What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?

Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (<8°). Our findings suggest that output from current generation ESMs is not yet suitable for making sub-regional projections of change in coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.     

Diapycnal heat flux and mixed layer heat budget within the Atlantic Cold Tongue

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Atlantic are crucial for climate variability within the tropical belt. Despite this importance, state-of-the-art climate models show a large SST warm bias in this region. Knowledge about the seasonal mixed layer (ML) heat budget is a prerequisite for understanding SST mean state and its variability. Within this study all contributions to the seasonal ML heat budget are estimated at four locations within the Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) that are representative for the western (0°N, 23°W), central (0°N, 10°W) and eastern (0°N, 0°E) equatorial as well as the southern (10°S, 10°W) ACT. To estimate the contribution of the diapycnal heat flux due to turbulence an extensive data set of microstructure observations collected during ten research cruises between 2005 and 2012 is analyzed. The results for the equatorial ACT indicate that with the inclusion of the diapycnal heat flux the seasonal ML heat budget is balanced. Within the equatorial region, the diapycnal heat flux is essential for the development of the ACT. It dominates over all other cooling terms in the central and eastern equatorial ACT, while it is of similar size as the zonal advection in the western equatorial ACT. In contrast, the SST evolution in the southern ACT region can be explained entirely by air-sea heat fluxes.     

Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model

Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean–atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993–2010 and model reanalysis over 1981–2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981–2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.     

Avalanche and landslide simulation using the material point method: flow dynamics and force interaction with structures

In this paper, the material point method (MPM) is presented as a tool for simulating large deformation, gravity-driven landslides. The primary goal is to assess the interaction of these flow-like events with the built environment. This includes an evaluation of earthen mounds when energy dissipating devices are placed in the path of a snow avalanche. The effectiveness of the embankments is characterized using displacement, velocity, mass, and energy measures. A second example quantifies the force interaction between a landslide and a square rigid column. Multiple slide approach angles are considered, and various aspects of the impact force are discussed.     

Buried pockmarks on the Top Chalk surface of the Danish North Sea and their potential significance for interpreting palaeocirculation patterns

Three-dimensional (3D) seismic data from the southern Danish North Sea were used to analyse the morphology and spatial distribution of depressions in the Danian Chalk deposit. Previously, these depressions were either interpreted as karst structures or pockmarks. The observed depressions occur in an interval from 25 ms below to 12 ms above the Top Chalk surface. Three types of depressions were differentiated based on their plan-view geometry and their degree of symmetry: Type 1, comprising sub-circular and symmetrical depressions, is the dominant group (ca. 70 %). Type 2, elongated and symmetrical depressions, represents only a small fraction (ca. 5 %). The elongated and asymmetrical depressions of Type 3 compose ca. 25 %. In cross section, each depression type can be either characterised by a V- or a U-shape. The maximum size of the depressions ranges from 50 to 580 m, with an average internal depth of 10 m. We interpret the depressions as pockmarks formed by the expulsion of biogenic or thermogenic fluids at the Danian seafloor. Likely, the initial form of the pockmarks has been circular (Type 1) and was subsequently modified for Types 2 and 3 to an elongated form by currents. The long axis of the pockmarks is interpreted to represent the effective current direction. The inferred direction is sub-parallel to the palaeobathymetric contours. The 3D seismic interpretation of pockmarks presented in this paper contributes to the understanding of fluid migration and palaeocirculation patterns during the sedimentation of the terminal Chalk Group in the southern Danish North Sea.     

Experimental study,numerical modeling of and axial prediction approach to base grouted drilled shafts in cohesionless soils

The pressure grouting of drilled shaft tips has become popular worldwide due to its effectiveness in mobilizing a larger portion of the available tip resistance under service displacements. This paper presents experimental and numerical studies on the load transfer mechanism and factors controlling the axial response of base grouted drilled shafts in cohesionless soils. The study found that the increased axial capacity of grout-tipped drilled shafts under service loads and displacements depended mainly on preloading effects and the increased tip area provided by the grouting process. A simple prediction approach for estimating the tip capacity of grouted shafts utilizing cone penetration resistance was suggested based on the results of the study. The validity of the proposed approach was verified by the analysis of full-scale case studies of grouted shafts reported in the literature.     

Stochastic Fracture Propagation Modelling for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Fractures and fracture networks are the fundamental components of enhanced geothermal systems and determine their technical and economic viability. A realistic fracture model that can adequately describe a fracture-stimulated reservoir is critical for subsequent flow and heat transfer analyses of the system. Fractures in these systems are essentially the product of hydraulic stimulations of the reservoir that, together with ground conditions and the local stress regime, determine how fractures are formed and propagated. This paper describes three methods for generating realistic fracture models for enhanced geothermal systems; two of them incorporate the fracture propagation process in the modelling and hence provide a stochastic fracture propagation model. The methods are: a Bayesian framework in the form of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation, an extended Random Sampling Consensus model and a Point and Surface Association Consensus model. The conditioning data used in these methods are seismic events recorded during fracture stimulation. Geodynamics’ Habanero reservoir in the Cooper Basin of South Australia is used as a case study to test these methods.     

