Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon

Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.     

Structural relaxation in the MnCO3–CaCO3 solid solution: a Mn K-edge EXAFS study

Mn K-edge EXAFS spectroscopy of solid-solution samples encompassing the complete MnCO₃–CaCO₃ series shows that first-shell Mn–O distances deviate little from the 2.19-Å distance observed in pure MnCO₃. Very slight lengthening is observed only in the limiting case of dilute Mn(II) calcite solid solutions, where the Mn–O distance is 2.21 Å. The observed nearly complete structural relaxation and the composition independence of the Mn–O distance are consistent with the Pauling model behavior of solid solutions, and agree with previous studies showing a high degree of relaxation around hetero-sized substituents in the calcite structure. Strain occurs through bond bending, which is facilitated by the exclusively corner-sharing topology of calcite. Observed distances from Mn to more distant neighbors show significant variation across the solid-solution series that resembles Vegard's law-type behavior but reflects averaging. The high degree of relaxation suggests modest enthalpies of mixing in the solution, consistent with calorimetric studies.     

Persistence of tidally-oriented vertical migration by zooplankton in a temperate estuary

Tidal vertical migration by zooplankton is a common phenomenon in estuaries, usually associated with landward movement of meroplankton or position maintenance of holoplankton. Little is known about the persistence of this behavior, its spatial variability, or its response to changing environmental conditions. We extended a previous study of tidal movements of zooplankton in the low-salinity zone (LSZ) of the San Francisco estuary in 1994 to include data from two additional years with very different hydrology. Freshwater flow during sampling in 1995 was about 7-fold greater than in 1994; the LSZ was about 28 km further seaward, and gravitational circulation in the LSZ was strong. In 1996 freshwater flow and LSZ position were intermediate but, because the LSZ was in shallower water in 1996 than in 1995, gravitational circulation was uncommon. Behavior of copepods in both years was similar to that reported in 1994 with some tidal migration observed during most cruises. An exception was the introduced carnivorous copepodTortanus dextrilobatus, which did not migrate and maintained a position deep in the water column (1995 only). In 1996, mysids mainly stayed near the bottom with evidence for vertical migration from only 1 of 6 data sets, whereas amphipods migrated slightly on a diel schedule; these behaviors contrasted with the tidal migration observed in 1994. The bay shrimpCrangon franciscorum did not appear to migrate, but was more abundant in the water column during both ebb and flood, suggesting passive vertical dispersal. Zooplankton did not appear to maintain position by interactions with lateral circulation cells. The results for copepods suggest rigidity in behavior with little or no relaxation of the vertical movement in 1995 when strong gravitational circulation would have made upstream movement relatively easy. Mysids and amphipods altered their behavior depending on local conditions related to freshwater flow.     

The El Salvador earthquakes of January and February 2001: context, characteristics and implications for seismic risk

The small Central American republic of El Salvador has experienced, on average, one destructive earthquake per decade during the last hundred years. The latest events occurred on 13 January and 13 February 2001, with magnitudes M_w 7.7 and 6.6, respectively. The two events, which were of different tectonic origin, follow the patterns of the seismicity of the region although neither event has a known precedent in the earthquake catalogue in terms of size and location. The earthquakes caused damage to thousands of traditionally built houses and triggered hundreds of landslides, which were the main causes of fatalities. The earthquakes have clearly demonstrated trends of increasing seismic risk in El Salvador due to rapid population expansion in areas of high shaking and landslide hazard, exacerbated by deforestation and uncontrolled urbanisation. The institutional mechanisms required for the control of land use and building practice are very weak and present a major obstacle to risk mitigation.     

