Climate spectra and detecting climate change

Part of the debate over possible climate changes centers on the possibility that the changes observed over the previous century are natural in origin. This raises the question of how large a change could be expected as a result of natural variability. If the climate measurement of interest is modelled as a stationary (or related) Gaussian time series, this question can be answered in terms of (a) the way in which change is estimated, and (b) the spectrum of the time series. These computations are illustrated for 128 years of global temperature data using some simple measures of change and for a variety of possible temperature spectra. The results highlight the time scales on which it is important to know the magnitude of natural variability. The uncertainties in estimates of trend are most sensitive to fluctuations in the temperature series with periods from approximately 50 to 500 years. For some of the temperature spectra, it was found that the standard error of the least squares trend estimate was 3 times the standard error derived under the naïve assumption that the temperature series was uncorrelated. The observed trend differs from zero by more than 3 times the largest of the calculated standard errors, however, and is therefore highly significant.     

Fractional crystallization of primitive,hydrous arc magmas: an experimental study at 0.7 GPa

Differentiation of mantle-derived, hydrous, basaltic magmas is a fundamental process to produce evolved intermediate to SiO₂-rich magmas that form the bulk of the middle to shallow continental and island arc crust. This study reports the results of fractional crystallization experiments conducted in a piston cylinder apparatus at 0.7 GPa for hydrous, calc-alkaline to arc tholeiitic magmas. Fractional crystallization was approached by synthesis of starting materials representing the liquid composition of the previous, higher temperature experiment. Temperatures ranged from near-liquidus at 1,170 °C to near-solidus conditions at 700 °C. H₂O contents varied from 3.0 to more than 10 wt%. The liquid line of descent covers the entire compositional range from olivine–tholeiite (1,170 °C) to high-silica rhyolite (700 °C) and evolves from metaluminous to peraluminous compositions. The following crystallization sequence has been established: olivine → clinopyroxene → plagioclase, spinel → orthopyroxene, amphibole, titanomagnetite → apatite → quartz, biotite. Anorthite-rich plagioclase and spinel are responsible for a marked increase in SiO₂-content (from 51 to 53 wt%) at 1,040 °C. At lower temperatures, fractionation of amphibole, plagioclase and Fe–Ti oxide over a temperature interval of 280 °C drives the SiO₂ content continuously from 53 to 78 wt%. Largest crystallization steps were recorded around 1,040 °C and at 700 °C. About 40 % of ultramafic plutonic rocks have to crystallize to generate basaltic–andesitic liquids, and an additional 40 % of amphibole–gabbroic cumulate to produce granitic melts. Andesitic liquids with a liquidus temperature of 1,010 °C only crystallize 50 % over an 280 °C wide range to 730 °C implying that such liquids form mobile crystal mushes (<50 % crystals) in long-lived magmatic systems in the middle crust, allowing for extensive fractionation, assimilation and hybridization with periodic replenishment of more mafic magmas from deeper magma reservoirs.     

On the use of geochronology of detrital grains in determining the time of deposition of clastic sedimentary strata

Placing geologic events in a temporal framework is essential to telling the story of Earth history. However, clastic sedimentary rocks can be difficult to date in an absolute reference because they are made up of grains that are older than the rock in which they are now found, and some clastic rocks do not contain fossils that allow precise reference to the Geologic Timescale. For such rocks, the isotopic dating of detrital minerals can be used to estimate the time of deposition; the clastic rock must be younger than the youngest grain analysed. However, many researchers eschew this simple and straightforward approach in favour of schemes that estimate the maximum allowable depositional age as the weighted mean of the age of several grains, chosen by a variety of selection criteria. This is a mistake; in the absence of a geochemical resemblance apart from the similarity of their age, detrital grains should not be assumed to have originated in the same system and therefore any averaging or other manipulation of such data is statistically invalid and produces results without geologic significance. In the absence of interbedded volcanic rocks or index fossils, dating of detrital minerals can be an important aid in understanding the time of deposition of clastic rocks, but the best estimate will come from taking note of the youngest single grain and not by inappropriately averaging data.     

Lake Sediment Core Records of Sulphur Accumulation and Sulphur Isotopic Composition in Central Ontario, Canada Lakes

Stable isotopic compositions and concentrations of total sedimentary sulphur (S) were determined in cores from 6 lakes in the acid-sensitive Muskoka-Haliburton region of south-central Ontario. The isotopic composition of S in deep sediment (> ~ 20 cm) was approximately constant in all lakes, and indicated a pre-industrial δ ³⁴S value between +4.0 and +5.3‰, which is similar to current bulk deposition. Similarly, total S concentrations in deep sediment were relatively low (1.9–5 mg S g⁻¹ dwt) and approximately constant with depth within cores. All lakes exhibited up-core increases in total S and decreases in δ ³⁴S at a depth corresponding to the beginning of industrialization in the Great Lakes region ( ~ 1900), resulting in a generally reciprocal depth pattern between total S concentration and δ ³⁴S ratios. While initial shifts in total S and δ ³⁴S were likely due to enhanced SO₄ reduction of newly available anthropogenic SO₄, both the magnitude and pattern of up-core S enrichment and shifts in δ ³⁴S varied greatly among lakes, and did not match changes in S deposition post 1900. Differences between lakes in total S and δ ³⁴S were not related to any single hydrologic (e.g., residence time) or physical (e.g., catchment-area-to-lake area ratio) lake characteristic. This work indicates that sediment cores do not provide consistent records of changes in post-industrial S deposition in this region, likely due to redox-related mobility of S in upper sediment.     

