Analysis of Jupiter’s Oval BA: A streamlined approach

We present a novel method of constructing streamlines to derive wind speeds within jovian vortices and demonstrate its application to Oval BA for 2001 pre-reddened Cassini flyby data, 2007 post-reddened New Horizons flyby data, and 1998 Galileo data of precursor Oval DE. Our method, while automated, attempts to combine the advantages of both automated and manual cloud tracking methods. The southern maximum wind speed of Oval BA does not show significant changes between these data sets to within our measurement uncertainty. The northern maximum does appear to have increased in strength during this time interval, which likely correlates with the oval’s return to a symmetric shape. We demonstrate how the use of closed streamlines can provide measurements of vorticity averaged over the encircled area with no a priori assumptions concerning oval shape. We find increased averaged interior vorticity between pre- and post-reddened Oval BA, with the precursor Oval DE occupying a middle value of vorticity between these two.     

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.     

Accuracy and efficiency of time integration methods for 1D diffusive wave equation

The diffusive wave approximation of the Saint-Venant equations is commonly used in hydrological models to describe surface flow processes. Numerous numerical approaches can be used to solve this highly nonlinear equation. Nonlinear time integration schemes—also called methods of lines (MOL)—were proven very efficient to solve other nonlinear problems in geosciences but were never considered to deal with surface flow modeling with the diffusive wave equation. In this paper, we study the relative performance of different time and space integration schemes by comparing the results obtained with classical approaches and with nonlinear time integration approaches. The results show that (i) the integration method with a higher order in space shows high accuracy regarding an integrated indicator such as the global mass balance error but is less accurate regarding local indicators, and (ii) nonlinear time integration techniques perform better than classical ones. Overall, it seems that integration techniques combining nonlinear time integration and a low spatial order need to be considered when developing hydrological modeling tools owing to their simplicity of implementation and very good performance.     

Trends in northern midlatitude atmospheric wave power from 1950 to 2099

In a warming climate, atmospheric wave activity and associated weather patterns may change, although conflicting results have been reported on this topic. Additionally, atmospheric wave changes in a future climate have mainly focused on waves of a specified spatial scale, rather than a particular spatiotemporal scale. Here, changes in the variability of Rossby waves of multiple spatiotemporal scales are analyzed using the wavenumber-frequency power spectrum, a tool commonly applied to analyze atmospheric equatorial waves. Daily 500 hPa geopotential height data over 40°–60°N from historical (1950–2005) and future (2006–2099) simulations from 20 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the RCP8.5 scenario were analyzed. When compared to the historical period, the late 21st century climate projections showed a decline in spectral power for both eastward and westward propagating waves with wavenumbers greater than 8 that spanned over all frequencies in all seasons, but an increase in mean power for eastward propagating waves with wavenumbers 1–7 over all frequencies was shown in winter and spring. This increase in power was accompanied by increased variance, i.e., an increased meridional extent of 500 hPa ridges and troughs, and was the result of increases in the mean number of high amplitude events and duration of activity within this wave band. These results indicate that large-scale (~ 104 km) eastward propagating weather systems may intensify with higher amplitudes for ridges and troughs, while short-scale (102–103 km) weather systems may decrease in their intensity due to reduced variability in the late 21st century under the high emissions scenario. Potential mechanisms for these changes are discussed, including enhanced Arctic warming and midlatitude-tropical interactions.     

Accretion onto neutron star: The X-ray spectra and luminosity

The equations of stationary fluid motion are solved for the case of spherical accretion onto non-magnetic, non-rotating neutron star. The X-ray radiation flux is calculated in two different ways: An approximate solution of the moment equations coupled to the gas fluid equations and numerical Monte-Carlo simulation of the photon random walk. We show that the spectrum of the X-ray radiation in the outer parts of the inflowing envelope has a characteristic power-law behaviour. We suggest that some of the properties of the X-ray sources in the globular clusters can be explained with this model.     

Characterizing the zonally asymmetric component of the SH circulation

Much research concerning the Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonally asymmetric circulation has focused on the Pacific-South American mode (PSA) or the major zonal waves. However, these large-scale decompositions may mask important local variability. In this paper the month-to-month variability explained by the zonal waves 1 and 3 is examined, and an alternative representation of the SH circulation is presented based on two quasi-stationary anticyclones in the sub-Antarctic western hemisphere. These anticyclones are related to the zonal waves, but features of their variability are masked by the zonal wave decomposition; in particular, the anticyclones’ strengths are not positively covariant. They are also compared with the leading Principal Components of the SH atmosphere. We show that they capture variance independent of the Southern Annular Mode. Additionally, they explain a generally greater fraction of the variability than the PSA, and in a manner that also includes information regarding spatial variability. These results have implications for analysis of the atmospheric-forcing of western Antarctic climate.     