The use of modern statistical theories in the assessment of earthquake hazard, with application to quiet regions of eastern North America

It is generally accepted that both deterministic and statistical approaches are useful for the characterization of earthquake hazard. Although the most reliable estimates of seismic hazard can only be based on an improved understanding of the earthquake mechanism, efficient utilization of the appropriate methods provided by recent statistical theories is also important in seismic risk analysis. This is especially true in regions where the connection between seismicity and geologic structure is tenuous at best. We are particularly interested in developing better statistical treatments of data for regions with little known seismic activity. To this end, we have applied three statistical methods to the historical record of seismicity in relatively quiet regions of eastern North America. These are: (1) the threshold method for tail inference, a new theory for modeling earthquakes with sizes above a given threshold, (2) the ‘bootstrap’ technique in which the characteristics of an unknown population are simulated by replacing the true population by an estimated one, and (3) a technique to estimate the number of earthquakes below a given size, in order to compensate for the under-reporting of small earthquakes in most catalogs. A combination of these techniques has been used to estimate the probabilities of future large earthquakes for the regions studied. Because of limitations imposed by existing catalogs, the size estimate used has been maximum intensity.     

ELF propagation parameters for uniform models of the Earth–ionosphere waveguide

Uniform models for the Earth–ionosphere cavity are considered with particular attention to the physical properties of the ionosphere for the extremely low frequency (ELF) range. Two consistent features have long been recognized for the range: the presence of two distinct altitude layers of maximum energy dissipation within the lower ionosphere, and a “knee”-like change in the vertical conductivity profile representing a transition in dominance from ion-dominated to electron-dominated conductivity. A simplified two-exponential version of the Greifinger and Greifinger (1978) technique widely used in ELF work identifies two slopes in the conductivity profile and, providing accurate results in the ELF communication band (45–75 Hz), simulates too flat a frequency dependence of the quality factor within the Schumann resonance frequency range (5–40 Hz). The problem is traced to the upward migration, with frequency increasing, of the lower dissipation layer through the “knee” region resulting in a pronounced decrease of the effective scale height for conductivity. To overcome this shortcoming of the two-exponential approximation and still retain valuable model analyticity, a more general approach (but still based on the Greifinger and Greifinger formalism) is presented in the form of a “knee” model whose predictions for the modal frequencies, the wave phase velocities and the quality factors reasonably represent observations in the Schumann resonance frequency range.     

African monsoon variability during the previous interglacial maximum

Little is known about centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability during interglacial times, other than the Holocene. We here present high-resolution evidence from anoxic (unbioturbated) sediments in the eastern Mediterranean Sea that demonstrates a sustained ∼800-yr climate disturbance in the monsoonal latitudes during the Eemian interglacial maximum (∼125 ka BP). Results imply that before and after this event, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) penetrated sufficiently beyond the central Saharan watershed (∼21°N) during the summer monsoon to fuel flooding into the Mediterranean along the wider North African margin, through fossil river/wadi systems that to date have been considered only within a Holocene context. Relaxation in the ITCZ penetration during the intra-Eemian event curtailed this flux, but flow from the Nile - with its vast catchment area - was not affected. Previous work suggests a concomitant Eurasian cooling event, with intensified impact of the higher-latitude climate on the Mediterranean basin. The combined signals are very similar to those described for the Holocene cooling event around 8 ka BP. The apparent type of concurrent changes in the monsoon and higher-latitude climate may reflect a fundamental mechanism for variability in the transfer of energy (latent heat) between the tropics and higher latitudes.     

From stable dipolar towards reversing numerical dynamos

We are using a three-dimensional convection-driven numerical dynamo model without hyperdiffusivity to study the characteristic structure and time variability of the magnetic field in dependence of the Rayleigh number (Ra) for values up to 40 times supercritical. We also compare a variety of ways to drive the convection and basically find two dynamo regimes. At low Ra, the magnetic field at the surface of the model is dominated by the non-reversing axial dipole component. At high Ra, the dipole part becomes small in comparison to higher multipole components. At transitional values of Ra, the dynamo vacillates between the dipole-dominated and the multipolar regime, which includes excursions and reversals of the dipole axis. We discuss, in particular, one model of chemically driven convection, where for a suitable value of Ra, the mean dipole moment and the temporal evolution of the magnetic field resemble the known properties of the Earth’s field from paleomagnetic data.