Winter daily precipitation variability over the South West Peninsula of England

Summary Daily precipitation totals for five consecutive winters (1995–99) were obtained for 127 stations in Devon and Cornwall to explore spatial variations in rainfall. This dataset was assembled with the explicit aim of assessing the appropriateness of current arrangements for daily rainfall forecasts in the SW Peninsula of England. Firstly, the extent to which fundamental geographic variables determine precipitation was investigated by correlating each station’s mean wet day amount (WDA) and percentage of wet days (PERWET) with altitude, latitude, longitude and distance from the coast. Altitude emerged as the most important control on precipitation, with a two-variable multiple linear regression model containing altitude and latitude being able to explain 39.3% (29.8%) of the variance in WDA (PERWET) values. The main spatial modes of variability in the region’s precipitation field were identified by using S mode principal components analysis (PCA). Six PCs were statistically significant and explained 83.4% of the geographic variance in precipitation over Devon and Cornwall. The components were interpreted physically by examining the synoptic flow environment (pressure and wind anomalies) on days with high positive and negative PC scores. Explaining 25.1% of the variance, the most important pattern (PC1) depicts a location’s degree of exposure or shelter in a moist, unstable W–NW airflow. The higher PCs describe modes of variability that accentuate rainfall in East Devon (PC2), Cornwall (PC3), Dartmoor and Bodmin Moor (PC4), South Devon (PC5), and North Cornwall and NW Devon (PC6) relative to other areas of the Peninsula. Finally, a winter precipitation regionalisation was derived by applying agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis to the PC loadings of the significant components. In most cases, the six coherent precipitation regions do not reflect the familiar administrative or topographic areas used for forecasting, suggesting that forecasts issued on such a basis are likely to be insufficiently detailed and misleading.     

The Palaeozoic tectono-metallogenic evolution of the northern Tasman Fold Belt System, Australia: Interplay of subduction rollback and accretion

The Tasman Fold Belt System in eastern Australia provides a record of the Palaeozoic geological history and growth of the Australian continent along the proto-Pacific margin of Gondwana inboard of an extensive and long-lived subduction system. The Hodgkinson and Broken River provinces represent prominent geological elements of this system and together form the northern Tasman Fold Belt System. Geochronological age dating of the timing of gold formation in the Amanda Bel Goldfield in the Broken River Province and the Hodgkinson Goldfield in the Hodgkinson Province provides constraints on the occurrence of a deformation and mineralisation episode in the Late Devonian–Early Carboniferous. Integration of these newly-obtained data with petrogenetic constraints and a time–space evaluation of the geological evolution of the Hodgkinson and Broken River provinces, as well as other terranes in the northern Tasman Fold Belt System, allows for the development of a geodynamic model for the Palaeozoic evolution of the northern Tasman Fold Belt System. Our model indicates that three cycles of extension–contraction occurred during the Palaeozoic evolution of the northern Tasman Fold Belt System. Episodes of extension were controlled by rollback of the subduction system along the proto-Pacific margin of Gondwana, whereas episodes of contraction resulted from accretion following the arrival of positively buoyant segments (i.e., micro-continental blocks/oceanic plateaus) at the subducting trench.Our composite interpretative model on the geodynamic evolution of the northern Tasman Fold Belt System integrates the timing of the development of mineral deposits throughout this part of the system and provides a significant advancement in the understanding of Palaeozoic geodynamics along the margin of Gondwana in northeast Australia and allows comparison with the southern part of the Tasman Fold Belt System.     

A coupling of mixed and continuous Galerkin finite element methods for poroelasticity II: the discrete-in-time case

In this paper, we formulate a finite element procedure for approximating the coupled fluid and mechanics in Biot’s consolidation model of poroelasticity. Here, we approximate the pressure by a mixed finite element method and the displacements by a Galerkin method. Theoretical convergence error estimates are derived in a discrete-in-time setting. Of particular interest is the case when the lowest-order Raviart–Thomas approximating space or cell-centered finite differences are used in the mixed formulation and continuous piecewise linear approximations are used for displacements. This approach appears to be the one most frequently applied to existing reservoir engineering simulators.     

