中国地区春霜冻的变化趋势和未来情景预估北大核心CSCD

春季的霜冻事件是北半球温带地区与农业相关的最严重的极端事件之一。在气候变化背景下,探究整个中国地区春霜冻的变化趋势和未来可能变化有利于增进人们对春霜冻的认识,对我国未来农业结构调整有一定的参考价值。本文采用不易受离群值影响且考虑了自相关的非参数方法,在分析1960~2020年观测资料的基础上,利用24个耦合模式比较计划第6阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)模式模拟的中等辐射强迫(SSP2-4.5)情景下的逐日最低温数据,在评估模式模拟性能后对中国地区未来(2021~2100年)的春霜冻日数、终霜日的变化趋势的空间分布特征以及与1991~2020年气候态相比的全国平均的距平序列进行了分析。结果表明:1)1960~2020年,全国约60.3%站点的春霜冻日数呈现显著减少趋势[-3.5~0 d(10 a)^(-1)],40%站点的终霜日呈显著提前趋势[-4.3~0 d(10 a)^(-1)];全国平均的春霜冻日数呈^(-1).3 d(10 a)^(-1)的显著减少趋势,终霜日则呈^(-1).7 d(10 a)^(-1)的显著提前趋势。2)2021~2100年,预估我国大部分地区的春霜冻日数均呈现显著减少趋势[^(-1).6~0 d(10 a)^(-1)],终霜日则呈显著提前趋势[^(-1).4~0 d(10 a)^(-1)];全国平均的春霜冻日数呈现-0.8 d(10 a)^(-1)的显著减少趋势,终霜日呈现-0.8 d(10 a)^(-1)的显著提前趋势。     

On Multi-Timescale Variability of Temperature in China in Modulated Annual Cycle Reference Frame

The traditional anomaly (TA) reference frame and its corresponding anomaly for a given data span changes with the extension of data length. In this study, the modulated annual cycle (MAC), instead of the widely used climatological mean annual cycle, is used as an alternative reference frame for computing climate anomalies to study the multi-timescale variability of surface air temperature (SAT) in China based on homogenized daily data from 1952 to 2004. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method is used to separate daily SAT into a high frequency component, a MAC component, an interannual component, and a decadal-to-trend component. The results show that the EEMD method can reflect historical events reasonably well, indicating its adaptive and temporally local characteristics. It is shown that MAC is a temporally local reference frame and will not be altered over a particular time span by an extension of data length, thereby making it easier for physical interpretation. In the MAC reference frame, the low frequency component is found more suitable for studying the interannual to longer timescale variability (ILV) than a 13-month window running mean, which does not exclude the annual cycle. It is also better than other traditional versions (annual or summer or winter mean) of ILV, which contains a portion of the annual cycle. The analysis reveals that the variability of the annual cycle could be as large as the magnitude of interannual variability. The possible physical causes of different timescale variability of SAT in China are further discussed.     

Ranking Regional Drought Events in China for 1960--2009

The spatiotemporal variations of the site and regional droughts in China during 1960–2009 were analyzed by applying a daily composite-drought index (CDI) to 722 stations in mainland China. Droughts frequently happened in a zone extended from Southwest China to the Yellow River, North China, and the southwestern part of Northeast China, with two centers of high frequency in North China and Southwest China. In Southwest and South China, droughts tend to happen during the winter. In North China and along the Yellow River, droughts mainly occur during the winter and during May–June. During the past 50 years, the geographical distribution of site drought events showed high frequencies (0.9–1.3 times per year) in the upper Yellow River basin and North China, comparing with moderate frequencies (0.6–0.9 times per year) in Southwest China and the southwestern part of Northeast China and with lower frequencies over the middle and lower Yangtze River basin. And the frequencies increased over mainland China except for the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. A regional drought (RD) event is a widespread and persistent event that covers at least five adjacent sites and lasts for at least 10 days. There were 252 RD events in the past 50 years—five times per year. Most RD events lasted for <100 days and covered <100 stations, but the longest and largest RD event lasted for 307 days from 6 September 1998 to 9 July 1999 and covered 327 stations from North to Southwest China.     

Simulation analysis on the regulation of overflow ecological water consumption in arid areas——A case study in the Canmrik ecological area of the mainstream zone of the Tarim River

After analyzing the regulation of overflow ecological water consumption in the Canmrik ecological area of mainstream zone of the Tarim River, in this paper a model of ecological bifurcation is developed, the dynamic overflow process of ecological bifurcation is simulated, and the quantitative relationships between the volume of ecological water consumption and the ecological conservation extent and overflow time are analyzed using GIS, advance of freshet and RS means. The results reveal that the effects of discharge and time of ecological bifurcation on the efficiency of ecological water consump-tion are significant, there is a geometrical exponential relationship between the efficiency of ecological bifurcation and the water supply with different discharges and different times under the same eco-logical water consumption, hypsography plays an important role in ecological water consumption, the regulation of ecological water consumption cannot be equated with the ordinary farming irrigation system, a serious water waste will result and the prospective ecological benefits will not be able to be achieved if an ordinary ecological bifurcation is implemented. The efficiency of ecological water con-sumption can be increased by 30% by selecting the bifurcation schemes in an optimized way, which is of the utmost importance for arid areas with shortage of water resources.     

