Sulfur in presolar silicon carbide grains from asymptotic giant branch stars

We studied 14 presolar SiC mainstream grains for C‐, Si‐, and S‐isotopic compositions and S elemental abundances. Ten grains have low levels of S contamination and CI chondrite‐normalized S/Si ratios between 2 × 10^?5 and 2 × 10^?4. All grains have S‐isotopic compositions compatible within 2σ of solar values. Their mean S isotope composition deviates from solar by at most a few percent, and is consistent with values observed for the carbon star IRC+10216, believed to be a representative source star of the grains, and the interstellar medium. The isotopic data are also consistent with stellar model predictions of low‐mass asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars. In a δ³³S versus δ³⁴S plot the data fit along a line with a slope of 1.8 ± 0.7, suggesting imprints from galactic chemical evolution. The observed S abundances are lower than expected from equilibrium condensation of CaS in solid solution with SiC under pressure and temperature conditions inferred from the abundances of more refractory elements in SiC. Calcium to S abundance ratios are generally above unity, contrary to expectations for stoichiometric CaS solution in the grains, possibly due to condensation of CaC₂ into SiC. We observed a correlation between Mg and S abundances suggesting solid solution of MgS in SiC. The low abundances of S in mainstream grains support the view that the significantly higher abundances of excess ³²S found in some Type AB SiC grains are the result of in situ decay of radioactive ³²Si from born‐again AGB stars that condensed into AB grains.     

A Lee wave cloud climatology for pincher creek,Alberta

Abstract

The annual, monthly and diurnal frequencies and durations of wave clouds are summarized from twelve years of observations at Pincher Creek, Alberta. Wave clouds occur on an average of 141 days annually. There is a distinct winter maximum anda summer minimum of occurrence. Wave clouds occur on 50% or more of the days during October and February, the most active months. Wave clouds persist for longer periods in the cooler half of the year. There appears to be a marked diurnal variation in wave cloudfrequency with maxima in the afternoon, however, this may be due to decreased visibility at sunrise and sunset.     

Inertial oscillations near the coast of Nova Scotia during CASP

Abstract

Analysis of current, temperature and salinity records in the nearshore region of the Scotian Shelf during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP), reveals that the inertial wave field is highly intermittent, with comparable amplitudes in the surface and deep layers. Clockwise current energy in the surface layer is concentrated at a frequency slightly below inertial, consistent with Doppler shifting by the strong mean current and/or straining by the mean flow shear, whereas the spectral peak in deep water is at the local inertial frequency. Clockwise coherence is high (γ² ≥ 0.8) horizontally over the scale of the array (60 km × 120 km) and in the vertical, with upward phase propagation rates of 0.15–0.50 × 10^?12 ms^?1, inversely proportional to the local value of the Brunt Väisälä frequency. Clockwise current energy decreases in the onshore direction and appears to be completely inhibited on the 60‐m isobath.

A case study of the response to the CASP IOP 14 storm indicates that the inertial waves may be generated by a strong wind shift propagating onshore at a speed of 10 ms^?1. On the eastern side of the array (Liscomb line), clockwise current oscillations propagate onshore in the surface layer at a rate (8.1 ± 0.9 m s^?1) comparable with the speed of the atmospheric front, while waves in the pycnocline move offshore at a lower (internal wave) speed (1.8 m s^?1). Furthermore the temperature and salinity fluctuations are in (out) of phase with longshore current in the deep (surface) layer. However, on the western side of the array (Halifax line), the inertial waves are more complex. A sharp steepening of phase lines at the coast indicates that the phase speed of clockwise current oscillations is considerably reduced and the evidence for offshore propagation of internal waves is less clear. The discrepancies between observations on the two lines suggest that the internal wave field is three‐dimensional.

Results of simple mixed‐layer models indicate that the inertial response near the surface is sensitive to the accurate definition of the local wind field, but not to certain model physics, such as the form of the decay term. The observations also show some qualitative similarities with models for two‐dimensional response to a moving front (e.g. Kundu, 1986), but the actual forcing terms are more complicated, based on IOP 14 wind measurements.     

