La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.     

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation over Greenland

A simulation of the 1991 summer has been performed over south Greenland with a coupled atmosphere–snow regional climate model (RCM) forced by the ECMWF re-analysis. The simulation is evaluated with in-situ coastal and ice-sheet atmospheric and glaciological observations. Modelled air temperature, specific humidity, wind speed and radiative fluxes are in good agreement with the available observations, although uncertainties in the radiative transfer scheme need further investigation to improve the model’s performance. In the sub-surface snow-ice model, surface albedo is calculated from the simulated snow grain shape and size, snow depth, meltwater accumulation, cloudiness and ice albedo. The use of snow metamorphism processes allows a realistic modelling of the temporal variations in the surface albedo during both melting periods and accumulation events. Concerning the surface albedo, the main finding is that an accurate albedo simulation during the melting season strongly depends on a proper initialization of the surface conditions which mainly result from winter accumulation processes. Furthermore, in a sensitivity experiment with a constant 0.8 albedo over the whole ice sheet, the average amount of melt decreased by more than 60%, which highlights the importance of a correctly simulated surface albedo. The use of this coupled atmosphere–snow RCM offers new perspectives in the study of the Greenland surface mass balance due to the represented feedback between the surface climate and the surface albedo, which is the most sensitive parameter in energy-balance-based ablation calculations.     

Chemistry of rainwater in the Massif Central (France): a strontium isotope and major element study

Atmospheric aerosols (sea salt, crustal dust, and biogenic aerosols) are the primary source of dissolved species in rainwater as well as one of the sources of dissolved species in river water. Chemical weathering studies require quantification of this atmospheric input. The crustal component of atmospheric input can have various origins, both distant and local. The proportions of the various inputs (marine, distant or local) are determined in this study.Strontium isotope ratios and Ca, Na, K, Mg, Al, Cl, SO₄, NO₃ and Sr concentrations were measured in rainwater samples collected in the Massif Central (France) over a period of one year. Each sample, collected automatically, represents a monthly series of rain events. Chemical composition of the rainwater samples varied considerably and the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios ranged between 0.709198 and 0.713143.Using Na as an indicator of marine origin, and Al for the crustal input in rain samples, the proportion of marine and crustal elements was estimated from elemental ratios. A marine origin of 4 to 100% of Cl, of 0.6 to 20% of the SO₄, of <1 to 10% of Ca, <1 to 40% of K, 4 to 100% of Mg and 1 to 44% of Sr was determined.Strontium isotopes were used to characterize the crustal sources. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of the crustal sources varied considerably from 0.7092 to 0.71625 and indicate the occurrence of multiple sources for the crustal component in the analysed rainwaters.     

Estimating Long-Term Solar Irradiance Variability: A New Approach

The detection of solar irradiance variations (both bolometric and at various wavelengths) by satellite-based experiments during the last one-and-a-half decades stimulated modeling efforts to help identify their causes and to provide estimates of irradiance data for those time intervals when no satellite observations exist. In this paper we present estimates of the long-term irradiance changes developed with Fourier and wavelet transforms. The month-to-month irradiance variations, after removing the solar cycle related long-term changes, are studied with the cross-correlation technique. Results of the analysis reveal a significant phase shift at 3 months between the full-disk magnetic field strength and total solar and UV irradiance, with irradiance leading the magnetic field variability. In addition to this time delay between the changes in solar irradiance and the magnetic field, a 10-month phase shift has been found between the UV flux at 280 nm and total solar irradiance corrected for sunspot darkening. The existence of these phase shifts suggests the possibility of a coupling between the physical processes taking place below, in, and above the photosphere.     

Present limitations of accurate satellite Doppler positioning for tectonics. An example: Djibouti

One of the possibilities of the Doppler positioning from satellite is to provide geodetic measurements continuous in time without the need for reference stations. If measurements of sufficient accuracy can be achieved they may be used to study local surface displacements in relation to tectonic activity. A Doppler receiver of the MEDOC network is located near Djibouti in the Ghoubhat-Asal rift region which corresponds to the accreting plate boundary between the Arabian and African plates. In November 1978, a seismic and volcanic crisis occured in this area. Surface geodetic measurements and levellings performed in 1973 and 1978–79, just after the crisis, reveal a 60–80 cm sinking of the graben floor and a lateral extension of about 2 meters. Here we analyse Doppler measurements for the period January 1977 to November 1980. Point positions are computed for 7 to 10 day intervals using a precise ephemeris, and a moving window analysis is applied to the data. An apparent 2 meter uplift preceding the November 1978 seismic crisis is detected at Djibouti, whereas no similar phenomenon is observed at the two closest stations, Pretoria and Uccle-Brussels. However, field observations rule out a tectonic origin for this uplift. In Djibouti, the correlation between the apparent vertical station position and the electron density in the ionospheric F-layer reveals that a bias may be induced by the third order term of the ionospheric refractive index not previously taken into account, or more probably by the ray curvature through the ionosphere. This bias is particularly strong for our data set, from a station located close to the magnetic equator, and related to a period of rapid increase in the solar activity. Although our analysis fails to detect any tectonic displacement related to the rift seismic activity, it shows that similar tectonic studies by the Doppler method will be possible once the residual ionospheric errors are removed, for example by use of higher radio frequencies.     

