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171.
K. E. Preston D. J. Fish H. K. Roscoe R. L. Jones 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1998,30(1):163-172
A new method for retrieving the vertical profile of NO2 from ground-based measurements is applied to four months of measurements made at Aberdeen (57°N) during part of SESAME from November 1994 to April 1995. The retrieval method is shown to be an invaluable tool both for deriving the true NO2 vertical column and for removing the tropospheric contribution to the vertical column. This dramatically reduces the effects of tropospheric pollution in the observations and enables a more appropriate comparison with stratospheric 3-D model results. The comparison confirms the accuracy of the model's transport and its reactive nitrogen photochemistry, although there are some detailed discrepancies. 相似文献
172.
Comparison of the use of alternative UKCP09 products for modelling the impacts of climate change on flood frequency 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
Climate change could have significant impacts on hydrology. This paper uses UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) products to assess the impacts on flood frequency in Britain. The main UKCP09 product comprises conditional probabilistic information on changes in a number of climate variables on a 25?×?25?km grid across the UK (the Sampled Data change factors). A second product is a Weather Generator which produces time-series of current weather variables and future weather variables based on the Sampled Data and consistent with the change factors. A third product comprises time-series from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble which were used to downscale Global Climate Models (GCMs) on which the projections are based and whose outputs were used in the production of the Sampled Data. This paper compares the use of Sampled Data change factors, Weather Generator time-series, RCM-derived change factors and RCM time-series. Each is used to provide hydrological model inputs for nine catchments, to assess impacts for the 2080s (A1B emissions). The results show relatively good agreement between methods for most catchments, with the four median values for a catchment generally being within 10% of each other. There are also some clear differences, with the use of time-series generally leading to a greater uncertainty range than the use of change factors because the latter do not allow for the effects of, or changes in, natural variability. Also, the use of Weather Generator time-series leads to much greater impacts than the other methods for one catchment. The results suggest that climate impact studies should not necessarily rely on the application of just one UKCP09 product, as each has different strengths and weaknesses. 相似文献
173.
K.R. Briffa P.D. Jones R.B. Vogel F.H. Schweingruber M.G.L. Baillie S.G. Shiyatov E.A. Vaganov 《Climatic change》1999,43(1):151-168
We present a selective review of tree-ring variability and inferred climate changes in Europe during the 16th century. The dendroclimatological evidence is assessed within the context of the last 500 years and some interpretational problems are discussed. The tree-ring evidence is compared with various non-dendroclimatic evidence. The body of evidence shows that a large region of mid and northern Europe experienced a sharp cooling at around 1570/80 that, at least in the north, marked a shift towards a prolonged period of cool conditions. This region had its southern boundary in the Alps and there is little evidence for a major cooling in southern Europe. 相似文献
174.
Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
L. O. Mearns S. Sain L. R. Leung M. S. Bukovsky S. McGinnis S. Biner D. Caya R. W. Arritt W. Gutowski E. Takle M. Snyder R. G. Jones A. M. B. Nunes S. Tucker D. Herzmann L. McDaniel L. Sloan 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):965-975
We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs. 相似文献
175.
Benjamin D. Santer Karl E. Taylor Tom M. L. Wigley Joyce E. Penner Philip D. Jones Ulrich Cubasch 《Climate Dynamics》1995,12(2):77-100
It has been hypothesized recently that regional-scale cooling caused by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be partially obscuring
a warming signal associated with changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we use results from model experiments in which
sulfate and carbon dioxide have been varied individually and in combination in order to test this hypothesis. We use centered
[R (t)] and uncentered [C (t)] pattern similarity statistics to compare observed time-evolving surface temperature change patterns with the model-predicted
equilibrium signal patterns. We show that in most cases, the C (t) statistic reduces to a measure of observed global-mean temperature changes, and is of limited use in attributing observed
climate changes to a specific causal mechanism. We therefore focus on R (t), which is a more useful statistic for discriminating between forcing mechanisms with different pattern signatures but similar
rates of global mean change. Our results indicate that over the last 50 years, the summer (JJA) and fall (SON) observed patterns
of near-surface temperature change show increasing similarity to the model-simulated response to combined sulfate aerosol/CO2 forcing. At least some of this increasing spatial congruence occurs in areas where the real world has cooled. To assess the
significance of the most recent trends in R (t) and C (t), we use data from multi-century control integrations performed with two different coupled atmosphere-ocean models, which
provide information on the statistical behavior of 'unforced' trends in the pattern correlation statistics. For the combined
sulfate aerosol/CO2 experiment, the 50-year R (t) trends for the JJA and SON signals are highly significant. Results are robust in that they do not depend on the choice of
control run used to estimate natural variability noise properties. The R (t) trends for the CO2-only signal are not significant in any season. C (t) trends for signals from both the CO2-only and combined forcing experiments are highly significant in all seasons and for all trend lengths (except for trends
over the last 10 years), indicating large global-mean changes relative to the two natural variability estimates used here.
The caveats regarding the signals and natural variability noise which form the basis of this study are numerous. Nevertheless,
we have provided first evidence that both the largest-scale (global-mean) and smaller-scale (spatial anomalies about the global
mean) components of a combined CO2/anthropogenic sulfate aerosol signal are identifiable in the observed near-surface air temperature data. If the coupled-model
noise estimates used here are realistic, we can be highly confident that the anthropogenic signal that we have identified
is distinctly different from internally generated natural variability noise. The fact that we have been able to detect the
detailed spatial signature in response to combined CO2 and sulfate aerosol forcing, but not in response to CO2 forcing alone, suggests that some of the regional-scale background noise (against which we were trying to detect a CO2-only signal) is in fact part of the signal of a sulfate aerosol effect on climate. The large effect of sulfate aerosols found
in this study demonstrates the importance of their inclusion in experiments designed to simulate past and future climate change.
