Long Term Evolution of Solar Meridional Circulation and Phase Synchronization Viewed Through a Symmetrical Kuramoto Model

The solar-cycle oscillations of the toroidal and poloidal components of the solar magnetic field in the northern solar hemisphere have a persistent phase difference of about \(\pi \). We propose a symmetrical Kuramoto model with three coupled oscillators as a simple way to understand this anti-synchronization. We solve an inverse problem and reconstruct natural frequencies of the top and bottom oscillators under the conditions of a constant coupling strength and a non-delayed coupling. These natural frequencies are associated with angular velocities of the meridional flow circulation near the solar surface and in the deep layer of the solar convection zone. A relationship between our reconstructions of the shallow and the deep meridional flow speed during recent Solar Cycles 21?–?23 is in agreement with estimates obtained in helioseismology and flux-transport dynamo modeling. The reconstructed top oscillator speed presents significant solar-cycle like variations that agree with recent helioseismical reconstructions. The evolution of reconstructed natural frequencies strongly depends on the coupling strength. We find two stable regimes in the case of strong coupling with a change of regime during anomalous solar cycles. We see the onset of a new transition in Solar Cycle 24. We estimate the admitted range of coupling values and find evidence of cross-equatorial coupling between solar hemispheres not accounted for by the model.     

Spectrophotometric variability of the magnetic CP star 56 Arietis in spectral region from 1950 to 3200 Å

We presented a phenomenological mode that attributes the precession of perihelion of planets to the relativistic correction. This modifies Newton’s equation by adding an inversely cube term with distance. The total energy of the new system is found to be the same as the Newtonian one. Moreover, we have deduced the deflection of light formula from Rutherford scattering. The relativistic term can be accounted for quantum correction of the gravitational potential and/or self energy of objects.     

High-resolution climate variability of southwest China during 57-70 ka reflected in a stalagmite δ18O record from Xinya Cave

A 26-cm-long stalagmite (XY2) from Xinya Cave in northeastern Chongqing of China has been ICP-MS ²³⁰Th/U dated, showing a depositional hiatus at 2.3 cm depth from the top. The growth of the 2.3–26 cm interval determined by four dates was between 57 ka and 70 ka, with a linear growth rate of 0.023 mm/a. We have analyzed 190 samples for δ ¹⁸O and δ ¹³C, mostly in the 2.3–26 cm part. The δ ¹⁸O and δ ¹³C values between 57 ka and 70 ka reveal decadal-to-centennial climatic variability during the glacial interval of Marine Isotope Stage 4 (MIS4), exhibiting much higher resolution than that of the published Hulu and Dongge records during this interval. Speleothem δ ¹⁸O in eastern China, including our study area can be used as a proxy of summer monsoon strength, with lighter values pointing to stronger summer monsoon and higher precipitation, and vice versa. Two decreases in the δ ¹⁸O signature of XY2 record around 59.5 and 64.5 Ka are argued to correspond to the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events 17 and 18 respectively. The Heinrich event 6 (H6) can be identified in the record as a heavy δ ¹⁸O peak around 60 ka, indicating significant weakening of the monsoon in Chongqing during the cold period. The XY2 δ ¹⁸O record shows very rapid change toward to the interstadial condition of the D-O event, but more gradual change toward to the cold stadial condition. This phenomenon found in the Greenland ice core records is rarely observed so clearly in previously published speleothem records. According to SPECMAP δ ¹⁸O record, the glacial maximum of MIS 4 was around 64.5 ka with the boundary of MIS 3/4 around 60 ka. Unlike the marine record, the speleothem record of XY2, China, exhibits much high frequency variations without an apparent glacial maximum during MIS 4. However, the timing of MIS 3/4 boundary seems to be around 60 ka when the H6 terminated, in agreement with the marine chronology. The growth period of sample XY2 during glacial times probably reflects a local karstic routing of water, rather than having climatic significance. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40672165, 90511004, 40672202) and the Academician Special Project of Chongqing Science Committee (Grant No. 2003-7835)     

Monitoring ionospheric scintillations and TEC at the Polish Polar Station on Spitsbergen: instrumentation and preliminary results

As a partial contribution to the International Polar Year, the Space Research Centre of the Polish Academy of Sciences has installed on the Polish Polar Station, located in the region of the Hornsund Bay in southern Spitsbergen, the equipment intended to monitor ionospheric scintillation and total electron content. We describe the equipment setup and the aims of the experiment. As an illustration of data analysis, we present the reconstruction of irregular structure of the ionosphere from the complex amplitude data, and the estimate of the form and drift of diffraction pattern based on the spaced receiver measurements.     

Numerical study on transient harbor oscillations induced by successive solitary waves

Tsunamis are traveling waves which are characterized by long wavelengths and large amplitudes close to the shore. Due to the transformation of tsunamis, undular bores have been frequently observed in the coastal zone and can be viewed as a sequence of solitary waves with different wave heights and different separation distances among them. In this article, transient harbor oscillations induced by incident successive solitary waves are first investigated. The transient oscillations are simulated by a fully nonlinear Boussinesq model, FUNWAVE-TVD. The incident successive solitary waves include double solitary waves and triple solitary waves. This paper mainly focuses on the effects of different waveform parameters of the incident successive solitary waves on the relative wave energy distribution inside the harbor. These wave parameters include the incident wave height, the relative separation distance between adjacent crests, and the number of elementary solitary waves in the incident wave train. The relative separation distance between adjacent crests is defined as the ratio of the distance between adjacent crests in the incident wave train to the effective wavelength of the single solitary wave. Maximum oscillations inside the harbor excited by various incident waves are also discussed. For comparison, the transient oscillation excited by the single solitary wave is also considered. The harbor used in this paper is assumed to be long and narrow and has constant depth; the free surface movement inside the harbor is essentially one-dimensional. This study reveals that, for the given harbor and for the variation ranges of all the waveform parameters of the incident successive solitary waves studied in this paper, the larger incident wave heights and the smaller number of elementary solitary waves in the incident tsunami lead to a more uniform relative wave energy distribution inside the harbor. For the successive solitary waves, the larger relative separation distance between adjacent crests can cause more obvious fluctuations of the relative wave energy distribution over different resonant modes. When the wave height of the elementary solitary wave in the successive solitary waves equals to that of the single solitary wave and the relative separation distance between adjacent crests is equal to or greater than 0.6, the maximum oscillation inside the harbor induced by the successive solitary waves is almost identical to that excited by the single solitary wave.     

