Simulated precipitation response to SST forcing and potential predictability in the region of the South Atlantic convergence zone

The sensitivity of the precipitation response in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) to sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is investigated by an inter-model comparison study of ensembles of multidecadal integrations of two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs)—version 1 of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) model, and the NCAR community climate model (CCM3) version 3.6.6. Despite the different physical parameterizations, the two models consistently show an SST-forced signal located mainly over the oceanic portion of the SACZ. The signal has interannual-to-decadal timescales, and consists of a shift and strengthening of the SACZ toward anomalous warm waters. A potential predictability analysis reveals that the maximum predictable variance is about 50% of the total SACZ variance over the ocean, but the signal attenuates rapidly toward the South American continent. This result implies that the land portion of the SACZ is primarily dominated by the internal variability, thereby having a limited potential predictability at seasonal timescales.     

Determination of the concentration of chemical main and trace elements (chemical matrix) in the aerosol from 1972 to 1982 at a North-alpine pure air station at 1780 m a.s.l.

Summary Aerosol particles have been separated by filter at a mountain station at 1780 m a.s.l. continuously since 1972. The station (a WMO-BAPMoN station with extended program) is freely exposed to all sides and in no way influenced by local aerosol sources. In the cold seasons it lies almost exclusively above the convection layer (very often over inversions) so that real background data can be acquired in these cases. By means of analytical methods the chemical components are determined on the exposed filters. This includes (apart from crust elements) also cations and anions from man-made and maritime sources as well as some important trace elements (in all, 15 components). Filters are exposed over 1–4 days. Filter exchange is determined by the respective weather situation with due regard to all changes so that the requirements for a reasonable correlation of the measured values with the meteorological conditions are met. Additionally, all meteorological parameters are determined, as well as intensity of the vertical exchange, number density of Aitken nuclei, concentration of natural radioactivity (RaB), and other variables. In the present paper the components of the aerosol chemical matrix are related to the behavior of the parameters below and the results are discussed in detail: Dependence of the individual components on total aerosol mass per volume, type of air mass; representation of two single cases of long-range transport of crust elements (source areas: Sahara, Colorado); vertical exchange coefficient, concentration of natural radioactivity, temperature gradient between valley and mountain station, temperature at the sampling site, relative humidity, precipitation rate, wind direction. occurrence of fog.Zusammenfassung An einer allseitig frei exponierten Bergstation in 1780 m NN werden seit 1982 die Aerosolpartikel auf Filtern gesammelt. Die Station (eine WMO-BAPMoN-Station mit erweitertem Programm) wird nicht durch lokale Aerosolquellen in irgendeiner Weise beeinflußt. Sie liegt in den kalten Jahreszeiten fast ausschließlich über der Konvektionsschicht (sehr oft oberhalb von Inversionen), so daß in diesen Fällen echte Background-Daten erfaßt werden. Mittels analytischer Verfahren werden an den exponierten Filtern alle chemischen Hauptkomponenten (von den Krustenelementen abgesehen auch die Kationen und Anionen sowohl anthropogenen als auch maritimen Ursprungs), sowie einige gewichtige Spurenelemente (insgesamt 15 Komponenten) bestimmt. Die Filter werden 1–4 Tage lang exponiert. Der Filterwechsel wird durch den jeweiligen Wetterzustand bzw. seiner Veränderung gesteuert, so daß eine gute Voraussetzung für eine Zuordnung der Meßwerte zu den meteorologischen Bedingungen gegeben ist. Zusätzlich werden alle meteorologischen Parameter, sowie die Intensität des Vertikalaustausches, Zahl der Aitken-Kerne, Konzentration der natürlichen Radioaktivität (RaB) und andere Größen bestimmt. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden die Komponenten der chemischen Aerosolmatrix zum Verhalten der folgenden Parameter in Beziehung gesetzt und die Ergebnisse eingehend diskutiert:Abhängigkeit der Einzelkomponenten von: Gesamt-Aerosohnasse pro Volumen; Typ der Luftmasse und Darstellung von zwei Einzelfällen eines Ferntransportes von Krustenelementen (Quellgebiete: Sahara, Colorado); vertikaler Austauschkoeffizient; Konzentration der natürlichen Radioaktivität; Temperaturgradient zwischen Tal- und Bergstation; Temperatur an der Probennahmestelle; relative Feuchte; Niederschlagsintensität; Windrichtung; Auftreten von Nebel.

