Climate and climate change in western canada as simulated by the Canadian regional climate model

Abstract

A þrst climate simulation performed with the novel Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) is presented. The CRCM is based on fully elastic non‐hydrostatic þeld equations, which are solved with an efþcient semi‐implicit semi‐Lagrangian (SISL) marching algorithm, and on the parametrization package of subgrid‐scale physical effects of the second‐generation Canadian Global Climate Model (GCMII). Two 5‐year integrations of the CRCM nested with GCMII simulated data as lateral boundary conditions are made for conditions corresponding to current and doubled CO₂ scenarios. For these simulations the CRCM used a grid size of 45 km on a polar‐stereographic projection, 20 scaled‐height levels and a time step of 15 min; the nesting GCMII has a spectral truncation of T32, 10 hybrid‐pressure levels and a time step of 20 min. These simulations serve to document: (1) the suitability of the SISL numerical scheme for regional climate modelling, (2) the use of GCMII physics at much higher resolution than in the nesting model, (3) the ability of the CRCM to add realistic regional‐scale climate information to global model simulations, and (4) the climate of the CRCM compared to that of GCMII under two greenhouse gases (GHG) scenarios.     

The Batu Hijau porphyry copper-gold deposit, Sumbawa Island, Indonesia

The Batu Hijau porphyry Cu---Au deposit lies in southwest Sumbawa Island, Indonesia. It is a world-class porphyry Cu deposit in an island are setting, and is typical of this deposit type in most features, including igneous association, morphology, hydrothermal alteration and mineralisation style.The region was not previously recognised as a porphyry Cu province; disseminated Cu sulphides were first recognised in float samples in southwest Sumbawa in 1987. Associated stream sediment sampling identified a broad area of anomalous Au and Cu in an area of greater than 5 km² around Batu Hijau, including 169 ppb Au in BLEG samples and 580 ppm Cu in stream silts 1 km from the deposit. Mineralisation in bedrock at surface contains > 0.1 wt % Cu and > 0.1 ppm Au over an area of 0.6 km × 1.2 km, including a zone 300 m × 900 m containing > 0.3 wt % Cu. Areas with elevated Mo (> 30 ppm) form a distinctive annulus around this Cu-rich zone.Batu Hijau mineralisation is hosted in a tonalite intrusive complex, and diorite and metavolcanic wallrocks. There are no post-mineralisation igneous intrusions or breccia pipes within the deposit. The main tonalite intrusion forms a stock in the centre of the deposit, where it generally displays intensely pervasive potassic (biotite with magnetite-quartz) alteration and hosts most of the higher grade mineralisation. Younger tonalite dykes intruding the centre of this stock are generally less altered and mineralised than the older tonalite.The core zone of potassic alteration grades outward into extensive propylitic alteration (chlorite-epidote), with both variably overprinted by widespread fracture controlled intermediate argillic alteration (sericite-chlorite), and minor phyllic (sericite-pyrite) and sodic (albite) alteration. Argillic (sericite-kaolinite) and advanced argillic (kaolinite-alunite-pyrophyllite) assemblages occur near surface.Copper and Au grades within the orebody show a positive correlation with quartz stockwork intensity, although disseminated Cu sulphides are also common. Chalcopyrite and bornite are the principle hypogenal minerals, with minor chalcocite. Oxidation extends to a depth of 5 m to 85 m below surface across the deposit, and is underlain by weak supergene mineralisation. Drill testing of the deposit down to 650 m below surface reveals a single cylindrical to conical orebody of 334 million tonnes grading 0.8 wt % Cu and 0.69 gm per tonne Au; the depth extent of mineralisation is unknown.     

The Influences of NAO and the Hudson Bay sea-ice on the climate of eastern Canada

Sea-ice cover over the Hudson Bay (HB) exhibits large variability in the freeze-up season normally starting in November. Its influence on the climate over eastern Canada has been studied with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) in three steps. First, a 30-year continuous simulation from 1970 to 1999 was performed as a control run to evaluate the simulated climate variability over eastern Canada, in particularly variability associated with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Then, 50 additional 1 month experiments were performed with modified sea-surface conditions prescribed over the HB. These integrations allowed us to quantify the contribution of HB sea-ice anomalies versus large scale NAO atmospheric variability (as defined by prescribed lateral boundary conditions) in inducing climate variability over eastern Canada. Results show that the NAO is the dominant factor controlling climate variability over eastern Canada. The contribution of HB sea-ice anomalies is significant only in the immediate coastal region. Under the influence of different phases of NAO, HB sea-ice anomalies do co-vary with temperature and precipitation anomalies downstream of the HB over eastern Canada. The ultimate cause of this co-variability is NAO variability which forces variability in both HB sea-ice cover as well as temperature/precipitation over eastern Canada.     

