PRODUCTIVITY RATINGS BASED ON SOIL SERIES: A METHODOLOGICAL CRITIQUE

Most regional maps of soil productivity are based on the erroneous assumption that the soil series, the fundamental taxonomic unit, is also a homogeneous unit of productivity with consistent and predictable yields when compared with other series. This assumption may lead to significant errors in estimates of potential productivity, with profound implications for prime-land delimitation, tax assessment, zoning administration, and other policies that presently rely on published soil productivity ratings.     

Copper partitioning in a melt-vapor-brine-magnetite-pyrrhotite assemblage

The effect of sulfur on the partitioning of Cu in a melt-vapor-brine ± magnetite ± pyrrhotite assemblage has been quantified at 800 °C, 140 MPa, f_O2 = nickel-nickel oxide (NNO), logf_S2=-3.0 (i.e., on the magnetite-pyrrhotite curve at NNO), logf_H2S=-1.3 and logf_SO2=-1. All experiments were vapor + brine saturated. Vapor and brine fluid inclusions were trapped in silicate glass and self-healed quartz fractures. Vapor and brine are dominated by NaCl, KCl and HCl in the S-free runs and NaCl, KCl and FeCl₂ in S-bearing runs. Pyrrhotite served as the source of sulfur in S-bearing experiments. The composition of fluid inclusions, glass and crystals were quantified by laser-ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Major element, chlorine and sulfur concentrations in glass were quantified by using electron probe microanalysis. Calculated Nernst-type partition coefficients (±2σ) for Cu between melt-vapor, melt-brine and vapor-brine are , , and , respectively, in the S-free system. The partition coefficients (±2σ) for Cu between melt-vapor, melt-brine and vapor-brine are , , and , respectively, in the S-bearing system. Apparent equilibrium constants (±1σ) describing Cu and Na exchange between vapor and melt and brine and melt were also calculated. The values of are 34 ± 21 and 128 ± 29 in the S-free and S-bearing runs, respectively. The values of are 33 ± 22 and60 ± 5 in the S-free and S-bearing runs, respectively. The data presented here indicate that the presence of sulfur increases the mass transfer of Cu into vapor from silicate melt. Further, the nearly threefold increase in suggests that Cu may be transported as both a chloride and sulfide complex in magmatic vapor, in agreement with hypotheses based on data from natural systems. Most significantly, the data demonstrate that the presence of sulfur enhances the partitioning of Cu from melt into magmatic volatile phases.     

Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

Empirical Methods for Detecting Regional Trends and Other Spatial Expressions in Antrim Shale Gas Productivity, with Implications for Improving Resource Projections Using Local Nonparametric Estimation Techniques

The primary objectives of this research were to (1) investigate empirical methods for establishing regional trends in unconventional gas resources as exhibited by historical production data and (2) determine whether or not incorporating additional knowledge of a regional trend in a suite of previously established local nonparametric resource prediction algorithms influences assessment results. Three different trend detection methods were applied to publicly available production data (well EUR aggregated to 80-acre cells) from the Devonian Antrim Shale gas play in the Michigan Basin. This effort led to the identification of a southeast–northwest trend in cell EUR values across the play that, in a very general sense, conforms to the primary fracture and structural orientations of the province. However, including this trend in the resource prediction algorithms did not lead to improved results. Further analysis indicated the existence of clustering among cell EUR values that likely dampens the contribution of the regional trend. The reason for the clustering, a somewhat unexpected result, is not completely understood, although the geological literature provides some possible explanations. With appropriate data, a better understanding of this clustering phenomenon may lead to important information about the factors and their interactions that control Antrim Shale gas production, which may, in turn, help establish a more general protocol for better estimating resources in this and other shale gas plays.     

A late glacial Antarctic climate teleconnection and variable Holocene seasonality at Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand

We present the first continuous paleolimnological reconstruction from the North Island of New Zealand (37°S) that spans the last 48.2?cal kyr. A tephra- and radiocarbon-based chronology was developed to infer the timing of marked paleolimnological changes in Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand, identified using sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility, grain size and geochemistry (carbon, nitrogen and sulphur concentrations and fluxes, carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes). Variable erosional influx, biomass and benthic REDOX conditions are linked to changing effective precipitation and seasonality within three inferred broad intervals of climatic change: (1) the Last Glacial Coldest Phase (LGCP) of reduced effective precipitation and cooler temperatures, from 28.8 to 18.0?cal kyr BP, (2) the Last Glacial Interglacial Transition (LGIT) of increasing effective precipitation and warmer conditions, from 18.0 to 10.2?cal?kyr?BP, and (3) a Holocene interval of high effective precipitation, beginning with a warm period of limited seasonality from 10.2?cal?kyr?BP and followed by increasing seasonality from 7.6?cal?kyr?BP. The LGCP and LGIT also contain millennial-scale climate events, including the coldest inferred glacial conditions during the LGCP from 27.8 to 26.0 and 22.0?C19.0?cal?kyr?BP, and a climate reversal in the LGIT associated with lower lake level, from 14.5 to 13.8?cal?kyr?BP, coeval with the Antarctic Cold Reversal. The onset of seasonal thermal stratification occurred at 5.7?cal?kyr?BP and was linked to natural eutrophication of Lake Pupuke, which produced enhanced organic sedimentation.     