TNOs are Cool: A Survey of the Transneptunian Region

Over one thousand objects have so far been discovered orbiting beyond Neptune. These trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) represent the primitive remnants of the planetesimal disk from which the planets formed and are perhaps analogous to the unseen dust parent-bodies in debris disks observed around other main-sequence stars. The dynamical and physical properties of these bodies provide unique and important constraints on formation and evolution models of the Solar System. While the dynamical architecture in this region (also known as the Kuiper Belt) is becoming relatively clear, the physical properties of the objects are still largely unexplored. In particular, fundamental parameters such as size, albedo, density and thermal properties are difficult to measure. Measurements of thermal emission, which peaks at far-IR wavelengths, offer the best means available to determine the physical properties. While Spitzer has provided some results, notably revealing a large albedo diversity in this population, the increased sensitivity of Herschel and its superior wavelength coverage should permit profound advances in the field. Within our accepted project we propose to perform radiometric measurements of 139 objects, including 25 known multiple systems. When combined with measurements of the dust population beyond Neptune (e.g. from the New Horizons mission to Pluto), our results will provide a benchmark for understanding the Solar debris disk, and extra-solar ones as well.     

Tectonometamorphic evolution of the Atbashi high‐P units (Kyrgyz CAOB,Tien Shan): Implications for the closure of the Turkestan Ocean and continental subduction–exhumation of the South Kazakh continental margin

The South Tien Shan (STS) belt results from the last collision event in the western Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB). Understanding its formation is of prime importance in the general framework of the CAOB. The Atbashi Range preserves high‐P (HP) rocks along the STS suture, but still, its global metamorphic evolution remains poorly constrained. Several HP units have been identified: (a) a HP tectonic mélange including boudins of mafic eclogites in a sedimentary matrix, (b) a large (>100 km long) high‐P metasedimentary unit (HPMU) and (c) a lower blueschist facies accretionary prism. Raman Spectroscopy on carbonaceous material combined with phengite and chlorite multiequilibria and isochemical phase diagram modelling indicates that the HPMU recorded homogeneous P–T conditions of 23–25 kbar and 560–570°C along the whole unit. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating on phengite from the HPMU ranges between 328 and 319 Ma at regional scale. These ages are interpreted as (re‐) crystallization ages of phengite during T_max conditions at a pressure range of 20–25 kbar. Thermobarometry on samples from the HP tectonic mélange provides similar metamorphic peak conditions. Thermobarometry on the blueschist to lower greenschist facies accretionary prism indicates that it underwent P–T conditions of 5–6 kbar and 290–340°C, highlighting a 17–20 kbar pressure gap between the HPMU‐tectonic mélange units and the accretionary prism. Comparison with available geochronological data suggests a very short time span between the prograde path (340 Ma), HP metamorphic peak (330 Ma), the T_max (328–319 Ma) and the final exhumation of the HPMU (303–295 Ma). Extrusion of the HPMU, accommodated by a basal thrust and an upper detachment, was driven by buoyant forces from 70–75 km up to 60 km depth, which directly followed continental subduction and detachment of the HPMU. At crustal depths, extrusion was controlled by collisional tectonics up to shallow levels. Lithological homogeneity of the HPMU and its continental‐derived character from the North Tien Shan suggest this unit corresponds to the hyper‐extended continental margin of the Kazakh continent, subducted southward below the north continental active margin of the Tarim craton. Integration of the available geological data allows us to propose a general geodynamic scenario for Tien Shan during the Carboniferous with a combination of (a) N‐dipping subduction below the Kazakh margin of Middle Tien Shan until 390–340 Ma and (b) S‐dipping subduction of remaining Turkestan marginal basins between 340 and 320 Ma.     

Holocene hydrological variability of Lake Ladoga,northwest Russia,as inferred from diatom oxygen isotopes

This article presents a new comprehensive assessment of the Holocene hydrological variability of Lake Ladoga, northwest Russia. The reconstruction is based on oxygen isotopes of lacustrine diatom silica (δ¹⁸O_diatom) preserved in sediment core Co 1309, and is complemented by a diatom assemblage analysis and a survey of modern isotope hydrology. The data indicate that Lake Ladoga has existed as a freshwater reservoir since at least 10.8 cal. ka BP. The δ¹⁸O_diatom values range from +29.8 to +35.0‰, and relatively higher δ¹⁸O_diatom values around +34.7‰ between c. 7.1 and 5.7 cal. ka BP are considered to reflect the Holocene Thermal Maximum. A continuous depletion in δ¹⁸O_diatom since c. 6.1 cal. ka BP accelerates after c. 4 cal. ka BP, indicating Middle to Late Holocene cooling that culminates during the interval 0.8–0.2 cal. ka BP, corresponding to the Little Ice Age. Lake‐level rises result in lower δ¹⁸O_diatom values, whereas lower lake levels cause higher δ¹⁸O_diatom values. The diatom isotope record gives an indication for a rather early opening of the Neva River outflow at c. 4.4–4.0 cal. ka BP. Generally, overall high δ¹⁸O_diatom values around +33.5‰ characterize a persistent evaporative lake system throughout the Holocene. As the Lake Ladoga δ¹⁸O_diatom record is roughly in line with the 60°N summer insolation, a linkage to broader‐scale climate change is likely.