Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change

Investigating the relationships between climate extremes and crop yield can help us understand how unfavourable climatic conditions affect crop production. In this study, two statistical models, multiple linear regression and random forest, were used to identify rainfall extremes indices affecting wheat yield in three different regions of the New South Wales wheat belt. The results show that the random forest model explained 41–67% of the year-to-year yield variation, whereas the multiple linear regression model explained 34–58%. In the two models, 3-month timescale standardized precipitation index of Jun.–Aug. (SPI_JJA), Sep.–Nov. (SPI_SON), and consecutive dry days (CDDs) were identified as the three most important indices which can explain yield variability for most of the wheat belt. Our results indicated that the inter-annual variability of rainfall in winter and spring was largely responsible for wheat yield variation, and pre-growing season rainfall played a secondary role. Frequent shortages of rainfall posed a greater threat to crop growth than excessive rainfall in eastern Australia. We concluded that the comparison between multiple linear regression and machine learning algorithm proposed in the present study would be useful to provide robust prediction of yields and new insights of the effects of various rainfall extremes, when suitable climate and yield datasets are available.     

Multi-Index Soil Moisture Estimation from Satellite Earth Observations: Comparative Evaluation of the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) and the Improved TVDI (iTVDI)

Soil moisture estimation from satellite earth observation has emerged effectively advantageous due to the high temporal resolution, spatial resolution, coverage, and processing convenience it affords. In this paper, we present a study carried out to estimate soil moisture level at every location within Enugu State Nigeria from satellite earth observation. Comparative analysis of multiple indices for soil moisture estimation was carried out with a view to evaluating the robustness, correlation, appropriateness and accuracy of the indices in estimating the spatial distribution of soil moisture level in Enugu State. Results were correlated and validated with In-Situ soil moisture observations from multi-sample points. To achieve this, the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), based on digital elevation data, the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) and an improved TVDI (iTVDI) incorporating air temperature and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) were calculated from ASTER global DEM and Landsat images. Possible dependencies of the indices on land cover type, topography, and precipitation were explored. In-Situ soil moisture data were used to validate the derived indices. The results showed that there was a positive significant relationship between iTVDI versus TVDI (R = 0.53, P value < 0.05), while in iTVDI versus TWI (R = 0.00, P value > 0.05) and TVDI versus TWI (R = ?0.01, P value > 0.05) no significant relationship existed. There was a strong relationship between iTVDI and topography, land cover type, and precipitation than other indices (TVDI, TWI). In situ measured soil moisture values showed negative significant relationship with TVDI (R = ?0.52, P value < 0.05) and iTVDI (R = ?0.63, P value < 0.05) but not with TWI (R = ?0.10, P value > 0.05). The iTVDI outperformed the other two index; having a stronger relationship with topography, precipitation, land cover classes and soil moisture. It concludes that although iTVDI outperformed other indices (TVDI, TWI) in soil moisture estimation, the decision of which index to apply is dependent on available data, the intent of usage and spatial scale.     

Modelling the effect of land management interventions and climate change on sediment loads in the Manawatū–Whanganui region

ABSTRACT

SedNetNZ is used to model the effect of erosion control undertaken under the Sustainable Land Use Initiative (SLUI) and predict the effect of climate change on sediment load in the Manawatū–Whanganui region. Sediment load in 2004 is estimated at 13.4?Mt?yr^?1; by 2018, ≈5000?km² of land had farm plans implemented and annual sediment load reduced by 6.2% of the 2004 load. If SLUI stops at the 2018 level of implementation, by 2038 it is predicted to achieve a 15.7% reduction in annual sediment load. If SLUI continues to implement farm plans, 7949?km² of land will be treated by 2043 and annual sediment load could be reduced by a further 14.7%. Climate change is predicted to substantially increase sediment loads. By 2043 annual sediment load for the region is predicted to increase, compared to 2004, by between 8.3 and 23.7%. However, this can largely be offset by SLUI works. By 2090 an annual sediment load increase of between 53 and 224% due to climate change is predicted. The results suggest climate warming may dominate changes in sediment load in the future.     