Arsenic within the secondary environment resulting from geogenic inputs,Harlech Dome,United Kingdom

There has been a growing awareness of As in the environment due to both anthropogenic and geogenic loading. This study quantifies the presence of As in river water, river sediment and groundwater within the Harlech Dome region of the UK, an area underlain by Cambro–Ordovician aged mineralization. Published data regarding As levels in UK groundwater are relatively rare compared to elsewhere. Arsenic levels in groundwater (0.1–18 µg l^?1) and river sediment (1.5–142 mg kg^?1) exceed environmental quality guidelines and indicate the release of As into the secondary environment from predominantly geogenic sources. Modelling of dissolved As speciation using ORP–pH diagrams predicts the presence of As in both arsenate (As⁵⁺) and arsenous acid (As³⁺) species, which possess differing solubilities and mobilities. Calculation of enrichment factors (EFs) for As in river sediments, using Al as a reference element, indicates highest EFs, and therefore As release, occurs in streams draining the Coed-y-Brenin region in the south-east of the Harlech Dome. This area is underlain by an as yet unexploited porphyry copper deposit. Data indicate that the presence of potentially harmful elements within the environment may occur with or without the presence of major anthropogenic activity.     

Fractional crystallization of primitive,hydrous arc magmas: an experimental study at 0.7 GPa

Differentiation of mantle-derived, hydrous, basaltic magmas is a fundamental process to produce evolved intermediate to SiO₂-rich magmas that form the bulk of the middle to shallow continental and island arc crust. This study reports the results of fractional crystallization experiments conducted in a piston cylinder apparatus at 0.7 GPa for hydrous, calc-alkaline to arc tholeiitic magmas. Fractional crystallization was approached by synthesis of starting materials representing the liquid composition of the previous, higher temperature experiment. Temperatures ranged from near-liquidus at 1,170 °C to near-solidus conditions at 700 °C. H₂O contents varied from 3.0 to more than 10 wt%. The liquid line of descent covers the entire compositional range from olivine–tholeiite (1,170 °C) to high-silica rhyolite (700 °C) and evolves from metaluminous to peraluminous compositions. The following crystallization sequence has been established: olivine → clinopyroxene → plagioclase, spinel → orthopyroxene, amphibole, titanomagnetite → apatite → quartz, biotite. Anorthite-rich plagioclase and spinel are responsible for a marked increase in SiO₂-content (from 51 to 53 wt%) at 1,040 °C. At lower temperatures, fractionation of amphibole, plagioclase and Fe–Ti oxide over a temperature interval of 280 °C drives the SiO₂ content continuously from 53 to 78 wt%. Largest crystallization steps were recorded around 1,040 °C and at 700 °C. About 40 % of ultramafic plutonic rocks have to crystallize to generate basaltic–andesitic liquids, and an additional 40 % of amphibole–gabbroic cumulate to produce granitic melts. Andesitic liquids with a liquidus temperature of 1,010 °C only crystallize 50 % over an 280 °C wide range to 730 °C implying that such liquids form mobile crystal mushes (<50 % crystals) in long-lived magmatic systems in the middle crust, allowing for extensive fractionation, assimilation and hybridization with periodic replenishment of more mafic magmas from deeper magma reservoirs.     

Building zoned ignimbrites by recycling silicic cumulates: insight from the 1,000 km<Superscript>3</Superscript> Carpenter Ridge Tuff,CO

The ~1,000 km³ Carpenter Ridge Tuff (CRT), erupted at 27.55 Ma during the mid-tertiary ignimbrite flare-up in the western USA, is among the largest known strongly zoned ash-flow tuffs. It consists primarily of densely welded crystal-poor rhyolite with a pronounced, highly evolved chemical signature (high Rb/Sr, low Ba, Zr, Eu), but thickly ponded intracaldera CRT is capped by a more crystal-rich, less silicic facies. In the outflow ignimbrite, this upper zone is defined mainly by densely welded crystal-rich juvenile clasts of trachydacite composition, with higher Fe–Ti oxide temperatures, and is characterized by extremely high Ba (to 7,500 ppm), Zr, Sr, and positive Eu anomalies. Rare mafic clasts (51–53 wt% SiO₂) with Ba contents to 4,000–5,000 ppm and positive Eu anomalies are also present. Much of the major and trace-element variations in the CRT juvenile clasts can be reproduced via in situ differentiation by interstitial melt extraction from a crystal-rich, upper-crustal mush zone, with the trachydacite, crystal-rich clasts representing the remobilized crystal cumulate left behind by the melt extraction process. Late recharge events, represented by the rare mafic clasts and high-Al amphiboles in some samples, mixed in with parts of the crystal cumulate and generated additional scatter in the whole-rock data. Recharge was important in thermally remobilizing the silicic crystal cumulate by partially melting the near-solidus phases, as supported by: (1) ubiquitous wormy/sieve textures and reverse zoning patterns in feldspars and biotites, (2) absence of quartz in this very silicic unit stored at depths of >4–5 km, and (3) heterogeneous melt compositions in the trachydacite fiamme and mafic clasts, particularly in Ba, indicating local enrichment of this element due mostly to sanidine and biotite melting. The injection of hot, juvenile magma into the upper-crustal cumulate also imparted the observed thermal gradient to the deposits and the mixing overprint that partly masks the in situ differentiation process. The CRT provides a particularly clear perspective on processes of in situ crystal-liquid separation into a lower crystal-rich zone and an upper eruptible cap, which appears common in incrementally built upper-crustal magma reservoirs of high-flux magmatic provinces.