ABSTRACTThe impacts of future climate change on the agricultural water supply capacities of irrigation facilities in the Geum River basin (9645.5 km2) of South Korea were investigated using an integrated modeling framework that included a water balance network model (MODSIM) and a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT). The discharges and baseflows from upland drainage areas were estimated using SWAT, and the predicted flow was used to feed agricultural reservoirs and multipurpose dams in subwatersheds. Using a split sampling method, we calibrated the daily streamflows and dam inflows at three locations using data from 6 years, including 3 years of calibration data (2005–2007) followed by 3 years of validation data (2008–2010). In the MODSIM model, the entire basin was divided into 14 subwatersheds in which various agricultural irrigation facilities such as agricultural reservoirs, pumping stations, diversions, culverts and groundwater wells were defined as a network of hydraulic structures within each subwatershed. These hydraulic networks between subwatersheds were inter-connected to allow watershed-scale analysis and were further connected to municipal and industrial water supplies under various hydrologic conditions. Projected climate data from the HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the period of 2006–2099 were imported to SWAT to calculate the water yield, and the output was transferred to MODSIM in the form of time-series boundary conditions. The maximum shortage rate of agricultural water was estimated as 38.2% for the 2040s and 2080s under the RCP 4.5 scenario but was lower under the RCP 8.5 scenario (21.3% in the 2040s and 22.1% in the 2080s). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the projected shortage rate was higher than that during the measured baseline period (1982–2011) of 25.6% and the RCP historical period (1982–2005) of 30.1%. The future elevated drought levels are primarily attributed to the increasingly concentrated rainfall distribution throughout the year under a monsoonal climate, as projected by the IPCC climate scenarios.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
Penetration rate of rocks is influenced by geological parameters, machine parameters and operating parameters. This paper
presents a study on the coarseness index (CI) and mean particle size (d) to evaluate the penetration rate (PR) in percussive drilling in a limestone and in a marl quarry. The coarseness index was determined from sieve analysis. The
mean particle size (d) and specific surface area (SSA) were determined by using Rossin-Rammler-Sperling (RRS) graph for each hole samples. The relationships between PR and CI, d, SSA were investigated by regression analysis. The best lines were selected in these graphs. Reliable relations were found between
penetration rate and coarseness index and mean particle size. Finally, it was seen that the coarseness index and mean particle
size could be used in evaluating the penetration rate in percussive drilling operations.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
This contribution explores the evolution of the flood risk in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (MAB; Northeast Spain) from 1981 to 2015, and how it has been affected by changes in land use, population and precipitation. To complete this study, we analysed PRESSGAMA and INUNGAMA databases to look for all the information related to the floods and flash floods that have affected the chosen region. The “Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros”, a state insurance company for extraordinary risks, provided data on economic damage. The extreme precipitation trend was analysed by the Fabra Observatory and El Prat-Airport Observatory, and daily precipitation data were provided by the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Population data were obtained from the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (IDESCAT). Changes in land use were estimated from the land use maps for Catalonia corresponding to 1956, 1993, 2000, 2005 and 2009. Prevention measures like rainwater tanks and improvements to the drainage system were also been considered. The specific case of Barcelona is presented, a city recognised by United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction as a model city for urban resilience to floods. The evolution of flood events in the MAB does not show any significant trend for this period. We argue that the evolution in floods can be explained, at least in part, by the lack of trend in extreme precipitation indices, and also by the improvements in flood prevention measures. 相似文献
The period between 21 June and 8 October, 2007 (Carrington rotations 2058 to 2061), comprising the Ulysses ecliptic plane crossing, was characterized by low solar activity. Excluding the small solar energetic particle events observed during July, the ion increases observed in the inner heliosphere between 100?keV/n and 10?MeV/n were associated with Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs). In this work, we investigate CIR-related ion increases using multipoint observations from Ulysses, ACE, and the twin STEREO spacecraft. The ballistic backmapping technique has been used to correlate in situ observations of these spacecraft and remote-sensing observations of coronal holes. Although the radial, longitudinal and latitudinal separation of the spacecraft (except Ulysses) are relatively small, we find discrepancies when a detailed comparison of narrow structures like stream interfaces and CIR-associated shocks is performed. Therefore we concentrate on the two CIR events from day 5 to day 10 of August 2007 and from day 25 to day 31 of August 2007, which lend themselves to a more undisturbed comparison. Using the multi-spacecraft measurements we could determine a radial gradient of 230±30% AU?1, which is consistent with previous results by van Hollebeke et al. (J. Geophys. Res.83, 4723, 1978) of ~?350% AU?1 using Helios and Pioneer data.