Lateglacial and Holocene environmental history of the central Kola region,northwestern Russia revealed by a sediment succession from Lake Imandra

Bolshaya Imandra, the northern sub-basin of Lake Imandra, was investigated by a hydro-acoustic survey followed by sediment coring down to the acoustic basement. The sediment record was analysed by a combined physical, biogeochemical, sedimentological, granulometrical and micropalaeontological approach to reconstruct the regional climatic and environmental history. Chronological control was obtained by ¹⁴C dating, ¹³⁷Cs, and Hg markers as well as pollen stratigraphy and revealed that the sediment succession offers the first continuous record spanning the Lateglacial and Holocene for this lake. Following the deglaciation prior to c. 13 200 cal. a BP, the lake's sub-basin initially was occupied by a glacifluvial river system, before a proglacial lake with glaciolacustrine sedimentation established. Rather mild climate, a sparse vegetation cover and successive retreat of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS) from the lake catchment characterized the Bølling/Allerød interstadial, lasting until 12 710 cal. a BP. During the subsequent Younger Dryas chronozone, until 11 550 cal. a BP, climate cooling led to a decrease in vegetation cover and a re-advance of the SIS. The SIS disappeared from the catchment at the Holocene transition, but small glaciers persisted in the mountains at the eastern lake shore. During the Early Holocene, until 8400 cal. a BP, sedimentation changed from glaciolacustrine to lacustrine and rising temperatures caused the spread of thermophilous vegetation. The Middle Holocene, until 3700 cal. a BP, comprises the regional Holocene Thermal Maximum (8000–4600 cal. a BP) with relatively stable temperatures, denser vegetation cover and absence of mountain glaciers. Reoccurrence of mountain glaciers during the Late Holocene, until 30 cal. a BP, presumably results from a slight cooling and increased humidity. Since c. 30 cal. a BP Lake Imandra has been strongly influenced by human impact, originating in industrial and mining activities. Our results are in overall agreement with vegetation and climate reconstructions in the Kola region.     

Influences of upwelling and downwelling winds on red tide bloom dynamics in Monterey Bay,California

It has recently been shown that inner shelf waters of NE Monterey Bay, California function as an “extreme bloom incubator”, frequently developing dense “red tide” blooms that can rapidly spread. Located within the California Current upwelling system, this open bay is strongly influenced by oceanographic dynamics resulting from cycles of upwelling favorable winds and their relaxation and/or reversal. Different wind forcing causes influx of different water types that originate outside the bay: cold nutrient-rich waters during upwelling and warm nutrient-poor waters during relaxation. In this study, we examine how the bay's bloom incubation area can interact with highly variable circulation to cause red tide spreading, dispersal and retention. This examination of processes is supported by satellite, airborne and in situ observations of a major dinoflagellate bloom during August and September of 2004. Remote sensing of high spatial, temporal and spectral resolution shows that the bloom originated in the NE bay, where it was highly concentrated in a narrow band along a thermal front. Upwelling circulation rapidly spread part of the bloom, mixing cool waters of an upwelling filament with warm bloom source waters as they spread. Vertical migration of the dinoflagellate populations was mapped by autonomous underwater vehicle surveys through the spreading bloom. Following bloom expansion, a two-day wind reversal forced intrusion of warm offshore waters that dispersed much of the bloom. Upwelling winds then resumed, and the bloom was further dispersed by an influx of cold water. Throughout these oceanographic responses to changing winds, an intense bloom persisted in sheltered waters of the NE bay, where extreme blooms are most frequent and intense. Microscopic examination of surface phytoplankton samples from the central bay showed that spreading of the bloom from the NE bay and mixing with regional water masses resulted in significantly increased abundance of dinoflagellates and decreased abundance of diatoms. Similar dinoflagellate bloom incubation sites are indicated in other areas of the California Current system and other coastal upwelling systems. Through frequent bloom development and along-coast transports, relatively small incubation sites may significantly influence larger regions of the coastal marine ecosystems in which they reside.     

