Spatial Prediction of Landslide Hazard Using Logistic Regression and ROC Analysis

An empirical modeling of road related and non‐road related landslide hazard for a large geographical area using logistic regression in tandem with signal detection theory is presented. This modeling was developed using geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing data, and was implemented on the Clearwater National Forest in central Idaho. The approach is based on explicit and quantitative environmental correlations between observed landslide occurrences, climate, parent material, and environmental attributes while the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are used as a measure of performance of a predictive rule. The modeling results suggest that development of two independent models for road related and non‐road related landslide hazard was necessary because spatial prediction and predictor variables were different for these models. The probabilistic models of landslide potential may be used as a decision support tool in forest planning involving the maintenance, obliteration or development of new forest roads in steep mountainous terrain.     

Historical trends in Chesapeake Bay dissolved oxygen based on benthic foraminifera from sediment cores

Environmentally sensitive benthic foraminifera (protists) from Chesapeake Bay were used as bioindicators to estimate the timing and degree of changes in dissolved oxygen (DO) over the past five centuries. Living foraminifers from 19 surface samples and fossil assemblages from 11 sediment cores dated by²¹⁰Pb,¹³⁷Cs,¹⁴C, and pollen stratigraphy were analyzed from the tidal portions of the Patuxent, Potomac, and Choptank Rivers and the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay.Ammonia parkinsoniana, a facultative anaerobe tolerant of periodic anoxic conditions, comprises an average of 74% of modern Chesapeake foraminiferal assemblages (DO-0.47 and 1.72 ml l⁻¹) compared to 0% to 15% of assemblages collected in the 1960s. Paleoecological analyses show thatA. parkinsoniana was absent prior to the late 17th century, increased to 10–25% relative frequency between approximately 1670–1720 and 1810–1900, and became the dominant (60–90%) benthic formaniferal species in channel environments beginning in the early 1970s. Since the 1970s, deformed tests ofA. parkinsoniana occur in all cores (10–20% ofAmmonia), suggesting unprecedented stressful benthic conditions. These cores indicate that prior to the late 17th century, there was limited oxygen depletion. During the past 200 years, decadal scale variability in oxygen depletion has occurred, as dysoxic (DO=0.1–1.0 ml l⁻¹), perhaps short-term anoxic (DO<0.1 ml l⁻¹) conditions developed. The most extensive (spatially and temporally) anoxic conditions were reached during the 1970s. Over decadal timescales, DO variability seems to be linked closely to climatological factors influencing river discharge; the unprecedented anoxia since the early 1970s is attributed mainly to high freshwater flow and to an increase in nutrient concentrations from the watershed.     

Forensic isotope analysis to refine a hydrologic conceptual model

Water resources in the arid southwestern United States are frequently the subject of conflict from competing private and public interests. Legal remedies may remove impasses, but the technical analysis of the problem often determines the future success of legal solutions. In Owens Valley, California, the source of water for the Los Angeles Aqueduct (LAA) is flow diverted from the Owens River and its tributaries and ground water from valley aquifers. Future management of ground water delivered to the LAA needs technical support regarding quantity available, interconnection of shallow and confined aquifers, impact on local springs, and rate of recharge. Ground water flow models and ground water composition are tools already in use, but these have large uncertainty for local interpretations. This study conducted targeted sampling of springs and wells to evaluate the hydrologic system to corroborate conceptual and numerical models. The effort included measurement of intrinsic isotopic composition at key locations in the aquifers. The stable isotopic data of boron (delta(11)B), sulfur (delta(34)S), oxygen (delta(18)O), hydrogen (delta D), and tritium ((3)H) supported by basic chemical data provided rules for characterizing the upper and the lower aquifer system, confirmed the interpretation of ground water flow near faults and flow barriers, and detected hydraulic connections between the LAA and the perennial springs at key locations along the unlined reach of the LAA. This study exemplifies the use of forensic isotopic approaches as independent checks on the consistency of interpretations of conceptual models of a ground water system and the numerical hydrologic simulations.     

