Mapping and clustering the adoption of carbon pricing policies: what polities price carbon and why?

Carbon pricing, including carbon taxes and emissions trading, has been adopted by different kinds of polities worldwide. Yet, beyond the increasing adoption over time, little is known about what polities – countries as well as sub- and supranational entities – adopt carbon pricing and why. This paper explores patterns of adoption (both implemented policies and those scheduled to be) through cluster analysis, with the purpose of investigating factors that could explain polities’ decisions to adopt carbon pricing. The study contributes empirically by studying carbon taxes and emissions trading together and by ordering the polities adopting carbon pricing into clusters. It also contributes theoretically, by exploring constellations of variables that drive the adoption of carbon pricing within individual clusters. We investigated 66 adopted policies of carbon pricing, which were divided into five clusters: early adopters, North-American subnational entities, Chinese pilot provinces, second-wave developed polities, and second-wave developing polities. The analysis indicates that the reasons for adopting carbon pricing have shifted over time. While international factors (climate commitments or influences from polities within the same region) are increasingly salient, domestic factors (including crises and income levels) were more important for the early adopters.

Key policy insights

• Carbon pricing has become a global mainstream policy instrument.

• Economic and fiscal crises provide windows of opportunity for promoting carbon pricing.

• The international climate regime can support the adoption of carbon pricing through mitigation commitments and international financial and technical assistance.

• Learning between polities from the same region is a useful tool for promoting carbon pricing.

• Carbon intensive economies tend to prefer emissions trading over carbon taxes.

     

A Bayesian model for lithology/fluid class prediction using a Markov mesh prior fitted from a training image

We consider a Bayesian model for inversion of observed amplitude variation with offset data into lithology/fluid classes, and study in particular how the choice of prior distribution for the lithology/fluid classes influences the inversion results. Two distinct prior distributions are considered, a simple manually specified Markov random field prior with a first-order neighbourhood and a Markov mesh model with a much larger neighbourhood estimated from a training image. They are chosen to model both horizontal connectivity and vertical thickness distribution of the lithology/fluid classes, and are compared on an offshore clastic oil reservoir in the North Sea. We combine both priors with the same linearized Gaussian likelihood function based on a convolved linearized Zoeppritz relation and estimate properties of the resulting two posterior distributions by simulating from these distributions with the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. The influence of the prior on the marginal posterior probabilities for the lithology/fluid classes is clearly observable, but modest. The importance of the prior on the connectivity properties in the posterior realizations, however, is much stronger. The larger neighbourhood of the Markov mesh prior enables it to identify and model connectivity and curvature much better than what can be done by the first-order neighbourhood Markov random field prior. As a result, we conclude that the posterior realizations based on the Markov mesh prior appear with much higher lateral connectivity, which is geologically plausible.     

Wave power statistics for individual waves

The paper provides a bivariate distribution of wave power and wave height, as well as a bivariate distribution of wave power and wave period; both bivariate distributions are for individual waves within a sea state. This is relevant for e.g. making assessments of wave power devices and their potential for converting energy from waves. The results can be applied to compare systematically the wave power potential for individual waves in a given sea state at different locations.     

Simulating the effects of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption using the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model

The climate changes that occured following the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Phillippines on 15 June 1991 have been simulated using the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model （AGCM）. The model was forced by a reconstructed spatial-time distribution of stratospheric aerosols intended for use in long climate simulations. Four statistical ensembles of the AGCM simulations with and without volcanic aerosols over a period of 5 years following the eruption have been made, and the calculated fields have been compared to available observations. The model is able to reproduce some of the observed features after the eruption, such as the winter warming pattern that was observed over the Northern Hemisphere （NH） during the following winters. This pattern was caused by an enhanced Equator-to-pole temperature gradient in the stratosphere that developed due to aerosol heating of the tropics. This in turn led to a strengthening of the polar vortex, which tends to modulate the planetary wave field in such a way that an anomalously positive Arctic Oscillation pattern is produced in the troposphere and at the surface, favouring warm conditions over the NH. During the summer, the model produced a more uniform cooling over the NH.     

Effects of a candidate antifouling compound (medetomidine) on pheromone induced mate search in the amphipod Corophium volutator

Environmental hazards associated with traditional, toxic antifouling coatings based on heavy metals calls for the development of alternative, environmentally acceptable antifouling compounds. Medetomidine ((±)-4-[1-(2,3-dimethylphenyl)ethyl]-1H-imidazole) is a candidate antifouling biocide which impedes settlement of barnacles in the nanomolar range. Prior to introducing novel biocides it is of great importance to consider potential effects on non-target organisms. This study is the first to investigate the effects of medetomidine on the amphipod Corophium volutator, specifically effects on male mate search behaviour. In a laboratory, Y-maze bioassay, C. volutator males were allowed to follow female pheromones after 24 h exposure to 0 (control), 0.01 and 0.1 μg mL⁻¹ medetomidine. We found that exposure to medetomidine at both concentrations significantly reduced pheromone induced mate search (by 42–71%), with fewer males crawling towards female odour. The results obtained indicate that medetomidine may impair the reproductive fitness of non-target crustaceans, an aspect that needs to be considered before further commercialisation.     

Sulphide formation from granulite‐facies S‐rich scapolite breakdown

Scapolite in granulite facies terranes provides a reservoir for volatile components such as sulphur and carbon in rocks that are otherwise considered ‘dry’. Formed at lower crustal conditions, the high‐S end‐member of scapolite, silvialite, is a major host of sulphur in granulites. Compositional and textural changes involving scapolite reveal that S‐rich scapolite becomes unstable during hydration and deformation at amphibolite facies conditions. Either scapolite changes composition, whereby SO₄^2? is exchanged for CO₃^2? or Cl^? in its structure, or scapolite is replaced by amphibole and/or epidote. Sulphur that is released from silvialite is deposited as sulphides within the original silvialite grain boundaries and can remain relatively immobile in undeformed anorthosites. However, increased sulphide mobility is evident in areas of increased deformation and hydration. Reactions involving S‐bearing scapolite not only have important implications for sulphide deposition and the S‐cycle, but may also influence conductivity variation in the lower crust.