FY-3气象卫星降水探测能力分析与展望

降水是全球能量/水循环中的重要过程。本文着重分析 FY-3 气象卫星降水探测能力,展望风云卫星后续规划中降水探测技术的发展前景。分析表明,以 FY-3 降水星为主星,与其他 FY-3 极轨卫星组成的 FY-3 气象卫星降水探测体系,在设计层面上,从载荷类型、数量、通道设置等方面均优于由美国发起并已在轨运行的全球降水测量(Global Precipitation Measurement,GPM)计划核心星的设计性能。FY-3 降水星设计装载 Ka / Ku 双频降水测量雷达,卫星轨道设计覆盖南北纬 50°范围内的中低纬地区,对影响我国区域的台风暴雨等强对流天气系统结构具有三维探测能力。FY-3 气象卫星星座的降水探测能力为气象防灾减灾提供了基础支撑。     

环境规制视角下城市绿色创新时空演变及溢出效应

基于2005—2019年中国266个地级及以上城市的面板数据,采用SBM-DEA模型评价城市绿色创新水平,刻画城市绿色创新的空间演变格局,最后构建空间杜宾模型实证分析不同类型的环境规制视角下城市绿色创新的溢出效应。研究结果显示：(1)时序发展上,研究期内城市绿色创新呈现东部地区、中部地区、西部地区、东北地区依次减弱的态势,总体上表现为“双M”型波动上升趋势,未来具有较大的增长潜力;(2)空间演化上,城市绿色创新在空间分布格局上存在明显的区域异质性,整体表现为东部地区主导发展的特征;(3)城市绿色创新在正式环境规制视角下存在正向溢出效应,在非正式环境规制视角下未产生显著溢出效应。     

Mapping daily temperature and precipitation in the Qilian Mountains of northwest China

Daily meteorological data are the critical inputs for distributed hydrological and ecological models. This study modified mountain microclimate simulation model （MTCLIM） with the data from 19 weather stations, and compared and validated two methods （the MTCLIM and the modified MTCLIM） in the Qilian Mountains of Northwest China to estimate daily temperature （i.e., maximum temperature, minimum temperature） and precipitation at six weather stations from i January 2000 to 31December 2009. The algorithm of temperature in modified MTCLIM was improved by constructing the daily linear regression relationship between temperature and elevation, aspect and location information. There are two steps to modify the MTCLIM to predict daily precipitation： firstly, the linear regression relationship was built between annual average precipitation and elevation, location, and vegetation index; secondly, the distance weight for measuring the contribution of each weather station on target point was improved by average wind direction during the rainy season. Several regression analysis and goodness-of-fit indices （i.e., Pearson＇s correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and modelingefficiency） were used to validate these estimated values. The result showed that the modified MTCLIM had a better performance than the MTCLIM. Therefore, the modified MTCLIM was used to map daily meteorological data in the study area from 2000 to 2009. These results were validated using weather stations with short time data and the predicted accuracy was acceptable. The meteorological data mapped could become inputs for distributed hydrological and ecological models applied in the Qilian Mountains.     

Case history of the disastrous debris flows of Tianmo Watershed in Bomi County,Tibet, China: Some mitigation suggestions

Debris flows and landslides, extensively developing and frequently occurring along Parlung Zangbo, seriously damage the Highway from Sichuan to Tiebt(G318) at Bomi County. The disastrous debris flows of the Tianmo Watershed on Sept. 4, 2007, July 25, 2010 and Sept. 4, 2010, blocked Parlung Zangbo River and produced dammed lakes, whose outburst flow made 50 m high terrace collapse at the opposite bank due to intense scouring on the foot of the terrace. As a result, the traffic was interrupted for 16 days in 2010 because that 900 m highway base was destructed and 430 m ruined. These debris flows were initiated by the glacial melting which was induced by continuous higher temperature and the following intensive rainfall, and expanded by moraines along channels and then blocked Parlung Zangbo. At the outlet of watershed,the density, velocity and peak discharge of debris flow was 2.06 t/m3, 12.7 m/s and 3334 m3/s, respectively. When the discharge at the outlet and the deposition volume into river exceeds 2125 m3/s and 126×103 m3, respectively, debris flow will completely blocked Parlung Zangbo. Moreover,if the shear stress of river flow on the foot of terrace and the inclination angel of terrace overruns 0. 377 N/m2 and 26°, respectively, the unconsolidated terrace will be eroded by outburst flow and collapse. It was strongly recommended for mitigation that identify and evade disastrous debris flows, reduce the junction angel of channels between river and watershed, build protecting wall for highway base and keep appropriate distance between highway and the edge of unconsolidated terrace.     