The Role of Mid-Latitude Pacific Cyclones in the Winter Precipitation of California*

The characteristics of the mid-latitude Pacific cyclones that produce precipitation over California are investigated statistically to determine their role in governing precipitation receipt. From all cyclones occurring over the Pacific Ocean from December through March and between 1965–1990 inclusive, we identify a subset of cyclones likely to produce precipitation over California. The characteristics analyzed are track, frequency, duration, speed, central pressure, and proximity. These are related to monthly precipitation for the entire period and are also used to explain the difference in precipitation received during the earlier (wet) and latter (dry) halves of the 1980s. Results indicate that the winter cyclones responsible for precipitation over California originate in the southeast quadrant of the region influenced by the Aleutian Low and decay south of the Gulf of Alaska. The extent of cyclonic activity over the east Pacific Ocean near California diminished during the dry period. There were fewer cyclones, they were significantly weaker, and they traveled along a more meridional track during the dry period.     

MASS BALANCE OF POLAR ICE FROM LONG WAVELENGTH FEATURES OF THE EARTH'S GRAVITATIONAL FIELD

We have used satellite solutions to the low degree zonal harmonics of the Earth's gravitational potential, and rates of surface accumulation to partially constrain, by means of repeated forward solution, the time rates of thickness change over the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets (dTA and dTG respectively). In addition to the observed zonal coefficients j2 through j5 we impose only one other constraint: That dTA and dTG are proportional to surface accumulation. The lagged response of the Earth to secular changes in ice thickness spanning recent time periods (up to 2000 years before present) and the late Pleistocene is accounted for by means of two viscoelastic rebound models. The sea level contributions from the ice sheets, calculated from dTA and dTG, lower mantle viscosity, and the start time of present-day thickness change are all variables subject to the constraints. For a given set of post glacial rebound inputs, a family of solutions that have similar characteristics and that agree well with observation are obtained from the large number of forward solutions. The off axis position of the Greenland ice sheet makes its contribution to the low degree zonal coefficients less sensitive to the spatial details of the mass balance than to the overall sea level contribution. dTG is therefore modeled as surface mass balance offset by a uniform and constant mass loss. Though dTA varies widely with choices of input parameters, the combined sea level contribution from both ice sheets is reasonably well constrained by the gravity coefficients, and is predicted to range from -0.9 to +1.6 mm yr-1. The sign of the slope of the low degree zonal coefficients versus sea level contribution for Greenland is positive, but for Antarctica, the sign of the slope is positive for even degree and negative for odd degree harmonics. By using this property of the zonal coefficients, it is possible to determine the individual sea level contributions for Greenland and Antarctica. They vary from -0.6 to +0.3 mm yr-1 for the Greenland Ice Sheet, and from -0.3 to +1.3 mm yr-1 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet.     

On the evolution of central stars of planetary nebulae

The evolution of nuclei of planetary nebulae has been calculated from the end of the ejection stage that produces the nebulae to the white, dwarf stage. The structure of the central star is in agreement with the general picture of Finzi (1973) about the mass ejection from the progenitors of planetary nebulae. It has been found that in order to obtain evolutionary track consistent with the Harman-Seaton track (O'Dell, 1968) one has to assume that the masses of the nuclei stars are less than 0.7M . The calculated evolutionary time scale of the central stars of planetary nebulae is 2×10⁴ yr. This time scale is negatively correlated with the stellar mass: the heavier the stellar mass, the shorter the evolutionary time scale.     

The Homogeneous Finite-Difference Formulation of the P-SV-Wave Equation of Motion

Two different approaches to finite-difference modeling of the elastodynamic equations have been used: the heterogeneous and the homogeneous. In the heterogeneous approach, boundary conditions at interfaces are treated implicitly; in the homogeneous, they are explicitly discretized. We present a homogeneous finite-difference scheme for the 2-D P-SV-wave case. This scheme represents a generalization of earlier such schemes, being able to model media with arbitrary non-uniformities, provided only that all interfaces are aligned with the numerical grid. We perform a detailed comparison of the generalized homogeneous scheme with the analogous heterogeneous scheme, and show the two schemes to be identical for media with a spatially constynt Poisson's ratio. For media where Poisson's ratio is spatially varying, the schemes differ by terms first-order in the spatial step size. However, a comparison of the numerical results produced by the two schemes shows that the resulting differences are negligible for a wide range of values of the Poisson's ratio contrast.