We analyzed the spectral amplitude decay with hypocentral distance of P and S waves generated by 76 small magnitude earthquakes (ML 0.9–3.8) located in the Garda region, Central-Eastern Alps, Italy. These events were recorded by 18 stations with velocity
sensors, in a distance range between 8 and 120 km. We calculated nonparametric attenuation functions (NAF) and estimated the
quality factor Q of both body waves at 17 different frequencies between 2 and 25 Hz. Assuming a homogeneous model we found that the Q frequency dependence of P and S can be approximated with the functions QP = 65 f0.9 and QS = 160 f0.6, respectively. At 2 Hz the QS/QP ratio reaches the highest value of 2.8. At higher frequencies QS/QP varies between 0.7 and 1.7, suggesting that for this frequency band scattering may be an important attenuation mechanism
in the region of Garda. To explore the variation of Q in depth, we estimated Q at short (r ≤ 30 km) and intermediate (35–90 km) distance paths. We found that in the shallow crust P waves attenuate more than S (1.3 < QS/QP < 2.5). Moreover, P waves traveling along paths in the lower crust (depths approximately greater than 30 km) attenuate more than S waves. To quantify the observed variability of Q in depth we considered a three-layer model and inverted the NAF to estimate Q in each layer. We found that in the crust Q increases with depth. However, in the upper mantle (~40–50 km depth) Q decreases and in particular the high frequency QS (f > 9 Hz) has values similar to those estimated for the shallow layer of the crust. 相似文献
Bottom sediments near shipyards are often susceptible to receiving accidental spills of TBT and metals or their degradation products from hull scraping of antifouling system paints applied prior to 2008, when the AFS Convention 2001 was not in force. We investigated TBT and metal contamination of sediments near the shipyards of a small marina located in Busan, Korea and found that they were highly contaminated with TBT, Cu, and Zn. To better understand the environmental impacts and to make an optimal remediation plan, we characterized individual antifouling fragments in terms of metal and TBT contents, magnetic properties, and grain-size. Coarse-sized individual antifouling fragments exhibited simultaneously high levels of TBT, metals and high magnetic susceptibility, and appeared to be a major source of pollution in the sediment. Therefore, magnetic separation in combination with size-separation appears to be a cost-effective remediation method to remove the TBT and metals from contaminated shipyard sediments. 相似文献
During the period from February to September 2005, Volcán de Colima produced 30 Vulcanian explosions of sufficient magnitude
to produce pyroclastic flows of variable size, with a total volume of at least 2.5 × 106 m3. Swarms of long-period events were associated with each event, their duration ranging from about 6 h to 3 days and each swarm
containing up to 886 events. The characteristics of the swarms have been studied to understand the source mechanism and their
relationship with the Vulcanian explosions. In total, 12,548 long-period events were analysed using various comparative and
statistical methods. Patterns were not apparent in the data with no correlation between different properties of the swarms
(duration, magnitude or frequency of occurrence of LP events) and the magnitude of the associated Vulcanian explosion, whether
recorded by seismicity, volume of pyroclastics or altitude of the eruption column. This, along with other characteristics
of the swarms, such as the continuation of the swarm after the explosion, with an increase in long-period event amplitude
in some cases, suggests that the mechanism is not merely associated with the pressurization under an impermeable cap and resulting
pressure differentials between adjacent volumes within the system. It is more likely that the production of long-period events
is dominated by brittle fracturing on the margins of an ascending magma body. A model is proposed whereby the unloading above
the ascending magma column produced by a Vulcanian explosion resulted in an increase in ascent rate, reflected in the increasing
amplitude of long-period events. The results reflect the complexity of non-linear processes involved during magma ascent,
degassing, crystallization and rupture of the impermeable plug during the Vulcanian process. At Volcán de Colima, as at many
volcanoes, long-period events represent a useful precursor for eruptive activity. For monitoring, this paper highlights some
useful analyses that can be carried out, which could illustrate certain characteristics of an eruptive episode. A preliminary
model is presented of the conduit processes at work during the cyclic extrusive and explosive activity during 2005. 相似文献
The ecological fallacy (EF) is a common problem regional scientists have to deal with when using aggregated data in their analyses. Although there is a wide number of studies considering different aspects of this problem, little attention has been paid to the potential negative effects of the EF in a time series context. Using Spanish regional unemployment data, this paper shows that EF effects are not only observed at the cross-section level, but also in a time series framework. The empirical evidence obtained shows that analytical regional configurations are the least susceptible to time effects relative to both normative and random regional configurations, while normative configurations are an improvement over random ones.