Sustainable shellfish aquaculture in Saldanha Bay,South Africa

The carrying capacity for bivalve shellfish culture in Saldanha Bay, South Africa, was analysed through the application of the well-tested EcoWin ecological model, in order to simulate key ecosystem variables. The model was set up using: (i) oceanographic and water-quality data collected from Saldanha Bay, and (ii) culture-practice information provided by local shellfish farmers. EcoWin successfully reproduced key ecological processes, simulating an annual mean phytoplankton biomass of 7.5 µg Chl a l^–1 and an annual harvested shellfish biomass of about 3 000 tonnes (t) y^–1, in good agreement with reported yield. The maximum annual carrying capacity of Small Bay was estimated as 20 000 t live weight (LW) of oysters Crassostrea gigas, or alternatively 5 100 t LW of mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis, and for Big Bay as 100 000 t LW of oysters. Two production scenarios were investigated for Small Bay: a production of 4 000 t LW y^–1 of mussels, and the most profitable scenario for oysters of 19 700 t LW y^–1. The main conclusions of this work are: (i) in 2015–2016, both Small Bay and Big Bay were below their maximum production capacity; (ii) the current production of shellfish potentially removes 85% of the human nitrogen inputs; (iii) a maximum-production scenario in both Big Bay and Small Bay would result in phytoplankton depletion in the farmed area; (iv) increasing the production intensity in Big Bay would probably impact the existing cultures in Small Bay; and (v) the production in Small Bay could be increased, resulting in higher income for farmers.     

Deep structure of the Racha earthquake source zone from seismic tomography data

The Racha earthquake of 1991 was the strongest of the earthquakes recorded in the Caucasus. It was studied by an international epicentral expedition. Unique data gathered by this expedition included records of aftershocks whose swarm was very intense. A 3-D velocity model is obtained from analysis of these data by the method of local earthquake tomography. The ancient crystalline basement and the sedimentary-volcanic Mesozoic-Cenozoic cover could be identified from cross sections of the P wave field. The eastern and western boundaries of an uplift in the basement of the Dzirulskii Massif are delineated. Linear low velocity heterogeneities correlating with the active Kakheti-Lechkhumi fault zone and two Trans-Caucasian linear fault zones are discovered in the basement. The cloud of aftershock hypocenters is shown to correlate with a reflector coinciding with the cover-basement interface.     

Mathematical modeling of nighttime enhanced electron density regions in the Earth’s ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 layer and plasmasphere

A mathematical modeling method and the global numerical model of the Earth’s upper atmosphere were used to study nighttime enhanced electron density regions (EEDRs) in the ionospheric F2 layer and their possible manifestations at altitudes of the Earth’s plasmasphere. It has been established that EEDRs are formed owing to latitudinally nonuniform longitudinal (along the magnetic field) plasma flows from the plasmasphere into the nighttime ionosphere and the wind transport of ions along geomagnetic field lines. The specific features of the effect of ionospheric-plasmaspheric plasma transport processes, related to their three-dimensional character, on EEDRs have been revealed.     

Quantification of the environmental structural risk with spoiling ties: is randomization worthwhile?

Many recent works show that copulas turn out to be useful in a variety of different applications, especially in environmental sciences. Here the variables of interest are usually continuous, being times, lengths, weights, and so on. Unfortunately, the corresponding observations may suffer from (instrumental) adjustments and truncations, and eventually may show several repeated values (i.e., ties). In turn, on the one hand, a tricky issue of identifiability of the model arises, and, on the other hand, the assessment of the risk may be adversely affected. A possible remedy is to adopt suitable randomization procedures: here three different strategies are outlined. The goal of the work is to carry out a simulation study in order to evaluate the effects of the randomization of multivariate observations when ties are present. In particular, it is investigated whether, how, and to what extent, the randomization may change the estimation of the structural risk: for this purpose, a coastal engineering example will be used, as archetypical of a broad class of models and problems in engineering applications. Practical advices and warnings about the use of randomization techniques are hence given.     