A coupling of mixed and continuous Galerkin finite element methods for poroelasticity I: the continuous in time case

In this paper, we formulate a finite element procedure for approximating the coupled fluid and mechanics in Biot’s consolidation model of poroelasticity. Here, we approximate the pressure by a mixed finite element method and the displacements by a Galerkin method. Theoretical convergence error estimates are derived in a continuous in-time setting for a strictly positive constrained specific storage coefficient. Of particular interest is the case when the lowest-order Raviart–Thomas approximating space or cell-centered finite differences are used in the mixed formulation, and continuous piecewise linear approximations are used for displacements. This approach appears to be the one most frequently applied to existing reservoir engineering simulators.     

Regional retrograde metamorphism of a high grade terrain: the Willyama Complex,Broken Hill,Australia

Retrograde metamorphism has been a major influence in the development of the presently observed lithologies of the Willyama Complex, Broken Hill. Two broad types of retrogression are distinguished: pseudomorphous and kinematic retrogression. The former type of retrogression involves replacement of prograde phases without complete loss of the high grade fabric; hence the prograde assemblage can frequently be inferred. Kinematic retrogression involves the development of a new schistose fabric and, like pseudomorphous retrogression, is commonly related to F₃ deformation. Retrogression was initiated during the waning stage of prograde metamorphism and was accompanied by an influx of aqueous fluid at similar pressure, but lower temperature conditions than prograde metamorphism. The source of the water is believed to be the crystallization of cooling partial melts. The regional nature of this ‘Willyama-style’ of retrogression is attributed to the metasediment-rich nature of the sequence, the high geothermal gradient and the considerable amount of in situ partial melting.     

Water activity changes across an amphibolite-granulite facies transition,Broken Hill,Australia

Phase compositions in pelitic and mafic gneisses place tight constraints on pressure (ranging from 3 up to 6 kb), and, to a lesser extent, on temperature (500° up to 800° C) during prograde regional metamorphism of the Willyama Complex, Broken Hill, SE Australia. These limits allow an evaluation of water activity across the terrain using various equilibria in pelitic and mafic gneisses. The stability of cummingtonite and biotite over much of the terrain places upper limits on temperature, and the presence of syn-metamorphic partial melts in the metasediments places lower limits on a(H₂O). Garnet-biotitesillimanite-K feldspar-quartz relations combined with the partial melting data suggest a decrease in water activity from near 1.0 in the lower grade zones to 0.5±0.2 in the Broken Hill — Little Broken Hill part of the two pyroxene zone. This result is compatible with less precise hornblende-orthopyroxene-clinopyroxene-quartz relations.These P-T-a(H₂O) data from the Willyama Complex support a continuum from amphibolite to granulite facies, as proposed by Binns (1964) and suggest that the higher grade assemblages are formed in response to both higher temperature and lower water activity. The formation of granulite facies terrains by prior crustal dehydration is unsubstantiated in the present example. Instead, the decrease from a(H₂O)-1.0 in the andalusite/sillimanite-muscovite zones to a(H₂O) < 1.0 found at higher grades, is likely to reflect buffering by partial melting and dehydration reactions in the volumetrically dominant metasediments.     

Upper Limit of Iodine Oxide in the Lower Stratosphere

It has been suggested that iodine oxides, IOx, could play a significant role in the ozone destruction in the lower stratosphere. To investigate this suggestion, spectra from nine SAOZ uv-visible spectrometer balloon flights were examined for the IO absorption signature between 405 and 450 nm. IO was not detected, either at mid- or high latitude, in the morning or the evening, in summer or winter. An upper limit of 0.2 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) at 20 km and 0.1 pptv at 15 km at the 95% confidence level (2), was derived from the best measurements at 90° SZA at sunset and sunrise. Since a photochemical model shows that 70% of inorganic iodine should be in the form IO at that time, it is concluded that unless iodine chemistry is different from that assumed at the moment, the role of iodine in stratospheric ozone depletion is small.