Blind Source Separation for Compositional Time Series

Many geological phenomena are regularly measured over time to follow developments and changes. For many of these phenomena, the absolute values are not of interest, but rather the relative information, which means that the data are compositional time series. Thus, the serial nature and the compositional geometry should be considered when analyzing the data. Multivariate time series are already challenging, especially if they are higher dimensional, and latent variable models are a popular way to deal with this kind of data. Blind source separation techniques are well-established latent factor models for time series, with many variants covering quite different time series models. Here, several such methods and their assumptions are reviewed, and it is shown how they can be applied to high-dimensional compositional time series. Also, a novel blind source separation method is suggested which is quite flexible regarding the assumptions of the latent time series. The methodology is illustrated using simulations and in an application to light absorbance data from water samples taken from a small stream in Lower Austria.

     

Can sediment supply variations create sequences? Insights from stratigraphic forward modelling

Classic sequence stratigraphy suggests depositional sequences can form due to changes in accommodation and due to changes in sediment supply. Accommodation‐dominated sequences are problematic to define rigorously, but are commonly interpreted from outcrop and subsurface data. In contrast, supply‐dominated sequences are much less commonly identified. We employ numerical stratigraphic forward modelling to compare stratal geometries forced by cyclic changes in relative sea level with stratal geometries forced by sediment discharge and water discharge changes. Our quantitative results suggest that both relative sea‐level oscillations and variations in sediment/water discharge ratio are able to form sequence‐bounding unconformities independently, confirming previous qualitative sequences definitions. In some of the experiments, the two types of sequence share several characteristics, such as an absence of coastal‐plain topset deposits and stratal offlap, something typically interpreted as the result of falling relative sea level. However, the stratal geometries differ when variations in amplitude and frequency of relative sea‐level change, sediment/water discharge ratio, transport diffusion coefficient and initial bathymetry are applied. We propose that the supply‐dominated sequences could be recognised in outcrop or in the subsurface if the observations of stratal offlap and the absence of coastal‐plain topset can be made without any strong evidence of relative sea‐level fall (e.g. descending shoreline trajectory). These quantitative results suggest that both supply‐dominated and accommodation‐dominated sequences are likely to occur in the ancient record, as a consequence of multiple, possibly complex, controls.     

Northwest Africa 11024—A heated and dehydrated unique carbonaceous (CM) chondrite

Based on the high abundance of fine‐grained material and its dark appearance, NWA 11024 was recognized as a CM chondrite, which is also confirmed by oxygen isotope measurements. But contrary to known CM chondrites, the typical phases indicating aqueous alteration (e.g., phyllosilicates, carbonates) are missing. Using multiple analytical techniques, this study reveals the differences and similarities to known CM chondrites and will discuss the possibility that NWA 11024 is the first type 3 CM chondrite. During the investigation, two texturally apparent tochilinite–cronstedtite intergrowths were identified within two thin sections. However, the former phyllosilicates were recrystallized to Fe‐rich olivine during a heating event without changing the textural appearance. A peak temperature of 400–600 °C is estimated, which is not high enough to destroy or recrystallize calcite grains. Thus, calcites were never constituents of the mineral paragenesis. Another remarkable feature of NWA 11024 is the occurrence of unknown clot‐like inclusions (UCLIs) within fine‐grained rims, which are unique in this clarity. Their density and S concentration are significantly higher than of the surrounding fine‐grained rim and UCLIs can be seen as primary objects that were not formed by secondary alteration processes inside the rims. Similarities to chondritic and cometary interplanetary dust particles suggest an ice‐rich first‐generation planetesimal for their origin. In the earliest evolution, NWA 11024 experienced the lowest degree of aqueous alteration of all known CM chondrites and subsequently, a heating event dehydrated the sample. We suggest to classify the meteorite NWA 11024 as the first type 3 CM chondrite similar to the classification of CV3 chondrites (like Allende) that could also have lost their matrix phyllosilicates by thermal dehydration.     