Statistical modeling of extreme value behavior in North American tree-ring density series

Many analyses of the paleoclimate record include conclusions about extremes, with a focus on the unprecedented nature of recent climate events. While the use of extreme value theory is becoming common in the analysis of the instrumental climate record, applications of this framework to the spatio-temporal analysis of paleoclimate records remain limited. This article develops a Bayesian hierarchical model to investigate spatially varying trends and dependencies in the parameters characterizing the distribution of extremes of a proxy data set, and applies it to the site-wise decadal maxima and minima of a gridded network of temperature sensitive tree ring density time series over northern North America. The statistical analysis reveals significant spatial associations in the temporal trends of the location parameters of the generalized extreme value distributions: maxima are increasing as a function of time, with stronger increases in the north and east of North America; minima are significantly increasing in the west, possibly decreasing in the east, and exhibit no changes in the center of the region. Results indicate that the distribution varies as a function of both space and time, with tree ring density maxima becoming more extreme as a function of time and minima having diverging temporal trends, by spatial location. Results of this proxy-only analysis are a first step towards directly reconstructing extremal climate behavior, as opposed to mean climate behavior, by linking extremes in the proxy record to extremes in the instrumental record.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Circulation over Bulgaria and its connection with NAO indices and Sea Surface Temperatures

Trends in atmospheric pressure, circulation and some relationships between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices, sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric circulation over Bulgaria are discussed in this article. Data for measured atmospheric pressure at stations Burgas, Pleven, and Sandanski are used. Information about atmospheric circulation over Bulgaria was obtained using sea level pressure and 700 hPa Omega (vertical velocity) reanalysis daily data for grid cells covering the territory of Bulgaria for the period 1948–2010. Zonal and meridional indices for Bulgaria were also calculated based on the data for sea level pressure. NAO index calculated by NOAA and NCAR is correlated with atmospheric pressure and circulation. A total of 12 areas in three major water basins influencing Bulgarian climate—North Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Black Seas—were studied. Main methods employed in the article are statistical—trend analysis, multiple linear regression, correlation, nonparametric tests, etc. There is no change in the mean values of atmospheric pressure over Bulgaria. Circulation over Bulgaria during the research period increases its anticyclonal patterns mainly due to the decrease of the number of cyclones. Dynamics in zonal and meridional indices for Bulgaria result in an increase of the northwest transport in the winter and an increase of the northeast transport in the summer. Cyclones over Bulgaria determine the values of atmospheric pressure. Influence of the NAO on atmospheric pressure and circulation is stronger in winter. Atmospheric processes, expressed by the number of cyclones and anticyclones, are most active in spring. Current trends are towards increasing of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at all investigated places. Temporally, the effect of SSTs on the number of cyclones, anticyclones, zonal and meridional indices for Bulgaria during the different seasons comes with a delay of 1 to 3 months. Constructed multiple linear regression (MLR) models with predictors SSTs adequately describe the atmospheric circulation over Bulgaria. There is a clear pattern of SSTs distribution, which leads to a higher number of cyclones over Bulgaria in winter—lower than normal temperatures in the Aegean Sea and higher than normal in the Black Sea. A decrease in the difference of temperatures between the Gulf Stream and western colder parts leads to higher values of winter zonal transport over Bulgaria. Higher than normal temperatures in Black Sea lead to a higher number of cyclones in spring. Higher difference in temperatures of the North Atlantic leads to a stronger cyclogenesis and enhanced zonal transport, which affects autumn circulation over Bulgaria.     

US institutional pathways to clean coal and shale gas: lessons for China

China's 12th Five-Year Plan (2011–2015) envisages that shale gas and coal will be central to its energy future. However, for China to meet the energy security and climate change objectives set out in its 12th Five-Year Plan it will be reliant on the widespread commercial deployment of two key technologies; hydraulic fracturing combined with horizontal drilling for shale gas, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) for coal. China is moving to acquire these technologies through technology transfer and diffusion from the US, but progress has been slow, and neither is currently available in China on a commercial scale. Drawing on interviews in the US and China, this article argues that China's expectation of technology from the US may well be disappointed because of factors unique to the US institutional environment that have made the development of fracking technology possible and hinder the development of CCS technology at a commercial scale.

