Natural hazards in Nordic Countries

Compared to many areas of the world, the human losses caused by natural hazards are smaller in Nordic countries. This is mainly due to the low population density in the exposed areas. However, the economic losses are significant and the geohazards picture varies among the countries. The predominant natural hazards in Nordic countries are floods, landslides, and, with the exception of Denmark, snow avalanche. Volcanoes and earthquakes are major geohazards in Iceland, and parts of Norway are susceptible to seismic activity. Slidetriggered tsunamis also represent a threat to parts of the coastal areas of Nordic countries and Greenland.     

Global Radiation and Onset of Stratification as Forcing Factors of Seasonal Carbonate and Organic Matter Flux Dynamics in a Hypertrophic Hardwater Lake (Sacrower See,Northeastern Germany)

A 2-year (October 2003–October 2005) high-resolution sediment trap study was conducted in Sacrower See, a dimictic hardwater lake in northeastern Germany. Geochemical and diatom data from sediment trap samples were compared with a broad range of limnological and meteorological parameters to quantify the impact of single parameters on biochemical calcite precipitation and organic matter production. Our goals were to disentangle how carbonaceous varves and their sublaminae form during the annual cycle to better understand the palaeorecords and to detect influences of dissolution, resuspension as well as of global radiation and stratification on lake internal particle formation. Total particle fluxes in both investigated years were highest during spring and summer. Sedimentation was dominated by autochthonous organic matter and biochemically precipitated calcite. Main calcite precipitation occurred between April and July and was preceded and followed by smaller flux peaks caused by resuspension during winter and blooms of the calcified green algae Phacotus lenticularis during summer. In some of the trap intervals during summer up to 100% of the precipitated calcite was dissolved in the hypolimnion. High primary production due to stable insolation conditions in epilimnic waters began with stratification of the water column. Start and development of stratification is closely related to air and water surface temperatures. It is assumed that global radiation influences the onset and stability of water column stratification and thereby determining the intensity of primary production and consequently of timing and amount of calcite precipitation which is triggered by phytoplanktonic CO₂ consumption. Sediment fluxes of organic matter and calcite are also related to the winter NAO-Index. Therefore these fluxes will be used as a proxy for ongoing reconstruction of Holocene climate conditions.     

Landslide impacts in Germany: A historical and socioeconomic perspective

Landslide impacts on infrastructure and society in the Federal Republic of Germany are associated with damage costs of about US$300 million on annual average. Despite the large overall losses due to widespread landslide activity, there is a lack of historical impact assessments, not just for Germany’s low mountain areas but those of entire Central Europe as well. This paper is a collection of three case studies from Germany that seek a better understanding of landslide impacts and their economic relevance at local and regional level. The first case study investigates damage types and mitigation measures at a representative landslide site in ways that support to gain insight into historical hazard interactions with land use practices. This case history is followed by a case study dealing with fiscal cost impacts of landslide damages for an example city and the highway system of the Lower Saxon Uplands, NW Germany. In addition to a cost-burden analysis for affected public budgets, an overview of the principles of disaster financing in landslide practice is given. The third case study is focused on the conflicts of urban development in hazard areas, with an economic approach to balancing safety and public welfare interests. Each case study is based on historical data sets extracted from Germany’s national landslide database. This paper presents three different case studies that in combination are a first step towards assessing landslide impacts in integrated perspective.     

The false Basel earthquake of May 12, 1021

The Basel (CH) area is a place with an increased seismic hazard. Consequently, it is essential to scrutinize a famous statement by Stumpf (Gemeiner loblicher Eydgnoschafft Stetten, Landen und Völckeren Chronikwirdiger thaaten beschreybung. Durch Johann Stumpffen beschriben, 1548) that allegedly a large earthquake took place in Basel in 1021. This can be disproved unambiguously by applying historical and philosophical methods.     

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2011

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2011. During this period, 522 earthquakes and 92 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. With a total of only 10 events with M _L????2.5, the seismic activity in the year 2011 was far below the average over the previous 36?years. Most noteworthy were the earthquake sequence of Sierre (VS) in January, with two events of M _L 3.3 and 3.2, the M _L 3.3 earthquake at a depth of 31?km below Bregenz, and the M _L 3.1 event near Delémont. The two strongest events near Sierre produced shaking of intensity IV.     