Received: 10 November 1994 / Accepted: 19 July 1995 相似文献
176.
R. N. Colvile T. W. Choularton J. N. Cape B. J. Bandy K. N. Bower R. A. Burgess T. J. Davies G. J. Dollard M. W. Gallagher K. J. Hargreaves B. M. R. Jones S. A. Penkett R. L. Storeton-West 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1996,24(3):211-239
Four case studies are described, from a three-site field experiment in October/November 1991 using the Great Dun Fell flow-through reactor hill cap cloud in rural Northern England. Measurements of total odd-nitrogen nitrogen oxides (NO
y
) made on either side of the hill, before and after the air flowed through the cloud, showed that 10 to 50% of the NO
y
, called NO
z
, was neither NO nor NO2. This NO
z
failed to exhibit a diurnal variation and was often higher after passage through cloud than before. No evidence of conversion of NO
z
to NO3
- in cloud was found. A simple box model of gas-phase chemistry in air before it reached the cloud, including scavenging of NO3 and N2O5 by aerosol of surface area proportional to the NO2 mixing ratio, shows that NO3 and N2O5 may build up in the boundary layer by night only if stable stratification insulates the air from emissions of NO. This may explain the lack of evidence for N2O5 forming NO3
- in cloud under well-mixed conditions in 1991, in contrast with observations under stably stratified conditions during previous experiments when evidence of N2O5 was found. Inside the cloud, some variations in the calculated total atmospheric loading of HNO2 and the cloud liquid water content were related to each other. Also, indications of conversion of NO
x
to NO
z
were found. To explain these observations, scavenging of NO
x
and HNO2 by cloud droplets and/or aqueous-phase oxidation of NO2
- by nitrate radicals are considered. When cloud acidity was being produced by aqueous-phase oxidation of NO
x
or SO2, NO3
- which had entered the cloud as aerosol particles was liberated as HNO3 vapour. When no aqueous-phase production of acidity was occurring, the reverse, conversion of scavenged HNO3 to particulate NO3
-, was observed. 相似文献
177.
178.
Evaluation of the North Atlantic Oscillation as simulated by a coupled climate model 总被引:11,自引:1,他引:11
T. J. Osborn K. R. Briffa S. F. B. Tett P. D. Jones R. M. Trigo 《Climate Dynamics》1999,15(9):685-702
The realism of the Hadley Centre’s coupled climate model (HadCM2) is evaluated in terms of its simulation of the winter North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a major natural mode of the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere that is currently the subject of considerable
scientific interest. During 1400 y of a control integration with present-day radiative forcing levels, HadCM2 exhibits a realistic
NAO associated with spatial patterns of sea level pressure, synoptic activity, temperature and precipitation anomalies that
are very similar to those observed. Spatially, the main model deficiency is that the simulated NAO has a teleconnection with
the North Pacific that is stronger than observed. In a temporal sense the simulation is compatible with the observations if
the recent observed trend (from low values in the 1960s to high values in the early 1990s) in the winter NAO index (the pressure
difference between Gibraltar and Iceland) is ignored. This recent trend is, however, outside the range of variability simulated
by the control integration of HadCM2, implying that either the model is deficient or that external forcing is responsible
for the variation. It is shown, by analysing two ensembles, each of four HadCM2 integrations that were forced with historic
and possible future changes in greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol concentrations, that a small part of the recent observed
variation may be a result of anthropogenic forcing. If so, then the HadCM2 experiments indicate that the anthropogenic effect
should reverse early next century, weakening the winter pressure gradient between Gibraltar and Iceland. Even combining this
anthropogenic forcing and internal variability cannot explain all of the recent observed variations, indicating either some
model deficiency or that some other external forcing is partly responsible.
Received: 20 August 1998 / Accepted: 12 May 1999 相似文献
179.
To begin exploring the underlying mechanisms that couple vegetation to cloud formation processes, we derive the lifting condensation
level (LCL) to estimate cumulus cloud base height. Using a fully coupled land–ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (HadCM3LC),
we investigate Amazonian forest feedbacks on cloud formation over three geological periods; modern-day (a.d. 1970–1990), the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 kya), and under a future climate scenario (IS92a; a.d. 2070–2090). Results indicate that for both past and future climate scenarios, LCL is higher relative to modern-day. Statistical
analyses indicate that the 800 m increase in LCL during the LGM is related primarily to the drier atmosphere promoted by lower
tropical sea surface temperatures. In contrast, the predicted 1,000 m increase in LCL in the future scenario is the result
of a large increase in surface temperature and reduced vegetation cover. 相似文献
180.
PD Jones 《Climate Dynamics》1987,1(2):63-75
Reconstructions of monthly mean sea-level grid-point pressure from station pressure data over the Arctic region using an objective technique have revealed two serious errors in the gridded data. First, all gridded data (from the U.S. Historical Weather Map series) for the Arctic Ocean area away from the North Atlantic sector appears to be between 4 and 6 mb too high before about 1931. The semi-permanent Arctic high produced in the early historical map series was the result of a lack of basic station data, and the belief amongst many North American meteorologists of the 1920s and 1930s of the existence of a polar or glacial anticyclone. The second error affects only north-western North America for the years 1899–1909. Here pressure is again too high compared with reconstructed data. The cause of this error is not immediately apparent, but is probably the result of an erroneous correction to sea level for stations in the region. Both errors seriously affect the homogeneity of the gridded Arctic series. The objective scheme used to reveal the errors, can also be used to derive correction factors for the gridded data prior to 1931. 相似文献