Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

Integrated chronostratigraphy of Proterozoic-Cambrian boundary beds in the western Anabar region, northern Siberia

Carbonate-rich sedimentary rocks of the western Anabar region, northern Siberia, preserve an exceptional record of evolutionary and biogeochemical events near the Proterozoic/Cambrian boundary. Sedimentologically, the boundary succession can be divided into three sequences representing successive episodes of late transgressive to early highstand deposition; four parasequences are recognized in the sequence corresponding lithostratigraphically to the Manykal Formation. Small shelly fossils are abundant and include many taxa that also occur in standard sections of southeastern Siberia. Despite this coincidence of faunal elements, biostratigraphic correlations between the two regions have been controversial because numerous species that first appear at or immediately above the basal Tommotian boundary in southeastern sections have first appearances scattered through more than thirty metres of section in the western Anabar. Carbon- and Sr-isotopic data on petrographically and geochemically screened samples collected at one- to two-metre intervals in a section along the Kotuikan River, favour correlation of the Staraya Reckha Formation and most of the overlying Manykai Formation with sub-Tommotian carbonates in southeastern Siberia. In contrast, isotopic data suggest that the uppermost Manykai Formation and the basal 26 m of the unconformably overlying Medvezhya Formation may have no equivalent in the southeast; they appear to provide a sedimentary and palaeontological record of an evolutionarily significant time interval represented in southeastern Siberia only by the sub-Tommotian unconformity. Correlations with radiometrically dated horizons in the Olenek and Kharaulakh regions of northern Siberia suggest that this interval lasted approximately three to six million years, during which essentially all 'basal Tommotian' small shelly fossils evolved.     

Total ozone variations in the tropical belt: An application for quality of ground based measurements

Summary The study of the regime of ozone variations in the huge tropical belt (25° S to 25° N), which are, in general, very small and zonally nearly symmetric, permits to establish a statistical model for estimating the ozone deviations using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data. The equatorial stratospheric winds at 25 and 50hPa and the solar flux at 10.7 cm are used as major predictors and the linear trend was also estimated. The 10m/sec stratospheric wind change is related to1.2% ozone change at the equator, to practically no change in the 8–15° belts and up to 1.4% change with opposite phase over the tropics in spring but nearly zero change in fall. The solar cycle related amplitude is about 1.4% per 100 units of 10.7 cm solar flux. The ozone trends are negative: not significant over the equator and about –2% per decade (significant at 95% level) over the tropics. The latter could have been enforced by the 2 to 4% lower ozone values during 1991–1993, part of which might be related to the effects of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, but might also be due to the strong QBO. The estimated deviations are verified versus reliable observations and the very good agreement permits applying the model for quantitative quality control of the reported ozone data from previous years. The standard deviation of the difference between observed ozone deviations and those estimated from the model is only 0.9–1.6% for yearly mean, that means instruments used for total ozone observations in the tropical belt should have systematic error of less than 1%. Cases when the discrepancies between the model and reported observations at a given station exceed 2–3% for time interval of 2 or more years should be verified.With 17 Figures     

Objective measures of the information density of satellite data

Summary We propose and objective method whereby the density of Shannon's information associated with the retrieval of a profile of atmospheric variables from satellite-derived infrared radiance measurements may be estimated. The technique is a natural extension of one we previously proposed to estimate the effective data density in a profile. We test the method in a comparison of simulated satellite instruments to show that the method does indeed provide an objective summary of the spatial distribution of each instrument's information content. We propose that further extensions of the method be developed to include other more traditional data sources in a fully three-dimensional scheme. We also note that analogous and compatible methods may be used to diagnose the information content of meteorological analysis and forecast fields relative to the information contained in the covariance, at the appropriate season, of the corresponding climate fields.With 8 Figures     

Use of precipitation data for diabatic initialization to improve the tropical analysis of divergence and moisture

Summary First, we review the present status of diabatic initialization used for numerical weather prediction and conclude that the deficiency of diabatic initialization mostly stems from the shortcoming in evaluating diabatic heating rates accurately, particularly the release of latent heat by cumulus convection. This indicates the need to adjust the initial conditions for physical processes, and Krishnamurti and his colleagues introduced in 1984 the concept of physical initialization. Since cumulus convection is most sensitive to input data among many physical processes, the adjustment of atmospheric input data to a prediction model to produce desired initial precipitation rates is referred to as cumulus initialization.In this article we describe a general approach to diabatic initialization with a special emphasis on cumulus initialization. We present the results of forecasting experiments with a version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) to demonstrate the efficacy of a cumulus initialization procedure to ameliorate the spinup problern of precipitation. Finally, we discuss application of the present methodology of cumulus initialization for a stability-dependent mass-flux cumulus parameterization of CCM2 to pave the way to complete the diabatic normal mode initialization package for CCM2. Note that the present cumulus initialization scheme can be used to assimilate into the atmospheric analysis of the tropics the precipitation rates estimated by satellite radiometric imagery data.With 8 FiguresThe National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation     

Crystal-Mush Compaction and the Origin of Pegmatitic Segregation Sheets in a Thick Flood-Basalt Flow in the Mesozoic Hartford Basin, Connecticut

