Mercury in the Southern Ocean

We present here the first mercury speciation study in the water column of the Southern Ocean, using a high-resolution south-to-north section (27 stations from 65.50°S to 44.00°S) with up to 15 depths (0-4440 m) between Antarctica and Tasmania (Australia) along the 140°E meridian. In addition, in order to explore the role of sea ice in Hg cycling, a study of mercury speciation in the “snow-sea ice-seawater” continuum was conducted at a coastal site, near the Australian Casey station (66.40°S; 101.14°E). In the open ocean waters, total Hg (Hg_T) concentrations varied from 0.63 to 2.76 pmol L⁻¹ with “transient-type” vertical profiles and a latitudinal distribution suggesting an atmospheric mercury source south of the Southern Polar Front (SPF) and a surface removal north of the Subantartic Front (SAF). Slightly higher mean Hg_T concentrations (1.35 ± 0.39 pmol L⁻¹) were measured in Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) compared to Antarctic Intermediate water (AAIW) (1.15 ± 0.22 pmol L⁻¹). Labile Hg (Hg_R) concentrations varied from 0.01 to 2.28 pmol L⁻¹, with a distribution showing that the Hg_T enrichment south of the SPF consisted mainly of Hg_R (67 ± 23%), whereas, in contrast, the percentage was half that in surface waters north of PFZ (33 ± 23%). Methylated mercury species (MeHg_T) concentrations ranged from 0.02 to 0.86 pmol L⁻¹. All vertical MeHg_T profiles exhibited roughly the same pattern, with low concentrations observed in the surface layer and increasing concentrations with depth up to an intermediate depth maximum. As for Hg_T, low mean MeHg_T concentrations were associated with AAIW, and higher ones with AABW. The maximum of MeHg_T concentration at each station was systematically observed within the oxygen minimum zone, with a statistically significant MeHg_Tvs Apparent Oxygen Utilization (AOU) relationship (p < 0.001). The proportion of Hg_T as methylated species was lower than 5% in the surface waters, around 50% in deep waters below 1000 m, reaching a maximum of 78% south of the SPF. At Casey coastal station Hg_T and Hg_R concentrations found in the “snow-sea ice-seawater” continuum were one order of magnitude higher than those measured in open ocean waters. The distribution of Hg_T there suggests an atmospheric Hg deposition with snow and a fractionation process during sea ice formation, which excludes Hg from the ice with a parallel Hg enrichment of brine, probably concurring with the Hg enrichment of AABW observed in the open ocean waters. Contrastingly, MeHg_T concentrations in the sea ice environment were in the same range as in the open ocean waters, remaining below 0.45 pmol L⁻¹. The MeHg_T vertical profile through the continuum suggests different sources, including atmosphere, seawater and methylation in basal ice. Whereas Hg_T concentrations in the water samples collected between the Antarctic continent and Tasmania are comparable to recent measurements made in the other parts of the World Ocean (e.g., Soerensen et al., 2010), the Hg species distribution suggests distinct features in the Southern Ocean Hg cycle: (i) a net atmospheric Hg deposition on surface water near the ice edge, (ii) the Hg enrichment in brine during sea ice formation, and (iii) a net methylation of Hg south of the SPF.     

CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation

Lagged ensembles from the operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal hindcast dataset are used to assess skill in forecasting interannual variability of the December–February Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find that a small but statistically significant portion of the interannual variance (>20 %) of the wintertime AO can be predicted at leads up to 2 months using lagged ensemble averages. As far as we are aware, this is the first study to demonstrate that an operational model has discernible skill in predicting AO variability on seasonal timescales. We find that the CFS forecast skill is slightly higher when a weighted ensemble is used that rewards forecast runs with the most accurate representations of October Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE), hinting that a stratospheric pathway linking October Eurasian SCE with the AO may be responsible for the model skill. However, further analysis reveals that the CFS is unable to capture many important aspects of this stratospheric mechanism. Model deficiencies identified include: (1) the CFS significantly underestimates the observed variance in October Eurasian SCE, (2) the CFS fails to translate surface pressure anomalies associated with SCE anomalies into vertically propagating waves, and (3) stratospheric AO patterns in the CFS fail to propagate downward through the tropopause to the surface. Thus, alternate boundary forcings are likely contributing to model skill. Improving model deficiencies identified in this study may lead to even more skillful predictions of wintertime AO variability in future versions of the CFS.     

Tree-Ring Analysis And Natural Hazard Chronologies: Minimum Sample Sizes And Index Values*

Tree-ring dating is employed to reconstruct chronologies of occurrence for a variety of natural hazards. The number of trees sampled varies greatly as does the minimum number of tree-ring responses. The number of trees to be sampled and an acceptable tree-ring response index should be dictated by the nature and geographical extent of the specific hazard under study. Repetitive sampling of different numbers of 30 avalanche-damaged trees showed significant differences in number of tree-ring responses over a 55-year-period. More sampling and use of a higher minimum response index allowed greater confidence in the chronology constructed from tree-rings and compared to historical records. Three geographic scales of analysis that can confound tree-ring responses are identified, and three guidelines for choosing sample size, given variations in processes, are suggested.     