Chemical changes in fluid composition due to CO2 injection in the Altmark gas field: preliminary results from batch experiments

Dissolution?Cprecipitation phenomena induced by CO₂ injection to Altmark Permian sandstone were observed through laboratory experiments carried out under simulated reservoir conditions (125?°C and 50 bars of pressure). The rock sample was collected from the Altmark gas reservoir, which is being considered for enhanced gas recovery. Two sets of experiments were performed with pulverized rock samples in a closed batch reactor with either pure water (run 1) or 3?M aqueous NaCl solution (run 2) and reacted with injected CO₂ for 3, 5, and 9?days. The liquid samples were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy and total reflection X-ray fluorescence, where the latter proved to be a feasible alternative to conventional analytical techniques, especially since only small sample volumes (about 10???l) are needed. Chemical analysis for both fluids (water and NaCl brine) indicated a significant dissolution of calcite and anhydrite in the solution, which might be a crucial process during CO₂ injection. The brine solution enhanced the dissolution of calcite and anhydrite compared to pure water at the beginning of the reaction. Moreover, the progressive higher Si⁴⁺/Al³⁺ molar ratios (in average by a factor of 3) in the brine experiments indicated quartz dissolution. Thermodynamic calculations of mineral saturation indices highlighted the dissolution of the Ca-bearing minerals, which was in agreement with experimental results. Modeling enabled an evaluation of the dissolution processes of minerals in a low-salinity region, yet hindrances to model more saline conditions emphasize the need for further laboratory studies in order to parameterize models for deep aquifer conditions.     

Fall,classification, and exposure history of the Mifflin L5 chondrite

The Mifflin meteorite fell on the night of April 14, 2010, in southwestern Wisconsin. A bright fireball was observed throughout a wide area of the midwestern United States. The petrography, mineral compositions, and oxygen isotope ratios indicate that the meteorite is a L5 chondrite fragmental breccia with light/dark structure. The meteorite shows a low shock stage of S2, although some shock‐melted veins are present. The U,Th‐He age is 0.7 Ga, and the K‐Ar age is 1.8 Ga, indicating that Mifflin might have been heated at the time of the 470 Ma L‐chondrite parent body breakup and that U, Th‐He, and K‐Ar ages were partially reset. The cosmogenic radionuclide data indicate that Mifflin was exposed to cosmic rays while its radius was 30–65 cm. Assuming this exposure geometry, a cosmic‐ray exposure age of 25 ± 3 Ma is calculated from cosmogenic noble gas concentrations. The low ²²Ne/²¹Ne ratio may, however, indicate a two‐stage exposure with a longer first‐stage exposure at high shielding. Mifflin is unusual in having a low radiogenic gas content combined with a low shock stage and no evidence of late stage annealing; this inconsistency remains unexplained.     

The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE

This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS.     

Mediterranean climate extremes in synoptic downscaling assessments

The behaviour of precipitation and maximum temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area under climate change conditions is analysed in the present study. In this context, the ability of synoptic downscaling techniques in combination with extreme value statistics for dealing with extremes is investigated. Analyses are based upon a set of long-term station time series in the whole Mediterranean area. At first, a station-specific ensemble approach for model validation was developed which includes (1) the downscaling of daily precipitation and maximum temperature values from the large-scale atmospheric circulation via analogue method and (2) the fitting of extremes by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Model uncertainties are quantified as confidence intervals derived from the ensemble distributions of GPD-related return values and described by a new metric called “ratio of overlapping”. Model performance for extreme precipitation is highest in winter, whereas the best models for maximum temperature extremes are set up in autumn. Valid models are applied to a 30-year period at the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) by means of ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model data for IPCC SRES B1 scenario. The most distinctive future changes are observed in autumn in terms of a strong reduction of precipitation extremes in Northwest Iberia and the Northern Central Mediterranean area as well as a simultaneous distinct increase of maximum temperature extremes in Southwestern Iberia and the Central and Southeastern Mediterranean regions. These signals are checked for changes in the underlying dynamical processes using extreme-related circulation classifications. The most important finding connected to future changes of precipitation extremes in the Northwestern Mediterranean area is a reduction of southerly displaced deep North Atlantic cyclones in 2070–2099 as associated with a strengthened North Atlantic Oscillation. Thus, the here estimated future changes of extreme precipitation are in line with the discourse about the influence of North Atlantic circulation variability on the changing climate in Europe.