Policy relevance

If China is to meet the energy security and climate change objectives set out in its 12th Five-Year Plan it will be reliant on the widespread commercial deployment of fracking and clean coal technologies. While China expects to acquire these technologies via technology transfer and diffusion from the US, progress has been slow. Because of factors unique to the US institutional environment the availability of both technologies on a commercial scale in China is unlikely in the coming years. As a result, Chinese policy makers would be well-advised not to count on these technologies to meet their energy and climate goals.     

Landscape for change? International climate policy and energy transitions: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

What is the role of the climate regime in facilitating rapid decarbonization of the world’s energy systems? We examine how core assumptions concerning the roles of the nation state, carbon markets and finance and technology in international climate policy are being challenged by the realities of how transitions in the energy systems are unfolding. Drawing on the critical region of sub-Saharan Africa, we examine the potential for international climate policy to foster new trajectories towards decarbonization.

Policy relevance

The international regime for climate policy has been in place for some twenty years. Despite significant changes in the landscape of energy systems and drivers of global GHG emissions over this time, the core principles and tools remain relatively stable – national governments, carbon markets, project-based climate finance and the transfer of technological hardware. Given the diversity of actors and drivers and the limited direct reach and influence of international climate policy, however, there is an urgent need to consider how the climate regime can best support the embryonic transitions that are slowly taking form around the world. To do this effectively requires a more nuanced understanding of the role of the state in governing these transitions beyond the notion of a cohesive state serving as rule-enforcer and transition manager. It also requires a broader view of technology, not just as hardware that is transferred, but as a set of practices and networks of expertise and enabling actors. Likewise, though markets have an important role to play as vehicles for achieving broader ends, they are not an end in themselves. Finally on finance, while acknowledging the important role of climate aid, often as a multiplier or facilitator of more ambitious private flows, it is critical to differentiate between the types of finance required for different transitions, many of which will not be counted under, or directed by, the climate regime. In sum, the (low-) carbon economy is being built in ways and in numerous sites that the climate regime needs to be cognizant of and engage with productively, and this may require fundamental reconsideration of the building blocks of the international climate regime.     

The High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C)

The High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) was flown on a NASA sounding rocket on 11 July 2012. The goal of the Hi-C mission was to obtain high-resolution (≈?0.3?–?0.4′′), high-cadence (≈?5 seconds) images of a solar active region to investigate the dynamics of solar coronal structures at small spatial scales. The instrument consists of a normal-incidence telescope with the optics coated with multilayers to reflect a narrow wavelength range around 19.3 nm (including the Fe xii 19.5-nm spectral line) and a 4096×4096 camera with a plate scale of 0.1′′?pixel^?1. The target of the Hi-C rocket flight was Active Region 11520. Hi-C obtained 37 full-frame images and 86 partial-frame images during the rocket flight. Analysis of the Hi-C data indicates the corona is structured on scales smaller than currently resolved by existing satellite missions.     

The Compatibility of Flare Temperatures Observed with AIA,GOES, and RHESSI

We test the compatibility and biases of multi-thermal flare DEM (differential emission measure) peak temperatures determined with AIA with those determined by GOES and RHESSI using the isothermal assumption. In a set of 149 M- and X-class flares observed during the first two years of the SDO mission, AIA finds DEM peak temperatures at the time of the peak GOES 1?–?8 Å flux to have an average of T _p=12.0±2.9 MK and Gaussian DEM widths of log₁₀(σ _T )=0.50±0.13. From GOES observations of the same 149 events, a mean temperature of T _p=15.6±2.4 MK is inferred, which is systematically higher by a factor of T _GOES/T _AIA=1.4±0.4. We demonstrate that this discrepancy results from the isothermal assumption in the inversion of the GOES filter ratio. From isothermal fits to photon spectra at energies of ?≈6?–?12 keV of 61 of these events, RHESSI finds the temperature to be higher still by a factor of T _RHESSI/T _AIA=1.9±1.0. We find that this is partly a consequence of the isothermal assumption. However, RHESSI is not sensitive to the low-temperature range of the DEM peak, and thus RHESSI samples only the high-temperature tail of the DEM function. This can also contribute to the discrepancy between AIA and RHESSI temperatures. The higher flare temperatures found by GOES and RHESSI imply correspondingly lower emission measures. We conclude that self-consistent flare DEM temperatures and emission measures require simultaneous fitting of EUV (AIA) and soft X-ray (GOES and RHESSI) fluxes.