On the effects of a sudden change in the albedo of the Earth

Acquisition by the upper atmosphere of some 10¹⁴ gm of cometary dust would have major implications on the Earth's climate. Pluvial activity would increase dramatically as temperature differences between sea and land widened. Global distribution of precipitation would be controlled by the density of the dust in the atmosphere; for a partially reflective blanket, a fraction of solar energy would still reach ground level creating new climatic zones. The totally undecomposed state of the interiors of Siberian Mammoths and the curious distribution, often uphill, of erratic boulders point to unbelievably sudden and severe conditions at the onset and possibly end of a glacial period. We suggest that a reflective blanket of particles could produce such conditions.     

Imagery Scale and Type for Natural Hazards Analysis: Classroom Examples Using Forest Fires and Snow Avalanches

Abstract

The type of remotely sensed imagery best suited for natural hazards analysis is largely dependent on the geographic size and discreteness of the hazard in question. Some forms of imagery that are appropriate for analyses of spatially fixed, relatively fine‐scale hazards are inappropriate for use with geographically widespread and transient hazards, and vice versa. In this paper we utilize one study area, Waterton‐Glacier International Peace Park (Canada and USA), and two natural hazard types (snow avalanches and forest fires), to illustrate how these remote sensing principles can be presented to students of natural hazards. We also address the issue of familiarity, or lack thereof, that students have with different images from a variety of platforms.     

An Assessment of Snow Avalanche Paths and Forest Dynamics Using Ikonos Satellite Data

Abstract

Ikonos panchromatic and multispectral satellite data were acquired in October 2000 and August 2002 for a test area along US Highway 2, the southern border of Glacier National Park (GNP), Montana, USA. The research goals were to map snow avalanche paths and to characterize vegetation patterns in selected paths for longitudinal (i.e., source, track, and runout) and transverse (i.e., inner, flanking, outer) zones as part of a study of forest dynamics and nutrient flux from paths into terrestrial and aquatic systems. In some valleys, as much as 50 percent of the area may be covered by snow avalanche paths, and as such, serve as an important carbon source servicing terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Snow avalanches move woody debris down‐slope by snapping, tipping, trimming, and excavating branches, limbs, and trees, and by injuring and scaring trees that remain in‐place. Further, snow avalanches alter the vegetation structure on paths through secondary plant succession of disturbed areas. Contrast and edge enhancements, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the Tasseled Cap greenness and wetness transformations were used to examine vegetation patterns in selected paths that were affected by high magnitude snow avalanches during the winter of 2001-2002. Using image transects organized in longitudinal patterns in paths and in forests, and transects arranged in transverse patterns across the sampled paths, the Tasseled Cap transforms (and NDVI values) were plotted and assessed. Preliminary results suggest that NDVI patterns are different for paths and forests, and Tasseled Cap greenness and wetness patterns are different for longitudinal and transverse zones that describe the morphology of snow avalanche paths. The differentiation of paths from the background forest and the characterization of paths by morphometric zones through remote sensing has implications for mapping forest disturbances and dynamics over time and for large geographic areas and for modeling nutrient flux in terrestrial and aquatic systems.     

SNOW-AVALANCHE HAZARDS IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK,MONTANA: METEOROLOGIC AND CLIMATOLOGIC ASPECTS

Hazardous snow avalanches in Glacier National Park, Montana, are associated with a variety of meteorologic conditions: heavy snow; heavy snows followed by a rise in air temperature to above freezing; a rise in air temperature to above freezing, without precipitation; and rain in association with above-freezing air temperatures. Years of major, widespread avalanching may be recognized by examination of historical information and tree-ring data. Avalanche types include slab avalanches, wet snow avalanches, and dry loose snow avalanches. February is the peak avalanche month. Intraannual seasonalities of avalanche trigger mechanisms and type of avalanche are related. The presence of sun crusts in some cases provides unstable stratigraphic planes in the snowpack over which freshly deposited snow may glide. Destructive windblasts also occur in association with some avalanches. Insufficient data from east of the Continental Divide precluded a comparison of avalanche type and trigger mechanisms from the western and eastern portions of Glacier National Park. The general avalanche climate is more similar to that reported from the southern Canadian cordillera than to continental locations such as the mountains of Colorado. [Key words: Snow avalanches; avalanche trigger mechanisms; avalanche types; avalanche seasonality; Glacier National Park, Montana; northern Rocky Mountains; hazard planning.]     

PEDESTRIAN- AND BICYCLE-INDUCED PATH EROSION ON A UNIVERSITY CAMPUS

Soil denudation studies in urban environments are infrequent in the geomorphic literature. Here we describe the amount of soil erosion associated with pedestrian and bicycle pathways on an American university campus. The amount of soil denudation from thirty pedestrian/bicycle paths on the campus of the University of North Carolina was determined by morphometric measurements. Volumes denuded ranged from nearly 20 m³ to <0.2 m³ per site. Highest amounts were located at sites adjacent to a football stadium. Three types of paths were recognized, based on their utilization: paths running adjacent to existing sidewalks; paths cutting across lawns and through shrubbery from one sidewalk to another; and those formed by bicycles in order to avoid going up or down steps.