Radar Detection of Near-Earth Asteroids 2062 Aten, 2101 Adonis, 3103 Eger, 4544 Xanthus, and 1992 QN

We describe Doppler-only radar observations of near-Earth asteroids 2062 Aten, 2101 Adonis, 3103 Eger, 4544 Xanthus, and 1992 QN that were obtained at Arecibo and Goldstone between 1984 and 1996. Estimates of the echo spectral bandwidths, radar cross sections, and circular polarization ratios of these objects constrain their pole-on breadths, radar albedos, surface roughnesses, taxonomic classes, rotation periods, and pole directions. Aten's bandwidth is consistent with its radiometrically determined diameter of 0.9 km. Adonis has a rotation periodP≤ 11 h and an effective diameter (the diameter of a sphere with the same projected area as the asteroid) between 0.3 and 0.8 km. The radar properties of Adonis suggest it is not a member of taxonomic classes C or M. The effective diameter of Xanthus is between 0.4 and 2.2 km with a rotation periodP≤ 20 h. Echoes from 1992 QN constrain the asteroid's pole-on breadth to be ≥0.6 km and probably exclude it from the C and M taxonomic classes. The strongest Eger echoes are asymmetric with bandwidths that set lower bounds of 1.5 and 2.3 km on the minimum and maximum breadths of the asteroid's pole-on silhouette. If Eger is modeled as a 1.5 × 2.3 km biaxial ellipsoid, then its effective diameter for an equatorial view is 1.5 km end-on and 1.9 km broadside or pole-on, implying a geometric albedo smaller than published values but still consistent with a classification as an E-type object. The near-unity circular polarization ratios of Adonis, Eger, and 1992 QN are among the highest values measured for any asteroid or comet and suggest extreme near-surface roughness at centimeter to meter scales.     

Petrology, geochemistry, and age of low-Ti mare-basalt meteorite Northeast Africa 003-A: A possible member of the Apollo 15 mare basaltic suite

Northeast Africa 003 (NEA 003) is a lunar meteorite found as a two paired stones (6 and 118 g) in Libya, 2000 and 2001. The main portion (∼75 vol%) of the 118 g meteorite, used for this study, (NEA 003-A) consists of mare-basalt and a smaller adjacent portion (∼25 vol%) is a basaltic breccia (NEA 003-B). NEA 003-A has a coarse-grained magmatic texture consisting mainly of olivine, pyroxene and plagioclase. The late-stage mineral association is composed mainly of elongated plagioclase, ilmenite, troilite, fayalite, Si-K-rich glass, apatite, and a rare SiO₂ phase. Other accessory minerals include ulvöspinel, chromite, and trace Fe-Ni metal. Olivine and pyroxene contain shock-induced fractures, and plagioclase is completely converted into maskelynite.The Fe/Mn values of the whole rock, olivines and pyroxenes, and the bulk-rock oxygen isotopic composition provide evidence for the lunar origin of NEA 003-A meteorite. This is further supported by the presence of Fe-Ni metal and the anhydrous mineral association.NEA 003-A is geochemically and petrographically distinct from previously described mare-basalt meteorites and is not paired with any of them. The petrography and major element composition of NEA 003-A is similar to the composition of low-Ti olivine mare basalts from Apollo 12 and olivine-normative basalts from Apollo 15. The NEA 003-A meteorite shows obvious geochemical similarities in trace elements contents with Apollo 15 olivine-normative basalts and could represent a yet unknown geochemically primitive member of the olivine-normative basalt series. The meteorite is depleted in rare earth elements (REE) and incompatible trace elements indicating a primitive character of the parental magma. The bulk-rock chemical composition demonstrates that the parent melt of NEA 003-A was not contaminated with KREEP components as a result of magma mixing or assimilation processes. Results of crystallization modelling and low minimum cooling rate estimates (∼0.07 °C/h) suggest that the parent melt of NEA 003-A crystallized in the lower part of a lava flow containing cumulate olivine (∼10%) and was probably derived from more primitive picritic magma by fractional crystallization processes.Sm-Nd dating yields an age of 3.09 ± 0.06 Ga which corresponds to the period of lower Eratosthenian lunar volcanic activity, and the near-chondritic ε_Nd value of −0.4 ± 0.3 indicates that the meteorite could be derived from a slightly enriched mantle source similar to the Apollo 15 green glasses. Ar-Ar step release results are inconsistent with Sm-Nd ages suggesting that NEA 003-A was exposed to one or more impact events. The most extensive event took place at 1.8 Ga and the shock intensity was likely between 28 and 45 GPa. The absence of solar Ar suggests that NEA 003-A has not been directly exposed at the lunar surface but the cosmic ray exposure age of 209 ± 6 Ma suggests that NEA 003-A resided in the upper regolith for part of its history.     

