Intercomparison of the seasonal cycle of tropical surface stress in 17 AMIP atmospheric general circulation models

 The mean state of the tropical atmosphere is important as the nature of the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere depends nonlinearly on the basic state of the coupled system. The simulation of the annual cycle of the tropical surface wind stress by 17 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) is examined and intercompared. The models considered were part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) and were integrated with observed sea surface temperature (SST) for the decade 1979–1988. Several measures have been devised to intercompare the performance of the 17 models on global tropical as well as regional scales. Within the limits of observational uncertainties, the models under examination simulate realistic tropical area-averaged zonal and meridional annual mean stresses. This is a noteworthy improvement over older generation low resolution models which were noted for their simulation of surface stresses considerably weaker than the observations. The models also simulate realistic magnitudes of the spatial distribution of the annual mean surface stress field and are seen to reproduce realistically its observed spatial pattern. Similar features are observed in the simulations of the annual variance field. The models perform well over almost all the tropical regions apart from a few. Of these, the simulations over Somali are interesting. Over this region, the models are seen to underestimate the annual mean zonal and meridional stresses. There is also wide variance between the different models in simulating these quantities. Large model-to-model variations were also seen in the simulations of the annual mean meridional stress field over equatorial Indian Ocean, south central Pacific, north east Pacific and equatorial eastern Pacific oceans. It is shown that the systematic errors in simulating the surface winds are related to the systematic errors in simulating the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in its location and intensity. Weaker than observed annual mean southwesterlies simulated by most models over Somali is due to weaker than observed southwesterlies during the Northern Hemisphere summer. This is related to the weaker than observed land precipitation simulated by most models during the Northern Hemisphere summer. The diversity in simulation of the surface wind over Somali and equatorial Indian ocean is related to the diversity of AGCMs in simulating the precipitation zones in these regions. Received: 2 August 1996 / Accepted: 7 February 1997     

Reliability assessment of serviceability performance of braced retaining walls using a neural network approach

In urban environments, one major concern with deep excavations in soft clay is the potentially large ground deformations in and around the excavation. Excessive movements can damage adjacent buildings and utilities. There are many uncertainties associated with the calculation of the ultimate or serviceability performance of a braced excavation system. These include the variabilities of the loadings, geotechnical soil properties, and engineering and geometrical properties of the wall. A risk‐based approach to serviceability performance failure is necessary to incorporate systematically the uncertainties associated with the various design parameters. This paper demonstrates the use of an integrated neural network–reliability method to assess the risk of serviceability failure through the calculation of the reliability index. By first performing a series of parametric studies using the finite element method and then approximating the non‐linear limit state surface (the boundary separating the safe and ‘failure’ domains) through a neural network model, the reliability index can be determined with the aid of a spreadsheet. Two illustrative examples are presented to show how the serviceability performance for braced excavation problems can be assessed using the reliability index. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The wadic project: A comprehensive field evaluation of directional wave instrumentation

The results of a comprehensive field trial of nearly all commercially available directional wave measurement systems at the Edda field in the North Sea during winter 1985-86 are presented. The results summarize the accuracy of the principal engineering wave parameters from each system and the dependence on sea state. Limiting factors on system performance and operational problems are also included in the assessment. Overall experience has been good with systems utilizing widely different measurement principles returning consistent results.     

Heat flow near obstacles in the solar convection zone

Disturbances in the heat flow in the solar convection zone are calculated with a turbulent thermal diffusion coefficient based on a mixing length approximation. As a consequence of the radiative boundary condition at the surface and the strong increase of the diffusion coefficient with depth, the convection zone resembles a thermally superconducting shell enclosed between a thin surface layer and an interior core of low thermal conductivity. Thermal disturbances originating in the convection zone do not penetrate into the interior, and penetrate only weakly through the solar surface. A thermally isolating obstacle buried entirely in the convection zone casts a shadow of reduced temperature at the solar surface; the brightening surrounding this shadow is undetectable. The shadow is weak unless the object is located close to the surface (less than 2000 km). Assuming a sunspot to be an area of reduced thermal conductivity which extends a finite depth into the convection zone, the heat flow around this obstacle is calculated. The heat flux blocked below the spot (missing flux) spreads over a very extended area surrounding the spot. The brightening corresponding to this missing flux is undetectable if the reduction of the thermal conductivity extends to a depth greater than 1000 km. It is concluded that no effect other than a decrease of the convective efficiency is needed to explain the temperature change observed at the solar surface in and around a sunspot. The energy balance is calculated between magnetic flux tubes, oriented vertically in the solar surface, (magnetic elements in active regions and the quiet network) and their surroundings. Near the visible surface radiation enters the tube laterally from the surrounding convection zone. The heating effect of this influx is important for small tubes (less than a few arcseconds). Due to this influx tubes less than about 1 in diameter can appear as bright structures irrespective of the amount of heat conveyed along the tube itself. Through the lateral influx, small tubes such as are found in the quiet network act as little leaks in the solar surface through which an excess heat flux escapes from the convection zone.