Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment II: application of strong ground motion simulations

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA) has been introduced by Wiemer (Geophys Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000). The method, in its original form, utilizes attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity (PGV) exceedence probability. We substitute the attenuation relations together with their uncertainties by strong ground motion simulations for a set of scenarios. The main advantage of such an approach is that the simulations account for specific details of the aftershock source effects (faulting style, slip distribution, position of the nucleation point, etc.). Mean PGVs and their standard deviations are retrieved from the simulation results obtained by the new hybrid k-squared source model, and they are used for the PAHA analysis at a station under study. The model chosen for the testing purposes is inspired by the Izmit A25 aftershock (M _w  = 5.8) that occurred 26 days after the mainshock. The PAHA maps are compared with (1) those obtained by the use of attenuation relations and (2) the peak values of ten selected strong-motion recordings written by the aftershock at epicentral distances <50 km. We conclude that, although the overall hazard decay with increasing fault distance is similar, the PAHA maps obtained by the use of simulations exhibit remanent radiation pattern effect and prolongation in the strike direction due to the directivity effect pronounced for some of the scenarios. As regard the comparison with real data, we conclude that the PAHA maps agree with observed peak values due to appropriate attenuation model adopted in the analysis.     

Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals

Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular, the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε _max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether a physical basis for choosing ε _max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain direct physical constraints on ε _max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice of ε _max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε _max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore, the absolute truncation level implied by ε _max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε _max value impractical.     

Modelling peak accelerations from earthquakes

This paper deals with the prediction of peak horizontal accelerations with emphasis on seismic risk and insurance concerns. Non‐linear mixed effects models are used to analyse well‐known earthquake data and the consequences of mis‐specifying assumptions on the error term are quantified. A robust fit of the usual model, using recently developed robust weighted maximum likelihood estimators, is presented. Outlying data are automatically identified and subsequently investigated. A more appropriate model accounting for the extreme value nature of the responses, is also developed and implemented. The implication on acceleration predictions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A data‐based mechanistic modelling (DBM) approach to understanding dynamic sediment transmission through Wyresdale Park Reservoir,Lancashire, UK

This paper outlines the application of a new data‐based mechanistic (DBM) modelling methodology to the characterization of the sediment transmission dynamics in a small upland reservoir, Wyresdale Park, Lancashire. The DBM modelling strategy exploits advanced statistical procedures to infer the dynamic model structure and its associated parameters directly from the instrumented data, producing a parametrically efficient, continuous time, transfer function model which relates suspended sediment load at the reservoir inflow to the outflow at the event scale. The associated differential equation model parameters have physical attributes which can be interpreted in terms of sediment transmission processes and associated reservoir trap efficiency. Sedigraph analysis suggests that wind‐induced resuspension episodically supplies an additional load to the reservoir outlet. The stochastic nature of the DBM model makes it ideal for evaluating the effects of uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) for discharge and sediment transmission. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Magnetic properties of recent sediments in Lake Baikal, Siberia

Mineral magnetic measurements of six ²¹⁰Pb-dated surface cores from different basins of Lake Baikal, Siberia, show temporal records controlled by a range of internal and external processes. With the exception of sediments on the Academician Ridge, there is clear evidence for widespread reductive diagenesis effects on the ferrimagnetic component coupled with neo-formation of paramagnetic iron minerals. Greigite formation, bacterial magnetosome accumulation and turbidite layers may affect the properties of some sediment levels. Concentrations of canted antiferromagnetic minerals (eg. haematite) appear to increase from the 19th century onwards. These minerals are less affected by dissolution processes and probably represent detrital minerals delivered by catchment fluvial processes. The magnetic evidence for recent atmospheric pollution by fossil-fuel combustion processes is weak in all the cores, and supports the findings from studies of spherical carbonaceous particles (SCPs) and heavy metals that pollution is largely restricted to the southern basin. Correlations between recent sediments based on magnetic data may be insecure over long distances or between basins.     

Lake Winnipeg: geological setting and sediment seismostratigraphy

Lake Winnipeg, the seventh largest lake in North America, is located at the boundary between the Interior Plains and the Canadian Shield in Manitoba, Canada. Seismic profiles were obtained in Lake Winnipeg on two geoscientific cruises in 1994 and 1996. These data indicate the morphology of the bedrock surface. In most cases, a clear distinction between low relief Paleozoic carbonate rock and high relief Precambrian rock can be made. In northern Lake Winnipeg, the eastern limit of Paleozoic rock is clearly demarcated 30 km west of the previous estimate of its position. In southern Lake Winnipeg, all or most of the Paleozoic sequence terminates at a prominent buried escarpment in the centre of the lake. This indicates that Paleozoic rock on the eastern shore, known from drilling and outcrops, is an outlier. Major moraines are apparent as abrupt, large ridges having a chaotic internal reflection pattern. These include the Pearson Reef Moraine, the George Island Moraine and the offshore extension of The Pas Moraine. Little evidence for extensive or thick till was observed. Instead, fine-grained sediments deposited in glacial Lake Agassiz rest directly on bedrock over most of the lake basin. Hence an episode of erosion to bedrock was associated with glaciation and/or deglaciation. The Agassiz Sequence sediments are well-stratified, drape underlying relief and in some areas are over 100 m thick. In places, stratification in these sediments is disrupted, perhaps by dewatering. Evidence of erosion of Agassiz Sequence sediments by recent currents was observed. The contact between the Agassiz Sequence and the overlying Winnipeg Sequence sediments is a marked angular unconformity. The Agassiz Unconformity indicates up to 10 m of erosion in places. The low-relief character of this unconformity precludes subaerial erosion and the lack of till, moraines, or extensive deformation precludes glacial erosion. Waves appear to be the most likely erosional agent, either in waning Lake Agassiz or early Lake Winnipeg time. Winnipeg Sequence sediments, in places very thin, mantle most of the lakefloor. These sediments were deposited in the present Lake Winnipeg and are faintly stratified to massive and reach about 10 m in thickness in deep water. On the surface of the Winnipeg Sequence, vigorous, episodic currents are thought to contribute to the construction of flow-transverse sand waves as much as 6 m high in a deep, narrow constriction in the lake.