Using Decision Analysis to Include Climate Change in Water Resources Decision Making

Is the prospect of possible climate change relevant to water resources decisions being made today? And, if so, how ought that prospect be considered? These questions can be addressed by decision analysis, which we apply to two investments in the Great Lakes region: a regulatory structure for Lake Erie, and breakwaters to protect Presque Isle State Park, PA. These two decisions have the elements that potentially make climate change relevant: long lived, "one shot" investments; benefits or costs that are affected by climate-influenced variables; and irreversibilities. The decision analyses include the option of waiting to obtain better information, using Bayesian analysis to detect whether climate change has altered water supplies. The analyses find that beliefs about climate change can indeed affect optimal decisions. Furthermore, ignoring the possibility of climate change can lead to significant opportunity losses—in the cases here, as much as 10% or more of the construction cost. Yet the consequences of climate uncertainty for Great Lakes management do not appear to be qualitatively different from those of other risks, and thus do not deserve different treatment. The methods of sensitivity analysis, scenario planning, and decision analysis, all of which are encouraged under US federal guidelines for water planning, are applicable. We recommend increased use of decision trees and Bayesian analysis to consider not only climate change risks, but also other important social and environmental uncertainties.     

Geochemistry and origin of albite gneisses,northeastern Adirondack Mountains,New York

Albite gneisses containing up to 8.7 percent Na₂O and as little as 0.1% K₂O comprise a significant part of the Proterozoic Lyon Mountain Gneiss in the Ausable Forks Quadrangle of the northeastern Adirondacks, New York State. Two distinct types of albite gneisses are present. One is a trondhjemitic leucogneiss (LAG) consisting principally of albite (Ab95–Ab98) and quartz with minor magnetite and, locally, minor amounts of amphibole or acmiterich pyroxene. LAG probably originated by metamorphism of a rhyolitie or rhyodacitic ash-flow tuff with A-type geochemical affinities, following post-depositional analcitization in a saline or saline-alkaline environment. The other type is a mafic albite gneiss (MAG) containing albite and pyroxene along with 0–45 percent quartz, minor amphibole, and titanite. MAG locally displays pinstripe banding and contains albite (Ab98) megacrysts up to 5 cm across. Its precursor may have been a sediment composed of diagenetic analcite or albite, dolomite, and quartz. Both types of albite gneiss are interlayered with granitic gneisses (LMG) of variable composition derived from less altered tuffs. A potassium-rich (up to 9.7% K₂O) microcline gneiss facies may have had a protolith rich in diagenetic K feldspar. We propose that the albite gneisses and associated granitic gneisses are the granulite-facies metamorphic equivalent of a bimodal, dominantly felsic, volcanic suite with minor intercalated sediments, probably including evaporites. The volcanics were erupted in an anorogenic setting, such as an incipient or failed intracontinental rift. Deposition took place in a closed-basin, playa lake environment, where diagenetic alteration resulted in redistribution of the alkalis and strong oxidation.     

Estimating the surface wind speed over drifting pack ice from surface weather charts

Routine surface wind speed data, vital for the study of drifting pack ice, are not available for the polar oceans. Over sea, it has been demonstrated by Hasse that estimates of surface wind speed may be obtained from the geostrophic wind speed using linear formulae. Comparing estimated with observed data for six sites in Canada, it is found that the formulae may also be applied to obtain estimates of surface wind speed over pack ice.     

The impact of high altitude aircraft on the ozone layer in the stratosphere

The paper discusses the potential effects on the ozone layer of gases released by the engines of proposed high altitude supersonic aircraft. The major problem arises from the emissions of nitrogen oxides which have the potential to destroy significant quantities of ozone in the stratosphere. The magnitude of the perturbation is highly dependent on the cruise altitude of the aircraft. Furthermore, the depletion of ozone is substantially reduced when heterogeneous conversion of nitrogen oxides into nitric acid on sulfate aerosol particles is taken into account in the calculation. The sensitivity of the aerosol load on stratospheric ozone is investigated. First, the model indicates that the aerosol load induced by the SO₂ released by aircraft is increased by about 10–20% above the background aerosols at mid-high latitude of the Northern Hemisphere at 15 km for the NASA emission scenario A (the NASA emission scenarios are explained in Tables I to III). This increase in aerosol has small effects on stratospheric ozone. Second, when the aerosol load is increased following a volcanic eruption similar to the eruption of El Chichon (Mexico, April 1982), the ozone column in spring increases by as much as 9% in response to the injection of NO _x from the aircraft with the NASA emission scenario A. Finally, the modeled suggests that significant ozone depletion could result from the formation of additional polar stratospheric clouds produced by the injection of H₂O and HNO₃ by the aircraft engines.     

