Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system

Abstract

This article presents a comparison between real-time discharges calculated by a flash-flood warning system and post-event flood peak estimates. The studied event occurred on 15 and 16 June 2010 at the Argens catchment located in the south of France. Real-time flood warnings were provided by the AIGA (Adaptation d’Information Géographique pour l’Alerte en Crue) warning system, which is based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1-km² resolution using radar rainfall information. The timing of the warnings (updated every 15 min) was compared to the observed flood impacts. Furthermore, “consolidated” flood peaks estimated by an intensive post-event survey were used to evaluate the AIGA-estimated peak discharges. The results indicated that the AIGA warnings clearly identified the most affected areas. However, the effective lead-time of the event detection was short, especially for fast-response catchments, because the current method does not take into account any rainfall forecast. The flood peak analysis showed a relatively good correspondence between AIGA- and field-estimated peak values, although some differences were due to the rainfall underestimation by the radar and rainfall–runoff model limitations.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Pansu, J. and Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1390–1402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923970     

Impacts of climate change on coastal benthic ecosystems: assessing the current risk of mortality outbreaks associated with thermal stress in NW Mediterranean coastal areas

In the framework of climate change, the increase in ocean heat wave frequency is expected to impact marine life. Large-scale positive temperature anomalies already occurred in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea in 1999, 2003 and 2006. These anomalies were associated with mass mortality events of macrobenthic species in coastal areas (0–40 m in depth). The anomalies were particularly severe in 1999 and 2003 when thousands of kilometres of coasts and about 30 species were affected. The aim of this study was to develop a methodology to assess the current risk of mass mortality associated with temperature increase along NW Mediterranean continental coasts. A 3D regional ocean model was used to obtain the temperature conditions for the period 2001–2010, for which the model outputs were validated by comparing them with in situ observations in affected areas. The model was globally satisfactory, although extremes were underestimated and required correction. Combined with information on the thermo-tolerance of a key species (the red gorgonian P. clavata) as well as its spatial distribution, the modelled temperature conditions were then used to assess the risk of mass mortality associated with thermal stress for the first time. Most of the known areas of observed mass mortality were found using the model, although the degree of risk in certain areas was underestimated. Using climatic IPCC scenarios, the methodology could be applied to explore the impacts of expected climate change in the NW Mediterranean. This is a key issue for the development of sound management and conservation plans to protect Mediterranean marine biodiversity in the face of climate change.     

松辽盆地长岭断陷中基性火山岩的时代与其成因

锆石U-Pb定年结果显示,松辽盆地长岭断陷松南180井中基性火山岩形成于101～116 Ma的早白垩世晚期,属于营城组,非火石岭组火山岩。岩相学观察主要由安山岩和橄榄玄武岩组成,化学成分显示为玄武岩、粗面玄武岩和玄武质粗面安山岩,属碱性系列,镁质量分数较低,镁值较小（Mg^#=0.27~0.53）。稀土元素总量较高（w（∑REE）=（164.98~257.27）×10^-6）,轻重稀土分馏明显（（La/Yb）_N=6.60~10.96）,铕异常微弱（δEu=0.85~1.02）。富集大离子亲石元素和轻稀土元素, Rb,K 相对亏损,相容元素（Cr、Co、Ni）质量分数低,高场强元素Nb、Ta弱富集,整体表现出与 OIB(洋岛玄武岩)一致的稀土图谱和微量元素特征。岩浆源区为软流圈地幔,经历了深部地幔流体的交代富集作用,岩浆未遭受地壳物质的混染。     

Wave Propagation Modeling and Amplitude-Variation-with-Offset Response in a Fractured Coalbed

Coalbed methane can be detected employing the amplitudevariation-with-offset technique. However, there are two issues in applying this technique to a coalbed: strong azimuthal anisotropy resulting from high-density fractures, and the seismic response being composed of many or several individual reflections within the coalbed. To overcome these difficulties, we present an exact solution for reflections in extensive dilatancy anisotropy media. First, we build a three-layer model and simulate the wave propagation in this model. Then we derive an exact P- and converted S-wave reflection coefficient equation based on boundary conditions. Finally, substituting given model parameters into the exact equation, we obtain the variation in the reflection coefficient with incidence angle. The results show that the fracture factors, wavelet frequency and thickness of the coalbed have different effects on the reflection coefficient. Furthermore, we create a synthetic seismogram by forward calculation, and the result fits well with results of the exact equation.     