Supernova remnants, planetary nebulae and the distance to NGC 4214

We present narrow band, continuum subtracted Hα, [S ii], Hβ, [O iii] and [O ii] data taken with the Wide Field Camera 3 on the Hubble Space Telescope in the nearby dwarf starburst galaxy NGC 4214. From these images, we identify seventeen new planetary nebula candidates, and seven supernova remnant candidates. We use the observed emission line luminosity function of the planetary nebulae to establish a new velocity-independent distance to NGC 4214. We conclude that the PNLF technique gives a reddening independent distance to NGC 4214 of 3.19±0.36 Mpc, and that our current best-estimate of the distance to this galaxy ids 2.98±0.13 Mpc.     

Radar observations and a physical model of Asteroid 4660 Nereus, a prime space mission target

Near-Earth Asteroid 4660 Nereus has been identified as a potential spacecraft target since its 1982 discovery because of the low delta-V required for a spacecraft rendezvous. However, surprisingly little is known about its physical characteristics. Here we report Arecibo (S-band, 2380-MHz, 13-cm) and Goldstone (X-band, 8560-MHz, 3.5-cm) radar observations of Nereus during its 2002 close approach. Analysis of an extensive dataset of delay-Doppler images and continuous wave (CW) spectra yields a model that resembles an ellipsoid with principal axis dimensions X=510±20 m, Y=330±20 m and . The pole direction is approximately located at ecliptic pole longitude and latitude of λ=+25°, β=+80° with the uncertainty radius of 10°. Our modeling yields a refined rotation period of 15.16±0.04 h. Nereus has a circular polarization (SC/OC) ratio of 0.74±0.08, which implies substantial near-surface centimeter-to-decimeter scale roughness. Dynamical analysis of our model suggests that YORP alteration of the rotation period may become evident within a few years. Nereus has two stable synchronous orbits where natural material may remain in orbit, while most asteroids observed to date do not have such stable synchronous orbits. We also find that spacecraft orbits about Nereus are feasible.     

Compositional and lithological diversity among brecciated lunar meteorites of intermediate iron concentration

Abstract— We present new compositional data for 30 lunar stones representing about 19 meteorites. Most have iron concentrations intermediate to those of the numerous feldspathic lunar meteorites (3–7% FeO) and the basaltic lunar meteorites (17–23% FeO). All but one are polymict breccias. Some, as implied by their intermediate composition, are mainly mixtures of brecciated anorthosite and mare basalt, with low concentrations of incompatible elements such as Sm (1–3 μg/g). These breccias likely originate from points on the Moon where mare basalt has mixed with material of the FHT (Feldspathic Highlands Terrane). Others, however, are not anorthosite‐basalt mixtures. Three (17–75 μ/g Sm) consist mainly of nonmare mafic material from the nearside PKT (Procellarum KREEP Terrane) and a few are ternary mixtures of material from the FHT, PKT, and maria. Some contain mafic, nonmare lithologies like anorthositic norites, norites, gabbronorites, and troctolite. These breccias are largely unlike breccias of the Apollo collection in that they are poor in Sm as well as highly feldspathic anorthosite such as that common at the Apollo 16 site. Several have high Th/Sm compared to Apollo breccias. Dhofar 961, which is olivine gabbronoritic and moderately rich in Sm, has lower Eu/Sm than Apollo samples of similar Sm concentration. This difference indicates that the carrier of rare earth elements is not KREEP, as known from the Apollo missions. On the basis of our present knowledge from remote sensing, among lunar meteorites Dhofar 961 is the one most likely to have originated from South Pole‐Aitken basin on the lunar far side.     

