when no obvious large‐scale sets are present. The results also show that the composition of bars differs between the studied reaches upstream and downstream of the confluence with the Río Paraguay. Relative to other controls on downstream fining, the tributary input of fine‐grained suspended material from the Río Paraguay causes a marked change in the composition of the bar deposits. Compared to the upstream reaches, the sedimentary architecture of the downstream reaches in the top ca 5 m of mid‐channel bars shows: (i) an increase in the abundance and thickness (up to metre‐scale) of laterally extensive (hundreds of metres) fine‐grained layers; (ii) an increase in the percentage of deposits comprised of ripple sets (to >40% in the upper bar deposits); and (iii) an increase in bar‐trough deposits and a corresponding decrease in bar‐scale cross‐strata (<10%). The thalweg deposits of the Río Paraná are composed of dune sets, even directly downstream from the Río Paraguay where the upper channel deposits are dominantly fine‐grained. Thus, the change in sedimentary facies due to a tributary point‐source of fine‐grained sediment is primarily expressed in the composition of the upper bar deposits.     

Paragenesis and geochemistry of ore minerals in the epizonal gold deposits of the Yangshan gold belt,West Qinling,China

Six epizonal gold deposits in the 30-km-long Yangshan gold belt, Gansu Province are estimated to contain more than 300 t of gold at an average grade of 4.76 g/t and thus define one of China's largest gold resources. Detailed paragenetic studies have recognized five stages of sulfide mineral precipitation in the deposits of the belt. Syngenetic/diagenetic pyrite (Py₀) has a framboidal or colloform texture and is disseminated in the metasedimentary host rocks. Early hydrothermal pyrite (Py₁) in quartz veins is disseminated in metasedimentary rocks and dikes and also occurs as semi-massive pyrite aggregates or bedding-parallel pyrite bands in phyllite. The main ore stage pyrite (Py₂) commonly overgrows Py₁ and is typically associated with main ore stage arsenopyrite (Apy₂). Late ore stage pyrite (Py₃), arsenopyrite (Apy₃), and stibnite occur in quartz ± calcite veins or are disseminated in country rocks. Post-ore stage pyrite (Py₄) occurs in quartz ± calcite veins that cut all earlier formed mineralization. Electron probe microanalyses and laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry analyses reveal that different generations of sulfides have characteristic of major and trace element patterns, which can be used as a proxy for the distinct hydrothermal events. Syngenetic/diagenetic pyrite has high concentrations of As, Au, Bi, Co, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sb, and Zn. The Py₀ also retains a sedimentary Co/Ni ratio, which is distinct from hydrothermal ore-related pyrite. Early hydrothermal Py₁ has high contents of Ag, As, Au, Bi, Cu, Fe, Sb, and V, and it reflects elevated levels of these elements in the earliest mineralizing metamorphic fluids. The main ore stage Py₂ has a very high content of As (median value of 2.96 wt%) and Au (median value of 47.5 ppm) and slightly elevated Cu, but relatively low values for other trace elements. Arsenic in the main ore stage Py₂ occurs in solid solution. Late ore stage Py₃, formed coevally with stibnite, contains relatively high As (median value of 1.44 wt%), Au, Fe, Mn, Mo, Sb, and Zn and low Bi, Co, Ni, and Pb. The main ore stage Apy₂, compared to late ore stage arsenopyrite, is relatively enriched in As, whereas the later Apy₃ has high concentrations of S, Fe, and Sb, which is consistent with element patterns in associated main and late ore stage pyrite generations. Compared with pyrite from other stages, the post-ore stage Py₄ has relatively low concentrations of Fe and S, whereas As remains elevated (2.05～3.20 wt%), which could be interpreted by the substitution of As^? for S in the pyrite structure. These results suggest that syngenetic/diagenetic pyrite is the main metal source for the Yangshan gold deposits where such pyrite was metamorphosed at depth below presently exposed levels. The ore-forming elements were concentrated into the hydrothermal fluids during metamorphic devolatilization, and subsequently, during extensive fluid–rock interaction at shallower levels, these elements were precipitated via widespread sulfidation during the main ore stage.     

Climate input parameters for real-time online risk assessment

Risk assessment of natural hazards is often based on the actual or forecast weather situation. For estimating such climate-related risks, it is important to obtain weather data as frequently as possible. One commonly used climate interpolation routine is DAYMET, which in its current form is not able to update its database for periods of less than a year. In this paper, we report the construction of a new climate database with a standard interface and implement a framework for providing daily updated weather data for online daily weather interpolations across regions. We re-implement the interpolation routines from DAYMET to be compliant with the data handling in the new framework. We determine the optimal number of stations used in two possible interpolation routines, assess the error bounds using an independent validation dataset and compare the results with a previous validation study based on the original DAYMET implementation. Mean absolute errors are 1°C for maximum and minimum temperature, 28 mm for precipitation, 3.2 MJ/m² for solar radiation and 1 hPa for vapour pressure deficit, which is in the range of the original DAYMET routine. Finally, we provide an example application of the methodology and derive a fire danger index for a 1 km grid over Austria.