Fluid migration at the basement/sediment interface along the margin of the Southeast basin (France): implications for Pb–Zn ore formation

This study investigates the isotopic composition (C, O, S and Sr) of carbonates, sulphates and sulphide cements in the rock matrix and fracture fillings in geological formations of the Southeast basin of France, using core samples collected during the Deep Geology of France programme (GPF Ardèche theme). The Southeast basin belongs to the Alpine Tethyan margin. It is one of the thickest sedimentary basins in Europe, reaching upwards of 9 km in certain locations. The main fluid transfer from the basin is related to the large Pb–Zn Mississippi Valley-type district along the southern margin of the Massif Central block. A synthesis of the tectonic, mineralogical and petrographic investigations on the GPF boreholes shows that a major fluid circulation event occurred across the Alpine margin of Tethys during the Early Jurassic (Hettangian–Bathonian). It produced a general cementation of the rock porosity through precipitation of dolomite, sulphate and barite. Fracture fillings yield isotopic signatures distinct from the matrix cements. Matrix cements have particular characteristics, i.e. δ³⁴S and δ¹³C that agree with a marine origin. The δ³⁴S values of Permo-Carboniferous to Triassic sulphides from fracture cements are interpreted as resulting from the thermo-chemical reduction of sulphates. Fracture sulphates in the same geological formations yield δ³⁴S values that define a relatively homogeneous end-member, whose composition is similar to sulphates in the Largentière Pb–Zn ore deposit. The source of S is attributed to the Permo-Carboniferous succession. The borehole fracture fillings are attributed to a major fluid circulation stage compatible with the Early Jurassic stage identified from the geological investigation of the boreholes. The formation of the Largentière deposit is considered as resulting from the mixing of this Early Jurassic fluid with continental hydrothermal fluids circulating in a basement horst, along its margin with the sedimentary basin. Other Pb–Zn deposits may also be related to fluid migration along the basement/sedimentary cover interface in the eastern and western parts of the Massif Central. This regional fluid circulation event may represent a geodynamic marker of the Jurassic extensional phase.     

A note of caution when interpreting parameters of the distribution of excesses

In climatology and hydrology, univariate Extreme Value Theory has become a powerful tool to model the distribution of extreme events. The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is routinely applied to model excesses in space or time by letting the two GPD parameters depend on appropriate covariates. Two possible pitfalls of this strategy are the modeling and the interpretation of the scale and shape GPD parameters estimates which are often and incorrectly viewed as independent variables. In this note we first recall a statistical technique that makes the GPD estimates less correlated within a Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation approach. In a second step we propose novel reparametrizations for two method-of-moments particularly popular in hydrology: the Probability Weighted Moment (PWM) method and its generalized version (GPWM). Finally these three inference methods (ML, PWM and GPWM) are compared and discussed with respect to the issue of correlations.     

Correlations and sequence stratigraphic model for Messinian carbonate platforms of the western and central Mediterranean

Distance correlations of Late Tortonian–Messinian littoral carbonate complexes are proposed from the study of eight platforms in the western and central Mediterranean. Correlations are based on the identification of two major biological sedimentary cycles and of two index surfaces. Surface A is a maximum flooding surface during cycle 1 at around 6.7 Ma. Surface B is a regional marine planation surface at around 5.95 Ma, at the base of cycle 2 (Terminal Carbonate Complex). A general sedimentary model is proposed for the 7–5.6-Ma time-span. The boundary between cycles 1 and 2 is coincident with the onset of the Messinian Salinity Crisis, and appears to be related to major environmental–paleo-oceanographic changes in the Mediterranean, rather than to a major sea-level drop or to climatic change.     

Integrated river basin management, ICT and DSS: Challenges and needs

River basin management is a complex task. Therefore, instruments that help to assess the present situation and assist in the development and evaluation of solutions may be important. Since several decades and after the implementation of the first compulsory legal environments and institutional organizations for IWRM and IRBM, the need for an efficient support in the different decision-making processes has emerged. After several experiences, the demonstration of the interest of ICT and DSS systems is obvious in the water resources management domain. However and until now, most of the efforts have been focused on the theoretical aspects with very few integrations into operational approaches. The implementation of the new European water framework directive (2000) represents today one key example from which some lessons can be learned in the way of definition and use of ICT and DSS systems for IWRM and IRBM. The paper presents the concepts available through ICT and DSS. The example of the WFD is used to underline the challenges and the difficulties for the elaboration of new tools - DSSs - which could be able to answer of the challenges of IWRM and IRBM.     

The Hospitalet gneiss dome (Pyrenees) revisited: lateral flow during Variscan transpression in the middle crust

A new structural and kinematic study of the Hospitalet dome (Pyrenees) is presented. This dome corresponds to the eastern half of an EW‐trending antiformal structure made of an orthogneissic core intruded by granitoids, partly covered by Upper Proterozoic to Lower Ordovician metapelites. Its Variscan evolution can be split into four stages: (i) development of a strong high temperature pervasive deformation associated with subhorizontal foliations and lineations, and with non‐coaxial top‐to‐the‐east kinematics; (ii) formation of a south‐verging overturned megafold; (iii) emplacement of calc‐alkaline granitoids; and (iv) formation of mylonitic bands on the southern border of the dome, with reverse dextral kinematics. The flat lying pervasive high‐T deformation is interpreted as a large lateral flow developed in a dextral transpressive regime inducing an important uncoupling between the middle and upper crusts. The next stages happened in a progressive deformation in the same transpressive regime.