Landslide monitoring in southwestern China via time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography

The dynamic monitoring of landslides in engineering geology has focused on the correlation among landslide stability, rainwater infiltration, and subsurface hydrogeology. However, the understanding of this complicated correlation is still poor and inadequate. Thus, in this study, we investigated a typical landslide in southwestern China via time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (TLERT) in November 2013 and August 2014. We studied landslide mechanisms based on the spatiotemporal characteristics of surface water infiltration and flow within the landslide body. Combined with borehole data, inverted resistivity models accurately defined the interface between Quaternary sediments and bedrock. Preferential flow pathways attributed to fracture zones and fissures were also delineated. In addition, we found that surface water permeates through these pathways into the slipping mass and drains away as fissure water in the fractured bedrock, probably causing the weakly weathered layer to gradually soften and erode, eventually leading to a landslide. Clearly, TLERT dynamic monitoring can provide precursory information of critical sliding and can be used in landslide stability analysis and prediction.     

Mapping the thickness of sediments in the Ljubljana Moor basin (Slovenia) using microtremors

The Ljubljana Moor basin is characterized by moderate bedrock topography and thicknesses of Quaternary lacustrine and fluvial sediments ranging from 0 to 200 m. More than 65 boreholes which reached the bedrock were drilled in the area, but their distribution in the basin is very uneven and some data from the boreholes uncertain. There are also no data on S-velocity distribution within the basin, but seismic refraction measurements pointed out a rather uniform increase of P-velocity with depth, great impedance contrast with the bedrock and relatively small lateral velocity variations. The microtremor horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method was therefore applied as a complementary tool to seismic refraction survey to map the thickness of sediments. First, microtremors were measured at the locations of boreholes which reached the bedrock and the resonance frequencies determined. The inverse power relationship between the resonance frequency and the thickness of sediments was then determined from 53 data pairs. The quality of the correlation is moderate due to possible heterogeneities in sediments and possible 3D effects in some minor areas, but the obtained parameters correspond well to the values obtained in six other European basins. Secondly, a 16 km-long discontinuous seismic refraction profile was measured across the whole basin, leaving uncovered some larger segments where active seismic measurements were not possible. Microtremors were then measured at 64 locations along the same profile, using 250 m point spacing, without leaving any gaps. The frequency–thickness relationship was used to invert resonance frequencies to depths. These were first validated using the results of the seismic refraction survey, which showed good agreement, and finally used for interpolation in the segments of missing refraction data to obtain a continuous depth profile of the bedrock. The study has shown that the microtremor method can be used as a complementary tool for mapping the thickness of unconsolidated sediments also in areas characterized by moderate bedrock topography. As the input data are always to some extent uncertain, it is important to have a sufficiently large number of borehole data to establish a frequency–thickness relationship, as well as some additional independent geophysical information for its validation.     

The logistics of household hurricane evacuation

Although there is a substantial amount of research on households’ hurricane evacuation decision making, there is much less research on the logistical issues involved in implementing those evacuations. The limited research on household evacuation logistics has consistently shown that most evacuees stay in the homes of friends and relatives or in commercial facilities rather than in public shelters. However, evacuation logistics—which can be defined as the activities and associated resources needed to reach a safe location and remain there until it is safe to return—encompasses a much broader range of behaviors than this. The present study extends previous research by reporting data on other aspects of evacuation logistics such as departure timing, vehicle use, evacuation routes, travel distance, shelter type, evacuation duration, and evacuation cost. Hurricane Lili evacuation data at the county level are generally consistent with the data from previous hurricanes, but there is notable variation across counties studied here. There were only modest correlations of demographic and geographic variables with the evacuation logistics variables, a result that indicates further research is needed to better understand what happens between the time an evacuation decision is made and the time re-entry is begun. Moreover, research is needed to understand the logistics of evacuation by special populations such as transients and households with disabled members.     

First-order regional seismotectonic model for South Africa

A first-order seismotectonic model was created for South Africa. This was done using four logical steps: geoscientific data collection, characterisation, assimilation and zonation. Through the definition of subunits of concentrations of earthquake foci and large neotectonic and structural domains, seismotectonic structures, systems and domains were created. Relatively larger controls of seismicity exist between the Great Escarpment and the coast. In the south, this region is characterised by large aeromagnetic anomalies and large EW trending faults. In the west, it is characterised by the NW–SE trending Wegener stress anomaly, radial-trending dykes and earthquake clusters. In the east, it is characterised by a large neotectonic domain where several large historical earthquakes occurred. In the centre of South Africa, several clusters of earthquake activity are found, often related to mining activity. Further north, seismicity is related to both mining activity and neotectonic deformation. This work contributes to the development of a seismotectonic model for South Africa by (1) bringing together, digitally, several data sets in a common GIS platform (geology, geophysics, stress, seismicity, neotectonics, topography, crustal and mantle structure and anisotropy), (2) understanding the significance of data sets for seismotectonic zonation and limitations thereof and (3) obtaining a reasonable regional model for use in seismic hazard assessments.