Incorporating space,time, and magnitude measures in a network characterization of earthquake events

We investigate the structural properties of a spatio-temporal network of earthquake events that incorporates magnitude information between the connected events. The network creates temporally directed links from an origin event towards a later event if it breaks the record closest distance from the origin among all the events in the catalog so far. Additionally, the links are conditionally classified based on the magnitude difference between connected events: “up” (“down”) connections point from a weaker (stronger) to a stronger (weaker) event. Using earthquake records from the Philippines from 1973 to 2012 and southern California from 1982 to 2012, we observe that the out-degree distributions show slight deviations from the corresponding Poisson distribution of the same mean. The space and time separations of connected earthquakes both show power-law regimes, suggesting spatio-temporal (self-)organization. More importantly, the conditional distributions of “up” and “down” connections in space, time, and network structure point to a higher likelihood of a stronger event triggering a nearby weaker event for the first few connections, as in the case of aftershocks. The results are captured by a sandpile-based model where a small but finite probability of preferentially targeting the most susceptible grid site is introduced. Our analysis, coupled with the discrete model analog, provides a quantitative picture of the spatio-temporal and magnitude organization of seismicity beyond just the successive events. The technique may be extended to further characterize similar long-period earthquake records to yield a more complete picture of the underlying processes involved in seismicity.     

Astronomical Plate Archives and Binary Blazars Studies

There are about 3 million astronomical photographic plates around the globe, representing an important data source for various aspects of astrophysics. The main advantage is the large time coverage of 100 years or even more. Recent digitization efforts, together with the development of dedicated software, enables for the first time, effective data mining and data analyses by powerful computers with these archives. Examples of blazars proposed and/or investigated on the astronomical plates are presented and discussed.     

Tall building vibration control using a TM‐MR damper assembly: Experimental results and implementation

This paper summarizes the relevant results of the design, construction, testing, and implementation of a nominal 120 kN magnetorheological damper developed to control a free‐plan tall building in Santiago, Chile, equipped with two 160‐ton tuned masses. Cyclic as well as hybrid simulation tests were performed on the prototype damper. Global building responses using measured MR properties showed good correlation with analytical estimations. Also, a proposed physical controller for the MR damper was validated through hybrid and building pull‐back tests. Its performance is essentially equivalent to that of an LQR controller, but the information needed in its implementation is considerably less. Pull‐back tests of 10 cm amplitude were performed on one mass along the flexible edge of the building and its response controlled using the passive and controlled modes of the MR damper. The MR damper was capable of controlling the TM displacements very effectively, as well as the simulated building response for different ground motions and harmonic excitation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discretizing the fracture-matrix interface to simulate solute transport

This article examines the required spatial discretization perpendicular to the fracture-matrix interface (FMI) for numerical simulation of solute transport in discretely fractured porous media. The discrete-fracture, finite-element model HydroGeoSphere ( Therrien et al. 2005 ) and a discrete-fracture implementation of MT3DMS ( Zheng 1990 ) were used to model solute transport in a single fracture, and the results were compared to the analytical solution of Tang et al. (1981) . To match analytical results on the relatively short timescales simulated in this study, very fine grid spacing perpendicular to the FMI of the scale of the fracture aperture is necessary if advection and/or dispersion in the fracture is high compared to diffusion in the matrix. The requirement of such extremely fine spatial discretization has not been previously reported in the literature. In cases of high matrix diffusion, matching the analytical results is achieved with larger grid spacing at the FMI. Cases where matrix diffusion is lower can employ a larger grid multiplier moving away from the FMI. The very fine spatial discretization identified in this study for cases of low matrix diffusion may limit the applicability of numerical discrete-fracture models in such cases.     

Meadow fragmentation and reproductive output of the SE Asian seagrass Enhalus acoroides

Flower and fruit production of the abundant, tall, long-lived, dioecious, surface-pollinating seagrass species Enhalus acoroides (L.) Royle were estimated at seven sites in the reef flats off Bolinao (NW Luzon, The Philippines) featuring different fragmentation of the seagrass meadows. Fragmentation of the seagrass meadow was quantified as cover of E. acoroides and all seagrass species present in 20×20 m plots. E. acoroides and overall seagrass cover were correlated positively. The proportion of female flowers of E. acoroides that developed a fruit increased sharply as overall seagrass cover was around 50%. Apparent sex ratio bore no relationship with overall seagrass cover. This threshold-type of relationship suggests that fragmentation of seagrass meadows can have a major effect on the reproductive output of this species. A possible mechanism underlying these results would be a non-linear increase of the efficiency of trapping the surface-dispersed pollen with increasing seagrass canopy density. This provides the first evidence based on real data that fragmentation can affect the population dynamics of seagrass species.