Where the Holyoke flood-basalt flow in the Mesozoic HartfordBasin in Connecticut is thick and contains coarse-grained, horizontalsegregation sheets in its central part, the lower part of theflow is strongly depleted in incompatible elements; where theflow is thin and contains no segregation sheets it is homogeneousthroughout. This chemical variation can be explained only throughcompaction of the partly crystallized basalt. The compositionof the segregation sheets shows that they separated from thebasalt following only 33% crystallization. The segregation sheets,however, are clearly intrusive into the basalt, which must thereforehave already formed a crystal mush with finite strength at thislow degree of crystallinity. The incompatible element concentrationsindicate that the partly crystallized basalt underwent as muchas 28% compaction in the lowest 60 m of the flow. Between 60and 130 m above the base of the flow, the crystal mush becamedilated, and eventually ruptured with formation of the segregationsheets. No segregation sheet has a composition indicating separationafter more than 33% crystallization of the basalt. This is interpretedto indicate that compaction ceased at this stage because ofthe increasing strength of the mush and the increasing densityof the fractionating interstitial liquid KEY WORDS: crystal-mush compaction; segregation shtets; flood basalt; tholeiitie; Connecticut ^*e-mail: philpotts{at}geol.uconn.edu     

Quantification of the effects of secondary matrix on the analysis of sandstone composition, and a petrographic-chemical technique for retrieving original framework grain modes of altered sandstones

Most studies of sandstone provenance involve modal analysis of framework grains using techniques that exclude the fine-grained breakdown products of labile mineral grains and rock fragments, usually termed secondary matrix or pseudomatrix. However, the data presented here demonstrate that, when the proportion of pseudomatrix in a sandstone exceeds 10%, standard petrographic analysis can lead to incorrect provenance interpretation. Petrographic schemes for provenance analysis such as QFL and QFR should not therefore be applied to sandstones containing more than 10% secondary matrix. Pseudomatrix is commonly abundant in sandstones, and this is therefore a problem for provenance analysis. The difficulty can be alleviated by the use of whole-rock chemistry in addition to petrographic analysis. Combination of chemical and point-count data permits the construction of normative compositions that approximate original framework grain compositions. Provenance analysis is also complicated in many cases by fundamental compositional alteration during weathering and transport. Many sandstones, particularly shallow marine deposits, have undergone vigorous reworking, which may destroy unstable mineral grains and rock fragments. In such cases it may not be possible to retrieve provenance information by either petrographic or chemical means. Because of this, pseudomatrix-rich sandstones should be routinely included in chemical-petrological provenance analysis. Because of the many factors, both pre- and post-depositional, that operate to increase the compositional maturity of sandstones, petrologic studies must include a complete inventory of matrix proportions, grain size and sorting parameters, and an assessment of depositional setting.     

Motion of test particles in parabolic density distributions

A detailed study of the motion of test-particles [either having a nonzero rest-mass or zero rest-mass] has been carried out for Tolman's type VII solution with vanishing surface density, which is one of the few physically relevant exact solutions of Einstein's field equations for static and spherically symmetric mass distributions.The trapping angles, 0, at which the test-particles escape these configurations are calculated and the trajectories of test-particles are studied in detail. The types of trajectories found for this spacetime geometry are: (1) arc-like trajectories, (2) spiral-like trajectories ending into a circle of constant radius, (3) trajectories with a cusp at the minimum distance, (4) double-bounded trajectories, and (5) double-bounded trajectories with a cusp at the minimum distance. The test-particles following the trajectories of type (1) and type (3) escape the configuration while others are trapped within the structure. Besides the advancement of periastron of the orbits the retrogradation of periastrons are also observed.The stability of the structures is considered by using the variational method (Chandrasekhar, 1964a,b), and its is seen that the structures remain stable at least for a central redshift,z0, as large as 5.09.These studies may distinguish relativistic cluster from a Newtonian one and may find application to the local models of quasi-stellar objects (QSOs).     

Revised chemical models of ζ Oph based on HST data

Hubble Space Telescope observations by Savage, Cardelli and Sofia (1992) and Cardelliet al. (1993) have led to improved gas phase abundances for many elements in the diffuse cloud towards the star Oph. Most remarkably, it was found that oxygen is much more strongly depleted than previousCopernicus observations indicated. As a consequence, chemical models of the Oph cloud are severely affected by the drop in the observed oxygen abundance by almost a factor of two; some previous model calculations for the Oph cloud failed to reproduce-even approximately-the observed high CO column density. The model calculations for the Oph cloud developed by Wagenblast (1992) in which the abundance of all observed neutral molecules could be reproduced have been revised and it is found that oxygen and nitrogen hydrides are required to be formed efficiently on the surface of grains; further, there are indications for a high cosmic ray ionization rate of the order 10^–16 s^–1.     

A quantitative analysis of the prototype [WCL] star CPD-56° 8032

We present a detailed, quantitative study of the standard [WC10] Wolf-Rayet central star CPD-56^o 8032 based on new high resolution AAT UCLES observations and the Hillier (1990) WR standard model. Our analysis of CPD-56^o 8032 gives the wind properties (T _*=34500K, lg (L/L )=3.8, lg (M/M a^–1)=–5.4,v =225 km s^–1) and chemistry (C/He=0.5, O/He=0.1, by number), the latter suggesting an intimate relationship with the Ovi PN central stars and the PG 1159-035 objects. A comparison between the wind properties of CPD-56^o 8032 and Sk-66^o 40 (WN 10) indicates that low excitation, low wind velocity WR winds are common to both low mass PN central stars (WC sequence) and high mass post-LBV's (WN sequence).