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Bestimmung der Konzentration chemischer Haupt- und Spurenstoffe (chemische Matrix) im Aerosol von 1972 bis 1982 an einer nordalpinen Reinluftstation in 1780 m NN.Teil II: Parametrische Korrelationsanalyse der chemischen Matrix mit Berücksichtigung meteorologischer Größen

     

A canonical theory for short GPS baselines. Part IV: precision versus reliability

This contribution is the last of four parts and deals with the link between baseline precision and ambiguity reliability. It is shown analytically how and to what extent the baseline-ambiguity correlation is related to the gain in baseline precision, to the volume of the ambiguity search space, and to the impact of potential integer ambiguity biases. Also, an ambiguity DOP measure is introduced together with its closed-form formulae for the three different single-baseline models. Received: 16 July 1996 / Accepted: 14 November 1996     

Solar models with strong turbulence

A series of evolutionary models for the Sun were constructed using the strong turbulence model of the variable mixing-length theory (AMLT) of Canuto (1990). The present values of the solar model were obtained by an initial compositionX = 0.754,Z = 0.019, and(x) = 1.1. The physical variables which were obtained by applying the strong turbulence case of AMLT were similar to those of weak turbulence model (Kzlolu and Civelek, 1992) if we focused on the fitting of present solar radius and luminosity.     

Geochemical processes controlling arsenic mobility in groundwater: A case study of arsenic mobilization and natural attenuation

The behavior of As in the subsurface environment was examined along a transect of groundwater monitoring wells at a Superfund site, where enhanced reductive dechlorination (ERD) is being used for the remediation of groundwater contaminated with chlorinated solvents. The transect was installed parallel to the groundwater flow direction through the treatment area. The ERD technology involves the injection of organic C (OC) to stimulate in situ microbial dechlorination processes. A secondary effect of the ERD treatment at this site, however, is the mobilization of As, as well as Fe and Mn. The concentrations of these elements are low in groundwater collected upgradient of the ERD treatment area, indicating that, in the absence of the injected OC, the As that occurs naturally in the sediment is relatively immobile. Batch experiments conducted using sediments from the site inoculated with an Fe(III)- and As(V)-reducing bacterium and amended with lactate resulted in mobilization of As, Fe and Mn, suggesting that As mobilization in the field is due to microbial processes.     

Variable vegetation cover and episodic sand movement on longitudinal desert sand dunes

Longitudinal (linear) sand dunes of the Simpson and Strzelecki dunefields in eastern central Australia present a paradox. Low levels of activity today stand in contrast to luminescence dating which has repeatedly shown deep deposits of sand on dune crests dating to within the late Holocene. In order to investigate the nature of dune activity in the Simpson–Strzelecki dunefield, vegetation and sand mobility were investigated by detailed vegetation survey and measurement of rippled area and loose sand depth of dunes at three sites along a climatic gradient. The response of both vegetation and sand movement to inter-annual climate variability was examined by repeat surveys of two sites in drought and non-drought conditions. Projected plant cover and plant + crust cover were found to have inverse linear relationships with rippled area and the area of deep loose sand. No relationship was found between these measures of sand movement and the plant frontal area index. A negative exponential relationship between equivalent mobile sand depth on dune surfaces and both vascular plant cover and vascular + crust cover was also found. There is no simple threshold of vegetation cover below which sand transport begins. Dunes with low perennial plant cover may form small dunes with slip faces leading to a positive feedback inhibiting ephemeral plant growth in wet years and accelerating sand transport rates. The linear dunefields are largely within the zone in which plant cover is sufficient to enforce low sand transport rates, and in which there is a strong response of vegetation and sand transport to inter-annual variation in rainfall. Both ephemeral plants (mostly forbs) and crust were found to respond rapidly to large (> 20 mm/month) rainfall events. On millennial time-scales, the level of dune activity is controlled by vegetation cover and probably not by fluctuations of wind strength. Land use or extreme, decadal time-scale, drought may destabilise dunes by removing perennial plant cover, accelerating wind erosion.     

A SIMPLE SOIL MOISTURE INDEX TO FORECAST CROP YIELDS

Neutron probe soil moisture measurements obtained biweekly during the growing season between 1982 and 1991 from multiple depths under grass-covered plots at 17 Illinois Climate Network sites are used to forecast crop yields. A Soil Moisture Index (SMIX) that combines the effect of intensity, duration, and timing of drought or excessively wet conditions was computed by integrating the quantity of available soil moisture throughout the rooting zone over the growing season. Relationships between the SMIX values and crop yields are evaluated at county, regional, and statewide scales. Coefficients of determination (r ²) for relationships between the SMIX values and maize, soybeans, and hay yields at the statewide level are 0.88, 0.74, and 0.81, respectively, when the period of integration is terminated at the end of the growing season. This new soil index can be employed to forecast yields as early as 12 weeks before harvest for the state of Illinois. However, predictions with RMSE ≤ 10% of the mean yield can be achieved only for SMIX integration periods ending 5, 9, and 6 weeks before harvest for maize, soybeans, and hay, respectively. Nomograms are presented for using the relationships between the SMIX values and crop yields to forecast Illinois's major crops well before harvest.