Coastal sea level variability in the US West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS)

Sea level variability along the US West Coast is analyzed using multi-year time series records from tide gauges and a high-resolution regional ocean model, the base of the West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS). One of the metrics utilized is the frequency of occurrences when model prediction is within 0.15 m from the observed sea level, F. A target level of F?=?90% is set by an operational agency. A combination of the tidal sea level from a shallow water inverse model, inverted barometer (IB) term computed using surface air pressure from a mesoscale atmospheric model, and low-pass filtered sea level from WCOFS representing the effect of coastal ocean dynamics (DYN) provides the most straightforward approach to reaching levels F>80%. The IB and DYN components each add between 5 and 15% to F. Given the importance of the DYN term bringing F closer to the operational requirement and its role as an indicator of the coastal ocean processes on scales from days to interannual, additional verification of the WCOFS subtidal sea level is provided in terms of the model-data correlation, standard deviation of the band-pass filtered (2–60 days) time series, the annual cycle amplitude, and alongshore sea level coherence in the range of 5–120-day periods. Model-data correlation in sea level increases from south to north along the US coast. The rms amplitude of model sea level variability in the 2–60-day band and its annual amplitude are weaker than observed north of 42 N, in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast region. The alongshore coherence amplitude and phase patterns are similar in the model and observations. Availability of the multi-year model solution allows computation and analysis of spatial maps of the coherence amplitude. For a reference location in the Southern California Bight, relatively short-period sea level motions (near 10 days) are incoherent with those north of the Santa Barbara Channel (in part, due to coastal trapped wave scattering and/or dissipation). At a range of periods around 60 days, the coastal sea level in Southern California is coherent with the sea surface height (SSH) variability over the shelf break in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, more than with the coastal SSH at the same latitudes.     

Development of Seismic Risk Scenarios Based on a Hybrid Method of Vulnerability Assessment

A hybrid methodology of vulnerability analysis is presented, involving elements from both empirical and theoretical methods. A model for correlating analytically calculated structural damage indices to loss (in monetary terms) is also proposed and calibrated against available statistical data. Probability damage matrices derived using this methodology are incorporated into a cost-benefit model tailored to the problem of estimating the feasibility of seismically rehabilitating the existing stock of reinforced concrete buildings in Thessaloniki, Greece. Losses calculated using the suggested procedure are found to be in good agreement with losses incurred during the 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake. The results of the present study also indicate that benefit/cost ratios for reinforced concrete buildings are quite low. Hence, it appears that a pre-earthquake strengthening programme is not economically justifiable.     

Anaerobic Metabolism in Tidal Freshwater Wetlands: I. Plant Removal Effects on Iron Reduction and Methanogenesis

For energetic reasons, iron reduction suppresses methanogenesis in tidal freshwater wetlands; however, when iron reduction is limited by iron oxide availability, methanogenesis dominates anaerobic carbon mineralization. Plants can mediate this microbial competition by releasing oxygen into the rhizosphere and supplying oxidized iron for iron reducers. We utilized a plant removal experiment in two wetland sites to test the hypothesis that, in the absence of plants, rates of iron reduction would be diminished, allowing methanogenesis to dominate anaerobic metabolism. In both sites, methanogenesis was the primary anaerobic mineralization pathway, with iron reduction dominating only early and late in the growing season in the site with a less organic soil. These patterns were not influenced by the presence of plants, demonstrating that plants were not a key control of microbial metabolism. Instead, we suggest that site conditions, including soil chemistry, and temperature are important controls of the pathways of anaerobic metabolism.     

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Fermat's principle for seismic rays in elastic media

We prove that rays in linearly elastic anisotropic nonuniform media obey Fermat's principle of stationary traveltime. First, we formulate the concept of rays, which emerges from the Hamilton equations. Then, we show that these rays are solutions of the variational problem stated by Fermat's principle. This proof is valid for all rays except the ones associated with infection points on the phase-slowness surface.