Experimental study,numerical modeling of and axial prediction approach to base grouted drilled shafts in cohesionless soils

The pressure grouting of drilled shaft tips has become popular worldwide due to its effectiveness in mobilizing a larger portion of the available tip resistance under service displacements. This paper presents experimental and numerical studies on the load transfer mechanism and factors controlling the axial response of base grouted drilled shafts in cohesionless soils. The study found that the increased axial capacity of grout-tipped drilled shafts under service loads and displacements depended mainly on preloading effects and the increased tip area provided by the grouting process. A simple prediction approach for estimating the tip capacity of grouted shafts utilizing cone penetration resistance was suggested based on the results of the study. The validity of the proposed approach was verified by the analysis of full-scale case studies of grouted shafts reported in the literature.     

Can 234U–230Th dating be used to date large semi‐arid tufas? Challenges from a study in the Naukluft Mountains,Namibia

The large, extensive tufa deposits of the semi‐arid Naukluft Mountains, Namibia are potentially important palaeoenvironmental indicators in an area with few proxy records. Tufas are reliable indicators of increased moisture availability, and have been shown to be amenable to ²³⁴U–²³⁰Th dating, although two challenges are detrital contamination and open‐system behaviour. Densely cemented tufa facies are good candidates for dating, minimising these problems. We report attempts to date five densely‐cemented units, which are only found rarely within the Naukluft deposits. We applied a detailed methodology using multiple subsample analysis, measurement of insoluble residues, application of ‘isochron’ mixing lines, and attempted open‐systems modelling, alongside observations of micromorphology and cathodoluminescence in order to assess the validity of any obtained dates. Surprisingly, densely cemented tufas were found not always to be suitable for dating. Two units contained detrital contamination, which could not be corrected for using a single leachate correction or ‘isochron’ methods. Two units contained ‘excess ²³⁰Th’. This could result under a closed‐system if initial (²³⁴U/²³⁸U) was sufficiently high. Alternatively this may be the result of open‐system behaviour, and loss of uranium, or incorporation of initial unsupported ²³⁰Th, which render samples unsuitable for ²³⁴U–²³⁰Th dating. Micromorphological appearance and cathodoluminescence behaviour are used to explore these possibilities. This study exemplifies the need for careful sample selection, and highlights the importance of analysing multiple subsamples from any tufa sample. The detailed methodology applied proves to be a powerful tool for identifying the range of problems that can be encountered when selecting suitable candidate samples for successful dating. It also shows that semi‐arid tufa sequences may contain very little material suitable for dating. A reliable age of c 80 ka was obtained for a banded unit within a large fluvial barrage, with less reliable dates suggesting tufa deposition during times since >350 ka through to the late Holocene. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gyroremanent magnetization produced by specimen rotation between successive alternating field treatments

Summary. On the basis of existing theories of rotational remanent magnetization, it is predicted that a gyroremanent magnetization (GRM) might be induced in an isotropic specimen whose orientation is changed during the interval between successive alternating field treatments. An expression is derived, relating the relative magnitude of GRM to the angular displacement, θ of a specimen about an axis perpendicular to the alternating field axis. The predicted effects were observed for four of the five specimens investigated, and in each case GRM was of comparable magnitude to the corresponding partial rotational remanent magnetization. Hysteresis loop curves and characteristics are all consistent with a main magnetic component comprising magnetite grains. A possible connection between GRM and another form of GRM reported in the case of an anisotropic specimen is suggested. Demagnetization of isotropic (and anisotropic) samples by means of the multi-axis technique might be adversely affected by production of GRM.     

A Decade of Change in the Skidaway River Estuary. III. Plankton

The Skidaway River estuary, GA (USA), a tidally dominated subtropical system surrounded by extensive Spartina salt marshes, is experiencing steady increases in nutrients, chlorophyll, and particulate matter and decline in dissolved oxygen, associated with cultural eutrophication. A long-term study is documenting changes in these parameters: previous papers Verity (Estuaries 25:944–960, 2002a, Estuaries 25:961–975, b) reported on hydrography, nutrients, chlorophyll, and particulate matter during 1986–1996; plankton community responses are reported here. Phytoplankton, bacteria, heterotrophic nanoplankton and dinoflagellates, ciliates, and copepods exhibited strong seasonal cycles in abundance driven by temperature and resource availability, typically with summer maxima and winter minima. However, cultural eutrophication coincided with altered planktonic food webs as autotrophic and heterotrophic communities responded to increasing concentrations and changing ratios of inorganic and organic nutrients, potential prey, and predators. Small (<8 μm) photosynthetic nanoplankton increased in absolute concentration and also relative to larger cells. In contrast, diatoms did not show consistent increases in abundance, despite significant long-term increases in ambient silicate concentrations. Mean annual bacteria concentrations approximately doubled, and eukaryotic organisms in the microbial food web (heterotrophic and mixotrophic flagellates, dinoflagellates, ciliates, and metazoan zooplankton) also increased. All plankton groups except copepods showed trends of increasing annual amplitudes between seasonal high and low values, with higher peak concentrations each year. These observations suggest that the eutrophication signal was gradually becoming uncoupled from regulatory mechanisms. Theory and evidence from other more impacted waters suggest that, if these patterns continue, changes in the structure and function of higher trophic levels will ensue.