Monitoring and modeling dissolved oxygen dynamics through continuous longitudinal sampling: a case study in Wen‐Rui Tang River,Wenzhou, China

Synoptic water sampling at a fixed site monitoring station provides only limited ‘snap‐shots’ of the complex water quality dynamics within a surface water system. However, water quality often changes rapidly in both spatial and temporal dimensions, especially in highly polluted urban rivers. In this study, we designed and applied a continuous longitudinal sampling technique to monitor the fine‐scale spatial changes of water quality conditions, assess water pollutant sources, and determine the assimilative capacity for biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) in an urban segment of the hypoxic Wen‐Rui Tang River in eastern China. The continuous longitudinal sampling was capable of collecting dissolved oxygen (DO) data every 5 s yielding a ~11 m sampling interval with a precision of ±0.1 mg L^?1. The Streeter and Phelps BOD‐DO model was used to calculate: (1) the oxygen consumption coefficient (K₁) required for calibration of water quality models, (2) BOD assimilative capacity, and (3) BOD source and load identification. In the 2014 m river segment sampled, the oxygen consumption coefficient (K₁) was 0.428 d^?1 (20°C), the total BOD discharge was 916 kg d^?1, and the BOD assimilative capacity was 382 kg d^?1 when the minimum DO level was set to 2 mg L^?1. In addition, the longitudinal analysis identified eight major drainage outlets (BOD point sources), which were verified by field observations. This new approach provides a simple, cost‐effective method of evaluating BOD‐DO dynamics over large spatial areas with rapidly changing water quality conditions, such as urban environments. It represents a major breakthrough in the development and application of water quality sampling techniques to obtain spatially distributed DO and BOD in real time. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Petrography and composition of Martian regolith breccia meteorite Northwest Africa 7475

The Northwest Africa (NWA) 7475 meteorite is one of the several stones of paired regolith breccias from Mars based on petrography, oxygen isotope, mineral compositions, and bulk rock compositions. Its inventory of lithic clasts is dominated by vitrophyre impact melts that were emplaced while they were still molten. Other clast types include crystallized impact melt rocks, evolved plutonic rocks, possible basalts, contact metamorphosed rocks, and siltstones. Impact spherules and vitrophyre shards record airborne transport, and accreted dust rims were sintered on most clasts, presumably during residence in an ejecta plume. The clast assemblage records at least three impact events, one that formed an impact melt sheet on Mars ≤4.4 Ga ago, a second that assembled NWA 7475 from impactites associated with the impact melt sheet at 1.7–1.4 Ga, and a third that launched NWA 7475 from Mars ~5 Ma ago. Mildly shocked pyroxene and plagioclase constrain shock metamorphic conditions during launch to >5 and <15 GPa. The mild postshock‐heating that resulted from these shock pressures would have been insufficient to sterilize this water‐bearing lithology during launch. Magnetite, maghemite, and pyrite are likely products of secondary alteration on Mars. Textural relationships suggest that calcium‐carbonate and goethite are probably of terrestrial origin, yet trace element chemistry indicates relatively low terrestrial alteration. Comparison of Mars Odyssey gamma‐ray spectrometer data with the Fe and Th abundances of NWA 7475 points to a provenance in the ancient southern highlands of Mars. Gratteri crater, with an age of ~5 Ma and an apparent diameter of 6.9 km, marks one possible launch site of NWA 7475.