地震危险性与核电厂密闭可靠性的评价方法

本文就考虑地震危险性时，核电厂安全壳的防泄露可靠性的评价方法进行了理论研究，探讨了地震模型问题中的参数确定的一些方面，给出了可靠性评价的总体思路、分析方法及具体步骤，确定了要考虑的不定参数及其描述，并进而利用概率断裂力学推导出可靠性计算的一般公式。     

关于1933年叠溪7.5级地震若干问题的讨论

１９３３ 年叠溪７５ 级地震是本世纪发生于青藏高原东缘的重大事件。对这次地震, 不同部门曾进行考察, 但给出的等烈度线图有着明显的分歧, 这一分歧意味着对该次地震发震构造认识的不同。本文基于对该次地震的震害特征、震中位置、震中区地质构造环境以及发震构造的讨论, 认为南北向的活动断裂有可能是该次地震的发震构造, 而该活动断裂可能是岷江断裂的南延。     

叠合盆地构造热演化模拟方法研究——以江汉盆地为例

基于地球动力学的构造-热演化方法是沉积盆地热史研究的重要方法之一.本文以江汉盆地宜随大剖面为例,采用平衡剖面方法对叠合盆地复杂、漫长的演化历史进行构造恢复,采用多期有限拉张-挤压应变速率法进行古热流反演,最后得到盆地的古地温场.由此,建立了构造恢复—盆地基底热流反演—岩石圈尺度温度结构—沉积盆地尺度温度结构的多期伸展、挤压模型的热模拟方法流程,实现了岩石圈尺度的热模拟与盆地尺度的热模拟相结合.     

云南省丽江-宾川地区二叠纪玄武岩地球化学特征及其构造背景研究

在峨眉山大火成岩省中,宾川-丽江地区的溢流玄武岩厚度最大,发育较为完整.该区岩石ω(SiO2)(36.72%～51.44%),微量元素中不相客元素如大离子亲石元素K,Rb,Cs,Ba,Th富集;高场强元素Ta,Nd,Hf,Zr以及LREE含量低.它们的岩石地球化学性质呈现递变性,富集轻稀土和大离子亲石元素,具有与洋岛玄武岩相似的地球化学特征,为板内拉张玄武岩.通过对其进行岩石学和地球化学研究,系统分析该区玄武岩岩石地球化学及其岩浆活动特征.认为研究区玄武岩可划分为3个系列:高镁(ωMgO=12.3%～14.3%)、低镁(ωMgO=2.48%～7.53%)和过渡系列(ωMgO=10.4%～11.3%)火山岩.高镁系列玄武岩岩石接近原始岩浆的组成,岩浆源区可能为下地慢,形成深度大,源区地幔部分熔融比例小;低镁系列玄武岩受到较强的地壳混柒作用的影响,显示出富集岩石圈地幔或地壳物质的参与,形成深度浅,熔融比例较大,可能有地壳物质混染;过渡系列介于前两者之间.根据玄武岩大地构造环境判别图解,确定玄武岩形成于大陆拉张环境,与地幔柱活动有关.     

歧口凹陷湖盆特征及对油气成藏控制作用研究

通过分析歧口凹陷湖盆基本特征,剖析构造断裂演化与油气成藏关系,探索其对油气成藏的控制作用.歧口凹陷湖盆自古近纪-新近纪经历了断陷期、断坳转换期、拗陷期三大演化阶段,现今表现为多隆多凹、盆岭相间的分布特征.受区域构造应力场及幕式演化影响,湖盆断裂以NE、近EW向为主,主断裂以侧接、转换为特色.凹陷主要发育潜山构造带、断阶构造带、盖层滑脱型断裂构造带,不同构造带油气成藏模式富集特点差异明显.根据断裂构造与油气成藏关系,认为海陆调解带裂缝油气藏的勘探、远源缓坡区沿断裂构造脊的中浅层勘探及大断裂控制的"Y"字型浅层构造及两侧火成岩勘探是下步工作重点方向.     

磁异常解释推断方法探讨及物探应用展望

近几年来,随着战略性矿产远景调查项目的开展,地面高精度磁测一直是主要的物探方法之一,为区域地质调查、成(控)矿地质构造研究、矿产资源评价等工作提供了丰富的地球物理场信息,同时,在金属矿产勘查中能依据矿体与围岩的磁性差异、伴生的磁性矿物直接或间接确定矿体,尤其在铁矿勘查中,磁测更是一种直接找矿的不可或缺的方法。本文总结了磁异常的数据整理及数据处理中一些方法在使用中的问题,并尝试针对解释推断结果提出可靠的、较可靠的、可供参考的三级评价要求。