Coupled ‘storm‐flood’ depositional model: Application to the Miocene–Modern Baram Delta Province,north‐west Borneo

The Miocene to Modern Baram Delta Province is a highly efficient source to sink system that has accumulated 9 to 12 km of coastal–deltaic to shelf sediments over the past 15 Myr. Facies analysis based on ca 1 km of total vertical outcrop stratigraphy, combined with subsurface geology and sedimentary processes in the present‐day Baram Delta Province, suggests a ‘storm‐flood’ depositional model comprising two distinct periods: (i) fair‐weather periods are dominated by alongshore sediment reworking and coastal sand accumulation; and (ii) monsoon‐driven storm periods are characterized by increased wave‐energy and offshore‐directed downwelling storm flow that occur simultaneously with peak fluvial discharge caused by storm precipitation (‘storm‐floods’). The modern equivalent environment has the following characteristics: (i) humid‐tropical monsoonal climate; (ii) narrow (ca <100 km) and steep (ca 1°), densely vegetated, coastal plain; (iii) deep tropical weathering of a mudstone‐dominated hinterland; (iv) multiple independent, small to moderate‐sized (10² to 10⁵ km²) drainage basins; (v) predominance of river‐mouth bypassing; and (vi) supply‐dominated shelf. The ancient, proximal part of this system (the onshore Belait Formation) is dominated by strongly cyclical sandier‐upward successions (metre to decametre‐scale) comprising (from bottom to top): (i) finely laminated mudstone with millimetre‐scale silty laminae; (ii) heterolithic sandstone–mudstone alternations (centimetre to metre‐scale); and (iii) sharp‐based, swaley cross‐stratified sandstone beds and bedsets (metre to decimetre‐scale). Gutter casts (decimetre to metre‐scale) are widespread, they are filled with swaley cross‐stratified sandstone and their long axes are oriented perpendicular to the palaeo‐shoreline. The gutter casts and other associated waning‐flow event beds suggest that erosion and deposition was controlled by high‐energy, offshore‐directed, oscillatory‐dominated, sediment‐laden combined flows within a shoreface to delta front setting. The presence of multiple river mouths and exceptionally high rates of accommodation creation (characteristic of the Neogene to Recent Baram Delta Province; up to 3000 m Ma⁻¹), in a ‘storm‐flood’‐dominated environment, resulted in a highly efficient and effective offshore‐directed sediment transport system.     

From outwash to coastal systems in the Portneuf–Forestville deltaic complex (Québec North Shore): Anatomy of a forced regressive deglacial sequence

Deglacial sequences typically include backstepping grounding zone wedges and prevailing glaciomarine depositional facies. However, in coastal domains, deglacial sequences are dominated by depositional systems ranging from turbiditic to fluvial facies. Such deglacial sequences are strongly impacted by glacio‐isostatic rebound, the rate and amplitude of which commonly outpaces those of post‐glacial eustatic sea‐level rise. This results in a sustained relative sea‐level fall covering the entire depositional time interval. This paper examines a Late Quaternary, forced regressive, deglacial sequence located on the North Shore of the St. Lawrence Estuary (Portneuf Peninsula, Québec, Canada) and aims to decipher the main controls that governed its stratigraphic architecture. The forced regressive deglacial sequence forms a thick (>100 m) and extensive (>100 km²) multiphased deltaic complex emplaced after the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet margin from the study area ca 12 500 years ago. The sedimentary succession is composed of ice‐contact, glaciomarine, turbiditic, deltaic, fluvial and coastal depositional units. A four‐stage development is recognized: (i) an early ice‐contact stage (esker, glaciomarine mud and outwash fan); (ii) an in‐valley progradational stage (fjord head or moraine‐dammed lacustrine deltas) fed by glacigenics; (iii) an open‐coast deltaic progradation, when proglacial depositional systems expanded beyond the valley outlets and merged together; and (iv) a final stage of river entrenchment and shallow marine reworking that affected the previously emplaced deltaic complex. Most of the sedimentary volume (10 to 15 km³) was emplaced during the three‐first stages over a ca 2 kyr interval. In spite of sustained high rates of relative sea‐level fall (50 to 30 mm·year^?1), delta plain accretion occurred up to the end of the proglacial open‐coast progradational stage. River entrenchment only occurred later, after a significant decrease in the relative sea‐level fall rates (<30 mm·year^?1), and was concurrent with the formation and preservation of extensive coastal deposits (raised beaches, spit platform and barrier sands). The turnaround from delta plain accretion to river entrenchment and coastal erosion is interpreted to be a consequence of the retreat of the ice margin from the river drainage basins that led to the drastic drop of sediment supply and the abrupt decrease in progradation rates. The main internal stratigraphic discontinuity within the forced regressive deglacial sequence does not reflect changes in relative sea‐level variations.