Carbon isotopic change at the base of the upper permian zechstein sequence

Fluctuation of the carbon isotope composition of marine carbonates has recently been developed as a powerful tool for the identification of ocean-wide anoxic conditions and changes in the world budget of carbon and oxygen. A change in δ¹³ from the normal marine values (0 to + 2%) to values highly enriched in ¹³C (+3·5 to 4·5%) is recorded at the base of the Zechstein sequence both in central Germany and northeastern England. The change occurred over a relatively short period of time indicating a rapid and pronounced change in the organic carbon/carbonate budget. Evidence from other Permian basins show similar highly enriched δ¹³C values. This change may correspond to that in carbon balance distinguished by the Garrels and Perry (1975) model and based on the change in sulphur isotopic composition during the Permian.     

Large-scale laboratory experiment on erosion of sand beds by moving circular vertical jets

This study investigates the topographic deformation due to the erosion of a sand bed impinged by a moving submerged turbulent round jet in a large-scale laboratory. The test conditions represent the case of discharges beneath a vessel while operating in water with a limited clearance such as a shallow navigation channel. The jet moves horizontally and discharges water vertically downward towards the bed. The distance between the jet nozzle and the bed equals six times the jet diameter so the jet flow is in the potential core region. The speed of the jet horizontal motion was varied to examine its effect on the scour profile. The characteristic lengths of the scour profile in the asymptotic state were determined by modifying the empirical formulas in Aderibigbe and Rajaratnam [1996. Erosion of loose beds by submerged circular impinging vertical turbulent jets. Journal of Hydraulic Research 34(1), 19–33]. The maximum scour depth, the scour hole radius, and the ridge height were found to be a function of the ratio of the jet exit to jet translation velocities and were modeled using a hyperbolic function. Empirical equations describing the scour profile were developed and the scour profile was found to be self-similar when normalized by appropriate length scales.     

Topographic Rossby waves in the Gulf of Mexico

Observations of topographic Rossby waves (TRW), using moored current meters, bottom pressure gauges, and Lagrangian RAFOS floats, are investigated for the deep basin of the Gulf of Mexico. Recent extensive measurement programs in many parts of the deep gulf, which were inspired by oil and gas industry explorations into ever deeper water, allow more comprehensive analyses of the propagation and dissipation of these deep planetary waves. The Gulf of Mexico circulation can be divided into two layers with the ∼800-1200 m upper layer being dominated by the Loop Current (LC) pulsations and shedding of large (diameters ∼300-400 km) anticyclonic eddies in the east, and the translation of these LC eddies across the basin to the west. These processes spawn smaller eddies of both signs through instabilities, and interactions with topography and other eddies to produce energetic surface layer flows that have a rich spectrum of orbit periods and diameters. In contrast, current variability below 1000 m often has the characteristics of TRWs, with periods ranging from ∼10-100 days and wavelengths of ∼50-200 km, showing almost depth-independent or slightly bottom intensified currents through the weakly stratified lower water column. These fluctuations are largely uncorrelated with simultaneous upper-layer eddy flows. TRWs must be generated through energy transfer from the upper-layer eddies to the lower layer by potential vorticity adjustments to changing depths of the bottom and the interface between the layers. Therefore, the LC and LC eddies are prime candidates as has been suggested by some model studies. Model simulations have also indicated that deep lower-layer eddies may be generated by the LC and LC eddy shedding processes.In the eastern gulf, the highest observed lower-layer kinetic energy was north of the Campeche Bank under the LC in a region that models have identified as having strong baroclinic instabilities. Part of the 60-day TRW signal propagates towards the Sigsbee Escarpment (a steep slope at the base of the northern continental slope), and the rest into the southern part of the eastern basin. Higher energy is observed along the escarpment between 89°W and 92°W than either under the northern part of the LC or further south in the deep basin, because of radiating TRWs from the western side of the LC. In the northern part of the LC, evidence was found in the observations that 20-30-day TRWs were connected with the upper layer through coherent signals of relative vorticity. The ∼90° phase lead of the lower over the upper-layer relative vorticity was consistent with baroclinic instability. Along the Sigsbee Escarpment, the TRWs are refracted and reflected so that little energy reaches the lower continental slope and a substantial mean flow is generated above the steepest part of the escarpment. RAFOS float tracks show that this mean flow continues along the escarpment to the west and into Mexican waters. This seems to be a principal pathway for deepwater parcels to be transported westward. Away from the slope RAFOS floats tend to oscillate in the same general area as if primarily responding to the deep wave field. Little evidence of westward translating lower-layer eddies was found in both the float tracks and the moored currents. In the western gulf, the highest deep energy levels are much less than in the central gulf, and are found seaward of the base of the slope. Otherwise, the situation is similar with TRWs propagating towards the slope, probably generated by the local upper-layer complex eddy field, being reflected and forcing a southward mean flow along the base of the Mexican slope. Amplitudes of the lower-layer fluctuations decay from the northwest corner towards the south.     

Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts,recovery trends and future outlook

Since the early 1980s, episodes of coral reef bleaching and mortality, due primarily to climate-induced ocean warming, have occurred almost annually in one or more of the world's tropical or subtropical seas. Bleaching is episodic, with the most severe events typically accompanying coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomena, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which result in sustained regional elevations of ocean temperature. Using this extended dataset (25+ years), we review the short- and long-term ecological impacts of coral bleaching on reef ecosystems, and quantitatively synthesize recovery data worldwide. Bleaching episodes have resulted in catastrophic loss of coral cover in some locations, and have changed coral community structure in many others, with a potentially critical influence on the maintenance of biodiversity in the marine tropics. Bleaching has also set the stage for other declines in reef health, such as increases in coral diseases, the breakdown of reef framework by bioeroders, and the loss of critical habitat for associated reef fishes and other biota. Secondary ecological effects, such as the concentration of predators on remnant surviving coral populations, have also accelerated the pace of decline in some areas. Although bleaching severity and recovery have been variable across all spatial scales, some reefs have experienced relatively rapid recovery from severe bleaching impacts. There has been a significant overall recovery of coral cover in the Indian Ocean, where many reefs were devastated by a single large bleaching event in 1998. In contrast, coral cover on western Atlantic reefs has generally continued to decline in response to multiple smaller bleaching events and a diverse set of chronic secondary stressors. No clear trends are apparent in the eastern Pacific, the central-southern-western Pacific or the Arabian Gulf, where some reefs are recovering and others are not. The majority of survivors and new recruits on regenerating and recovering coral reefs have originated from broadcast spawning taxa with a potential for asexual growth, relatively long distance dispersal, successful settlement, rapid growth and a capacity for framework construction. Whether or not affected reefs can continue to function as before will depend on: (1) how much coral cover is lost, and which species are locally extirpated; (2) the ability of remnant and recovering coral communities to adapt or acclimatize to higher temperatures and other climatic factors such as reductions in aragonite saturation state; (3) the changing balance between reef accumulation and bioerosion; and (4) our ability to maintain ecosystem resilience by restoring healthy levels of herbivory, macroalgal cover, and coral recruitment. Bleaching disturbances are likely to become a chronic stress in many reef areas in the coming decades, and coral communities, if they cannot recover quickly enough, are likely to be reduced to their most hardy or adaptable constituents. Some degraded reefs may already be approaching this ecological asymptote, although to date there have not been any global extinctions of individual coral species as a result of bleaching events. Since human populations inhabiting tropical coastal areas derive great value from coral reefs, the degradation of these ecosystems as a result of coral bleaching and its associated impacts is of considerable societal, as well as biological concern. Coral reef conservation strategies now recognize climate change as a principal threat, and are engaged in efforts to allocate conservation activity according to geographic-, taxonomic-, and habitat-specific priorities to maximize coral reef survival. Efforts to forecast and monitor bleaching, involving both remote sensed observations and coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models, are also underway. In addition to these efforts, attempts to minimize and mitigate bleaching impacts on reefs are immediately required. If significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved within the next two to three decades, maximizing coral survivorship during this time may be critical to ensuring healthy reefs can recover in the long term.     

Service contracts—An instrument of international logistics supply chain: Under United States and European Union regulatory frameworks

Service contracts have emerged as an important instrument to secure a long-term relationship between carriers in the container shipping industry and shippers requiring scheduled services covering a global market. This contract, entered into largely on an individual and confidential basis, continues to enjoy anti-trust immunity under current United States and European Union regulations. It will continue to be in place even after the EC Council Regulation 4056/86 is repealed in October 2008 although it may operate in a modified way because of the absence of the common external conference tariff. This article examines the implications of this instrument on the international supply chain and explores its future role in defining efficiencies in international trade flows.