Particle composition and size distributions in and around a deep-pit swine operation,Ames, IA

The contribution of emissions from agricultural facilities is rapidly becoming a major concern for local and regional air quality. Characterization of particle properties such as physical size distribution and chemical composition can be valuable in understanding the processes contributing to emissions and ultimate fate of particulate matter from agricultural facilities. A measurement campaign was conducted at an Iowa, deep-pit, three-barn swine finishing facility to characterize near-source ambient particulate matter. Size-specific mass concentrations were determined using minivol samplers, with additional size distribution information obtain using optical particle counters. Particulate composition was determined via ion chromatographic analysis of the collected filters. A thermal-CO₂ elemental/organic carbon analyzer measured particulate carbon. The chemical composition and size distribution of sub-micron particles were determined via real-time aerosol mass spectrometry. Primary particulate was not found to be a major emission from the examined facility, with filter-based impactor samples showing average near-source increases (~15–50 m) in ambient PM₁₀ of 5.8 ± 2.9 μg m⁻³ above background levels. PM_2.5 also showed contribution attributable to the facility (1.7 ± 1.1 μg m⁻³). Optical particle counter analysis of the numerical size distributions showed bimodal distributions for both the upwind and downwind conditions, with maximums around 2.5 μm and below the minimum quantified diameter of 0.3 μm. The distributions showed increased numbers of coarse particles (PM₁₀) during periods when wind transport came from the barns, but the differences were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The PM₁₀ aerosols showed statistically increased concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, calcium, organic carbon, and elemental carbon when the samplers were downwind from the pig barns. Organic carbon was the major constituent of the barn-impacted particulate matter in both sub-micron (54%) and coarse size (20%) ranges. The AMS PM₁ chemical speciation showed similar species increases, with the exception of and Ca⁺², the latter not quantified by the AMS.     

社区可持续发展指标体系研究——以上海崇明为例

本文探索了在专业人员指导下的小组参与方法建立符合中国国情的社区可持续发展指标体系。研究以上海崇明为例,分析了不同社会群体对可持续发展的认识和需求,比较了不同经济发展水平、不同社会背景和不同决策层面对可持续发展的不同关注点,提出由4个核心指标、7个扩展指标和5个附加指标构成的社区可持续发展指标体系,为其他地区制订可持续发展指标体系提供了参考,并有利于实施社区发展可持续性的评估。     

A Common Reference Material for Cadmium Isotope Studies – NIST SRM 3108

Research into natural mass‐dependent stable isotope fractionation of cadmium has rapidly expanded in the past few years. Methodologies are diverse with MC‐ICP‐MS favoured by all but one laboratory, which uses thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (TIMS). To quantify the isotope fractionation and correct for instrumental mass bias, double‐spike techniques, sample‐calibrator bracketing or element doping has been used. However, easy comparison between data sets has been hampered by the multitude of in‐house Cd solutions used as zero‐delta reference in different laboratories. The lack of a suitable isotopic reference material for Cd is detrimental for progress in the long term. We have conducted a comprehensive round‐robin assay of NIST SRM 3108 and the Cd isotope offsets to commonly used in‐house reference materials. Here, we advocate NIST SRM 3108 both as an isotope standard and the isotopic reference point for Cd and encourage its use as ‘zero‐delta’ in future studies. The purity of NIST SRM 3108 was evaluated regarding isobaric and polyatomic molecular interferences, and the levels of Zn, Pd and Sn found were not significant. The isotope ratio ¹¹⁴Cd/¹¹⁰Cd for NIST SRM 3108 lies within ～ 10 ppm Da^?1 of best estimates for the Bulk Silicate Earth and is validated for all measurement technologies currently in use.     

Advances and Practices on the Research,Prevention and Control of Land Subsidence in Coastal Cities

Land subsidence severely threatens most of the coastal plains around the world where high productive industrial and agricultural activities and urban centers are concentrated. Coastal subsidence damages infrastructures and exacerbates the effect of the sea-level rise at regional scale. Although it is a well-known process, there is still much more to be improved on the monitoring, mapping and modeling of ground movements, as well as the understanding of controlling mechanisms. The International Geoscience Programme recently approved an international project (IGCP 663) aiming to bring together worldwide researchers to share expertise on subsidence processes typically occurring in coastal areas and cities, including basic research, monitoring and observation, modelling and management. In this paper, we provide the research communities and potential stakeholders with the basic information to join the participating teams in developing this project. Specifically, major advances on coastal subsidence studies and information on well-known and new case studies of land subsidence in China, Italy, The Netherlands, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand are highlighted and summarized. Meanwhile, the networking, dissemination, annual meeting and field trip are briefly introduced.     

The Falkland Islands’ palaeoecological response to millennial‐scale climate perturbations during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition: Implications for future vegetation stability in the southern ocean islands

Oceanic island flora is vulnerable to future climate warming, which is likely to promote changes in vegetation composition, and invasion of non‐native species. Sub‐Antarctic islands are predicted to experience rapid warming during the next century; therefore, establishing trajectories of change in vegetation communities is essential for developing conservation strategies to preserve biological diversity. We present a Late‐glacial‐early Holocene (16 500–6450 cal a bp ) palaeoecological record from Hooker's Point, Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas), South Atlantic. This period spans the Pleistocene‐Holocene transition, providing insight into biological responses to abrupt climate change. Pollen and plant macrofossil records appear insensitive to climatic cooling during the Late‐glacial, but undergo rapid turnover in response to regional warming. The absence of trees throughout the Late‐glacial‐early Holocene enables the recognition of far‐travelled pollen from southern South America. The first occurrence of Nothofagus (southern beech) may reflect changes in the strength and/or position of the Southern Westerly Wind Belt during the Late‐glacial period. Peat inception and accumulation at Hooker's Point is likely to be promoted by the recalcitrant litter of wind‐adapted flora. This recalcitrant litter helps to explain widespread peatland development in a comparatively dry environment, and suggests that wind‐adapted peatlands can remain carbon sinks even under low precipitation regimes. © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Quaternary Science Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.