Spatial and temporal temperature trends in Nigeria, 1901–2000

Trends and periodicity analyses can provide information on climate variability inherent in a particular variable. In this study, trend tests and spectral analysis are used to examine the existence of trends and cycles in temperature series (1901–2000) of Nigeria. Periods 1901–1929 and 1942–1980 exhibited cooling trends while 1930–1941 and 1981–2000 showed warming trends. The warmest years in Nigeria were 1941, 1935, 1931 and 1987. The coldest years were 1929, 1975, 1925 and 1974. Whereas no significant trends were detected for 1901–1930 period, the standard period 1931–1960 was marked by significant cooling while 1961–1990 was marked with significant warming. Annual temperature has risen by 0.03?°C/decade during the last century. The overall warming was mostly confined to the south of 12°N especially during April and June. Changes in minimum temperature are higher than that of maximum temperature. The quasi-biennial oscillation was found in annual data for all the six zones with periods of about 2–4?years. Nigeria landscape is under strong North Atlantic Oscillation influence in dry season and under ENSO influence during wet season. Annual temperature series was also found to exhibit significant negative correlation with SOI.     

Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes

Flood damage modelling has traditionally been limited to the local, regional or national scale. Recent flood events, population growth and climate change concerns have increased the need for global methods with both spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper presents a first estimation of global economic exposure to both river and coastal flooding for the period 1970–2050, using two different methods for damage assessment. One method is based on population and the second is based on land-use within areas subject to 1/100 year flood events. On the basis of population density and GDP per capita, we estimate a total global exposure to river and coastal flooding of 46 trillion USD in 2010. By 2050, these numbers are projected to increase to 158 trillion USD. Using a land-use based assessment, we estimated a total flood exposure of 27 trillion USD in 2010. For 2050 we simulate a total exposure of 80 trillion USD. The largest absolute exposure changes between 1970 and 2050 are simulated in North America and Asia. In relative terms we project the largest increases in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The models also show systematically larger growth in the population living within hazard zones compared to total population growth. While the methods unveil similar overall trends in flood exposure, there are significant differences in the estimates and geographical distribution. These differences result from inherent model characteristics and the varying relationship between population density and the total urban area in the regions of analysis. We propose further research on the modelling of inundation characteristics and flood protection standards, which can complement the methodologies presented in this paper to enable the development of a global flood risk framework.     

Future climate in the Pacific Northwest

Climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on the whole reproduce the observed seasonal cycle and twentieth century warming trend of 0.8°C (1.5°F) in the Pacific Northwest, and point to much greater warming for the next century. These models project increases in annual temperature of, on average, 1.1°C (2.0°F) by the 2020s, 1.8°C (3.2°F) by the 2040s, and 3.0°C (5.3°F) by the 2080s, compared with the average from 1970 to 1999, averaged across all climate models. Rates of warming range from 0.1°C to 0.6°C (0.2°F to 1.0°F) per decade. Projected changes in annual precipitation, averaged over all models, are small (+1% to +2%), but some models project an enhanced seasonal cycle with changes toward wetter autumns and winters and drier summers. Changes in nearshore sea surface temperatures, though smaller than on land, are likely to substantially exceed interannual variability, but coastal upwelling changes little. Rates of twenty-first century sea level rise will depend on poorly known factors like ice sheet instability in Greenland and Antarctica, and could be as low as twentieth century values (20 cm, 8^″) or as large as 1.3 m (50^″).     

Optical and near-infrared colours as a discriminant of the age and metallicity of stellar populations

We present a comprehensive analysis of the ability of current stellar population models to reproduce the optical ( ugriz ) and near-infrared ( JHK ) colours of a small sample of well-studied nearby elliptical and S0 galaxies. We find broad agreement between the ages and metallicities derived using different population models, although different models show different systematic deviations from the measured broad-band fluxes. Although it is possible to constrain simple stellar population models to a well-defined area in age–metallicity space, there is a clear degeneracy between these parameters even with such a full range of precise colours. The precision to which age and metallicity can be determined independently, using only broad-band photometry with realistic errors, is  Δ[Fe/H]≃ 0.18  and  Δlog Age ≃ 0.25  . To constrain the populations and therefore the star formation history further, it will be necessary to combine broad-band optical–IR photometry with either spectral line indices, or else photometry at wavelengths outside this range.     

Jupiter’s shrinking Great Red Spot and steady Oval BA: Velocity measurements with the ‘Advection Corrected Correlation Image Velocimetry’ automated cloud-tracking method

We show that between 1996 and 2006, the area circumscribed by the high-speed collar of the Great Red Spot (GRS) shrunk by 15%, while the peak velocities within its collar remained constant. This shrinkage indicates a dynamical change in the GRS because the region circumscribed by the collar is nearly coincident with the location of the potential vorticity anomaly of the GRS. It was previously observed that the area of the clouds associated with the GRS has been shrinking. However, the cloud cover of the GRS is not coincident with the location of its potential vorticity anomaly or any other of its known dynamical features. We show that the peak velocities of the Oval BA were nearly the same in 2000, when the Oval was white, and in 2006, when it was red, as were all of the other features of the two velocities fields. To measure temporal changes in the GRS and Oval, we extracted velocities from images taken with Galileo, Cassini, and the Hubble Space Telescope using a new iterative method called Advection Corrected Correlation Image Velocimetry (ACCIV). ACCIV finds correlations over image pairs with 10-h time separations when other automated velocity-extraction methods are limited to time separations of 2 h or less. Typically, ACCIV velocities produced from images separated by 10 h had errors that are 3-6 times smaller than similar velocities extracted from images separated by 2 h or less. ACCIV produces velocity fields containing hundreds of thousands of independent correlation vectors (tie-points). Dense velocity fields are needed to locate the loci of peak velocities and other features.