莱芜市土地登记系统的设计与实现

针对现有土地登记发证业务的特点和作业方式,提出了莱芜市土地登记系统的设计思路和原则,依托莱芜市三维国土一张图管地平台开发设计了土地登记系统。总体上实现了土地登记办公的整个业务流程,为政府管理部门办理日常业务提供了新模式。     

可控源法在海阳市郭城地区鑫泰金矿床成矿规律中的应用

可控源音频大地电磁法(CSAMT法)是一种利用人工场源研究地层、构造等深部地质特征问题的新技术新方法。在山东省海阳市郭城地区鑫泰金矿床的应用研究表明,CSAMT法可以较好地用于确定矿体的产状和大致地层结构,在矿体成矿规律研究方面具有较为突出的应用效果。     

孑遗植物四合木(Tetraena mongolica)异地保护条件下的气候生物学特征与光合效率

为了廓清异地保护条件下孑遗濒危植物四合木(Tetraena mongolica)的气候生物学特征、光合生理生态适应性及生境适宜性,应用1971—2011年的地面气象资料进行了不同试验区的气候生物图解与分析,测定了四合木及其伴生种白刺(Nitraria tangutorum)的叶片气体交换参数及光合效率。结果表明:①四合木自然分布区(内蒙古乌海地区)与异地保护区的气候生物学特征存在明显分异;②当年种植的四合木实生苗的生长量大小依次为:乌海四合木核心区实生苗鄂尔多斯实生苗阿拉善实生苗;③自然条件下,5个处理的净光合速率(Pn)依次为阿拉善移植的四合木成株(24.05±1.68μmol·m-2·s-1)乌海客土栽培的四合木(19.97±1.05μmol·m-2·s-1)乌海栽培的四合木实生苗(18.96±1.04μmol·m-2·s-1)鄂尔多斯栽培的四合木实生苗(16.64±0.92μmol·m-2·s-1)阿拉善栽培的四合木实生苗(16.48±0.13μmol·m-2·s-1);异地保护试验区栽培的四合木实生苗的Pn没有明显差异(p≥0.05),即原生境条件下栽培的四合木实生苗的Pn较高。同时,异地保护栽培四合木实生苗中,鄂尔多斯栽培的四合木实生苗的Pn阿拉善栽培的四合木实生苗。从四合木光合作用特征中的Pn、蒸腾速率、气孔导度和胞间CO2浓度、气候生物学特征和生长量等综合研究结果可以推断,从原生境区东移的实生苗迁地保护,使四合木具有更高的生理生态适宜性和环境适应性。     

辽西大黑山生态修复区土地利用格局变化及驱动力

生态修复区土地利用与覆盖变化是区域环境变化研究的重要内容,可为水土保持生态修复措施的调控及效益定量评价提供依据。以辽西大黑山生态修复区2000年、2005年和2010年的Landsat TM遥感影像为基础数据,基于Erdas Imagine遥感软件和ArcGIS技术平台,利用土地利用动态度、土地利用程度综合指数和转移矩阵等指标,对研究区土地利用格局的动态变化进行了定量分析,并探讨了其变化的驱动力因素。结果表明:1.10 a间,耕地保持面积最大,其次是林地和草地;耕地和未利用土地占总面积比例分别减少了28.43%和44.32%,林地、草地、城镇村及工矿交通、水域及水利设施用地占总面积比例分别增加了83.68%、10.75%、21.07%和162.74%。2.2000—2005年,林地的土地利用变化幅度最大,为12.42%,其次为未利用土地和草地;2005—2010年,水域及水利设施用地的土地利用变化幅度最大,为24.82%,其次是草地、未利用土地和耕地。3.研究区土地利用程度和开发强度处于中等偏上水平,2000—2005年土地利用处于发展期,2005—2010年土地利用处于调整期;土地利用类型的转入和转出主要发生在耕地、林地和草地之间。4.水土保持生态修复和退耕还林等生态建设项目的实施,可以较大程度地改变微地貌、减少地表坡度、提高植被盖度,在短时间使土地利用的空间分布发生较大变化,是其土地利用格局变化的主要驱动力因素。     

Methane hydrate formation comparisons in media with and without a water source supply

Water is a necessary element during gas hydrate formations. Therefore, by analyzing water depletion changes in media, the reaction characteristics of methane hydrate in media can be studied. In this study, two water sources supplying some liquid water which may be consumed by the methane hydrate formation reactions were designed and assembled. Using them, the full formation processes of methane hydrate was studied. Experimental results show the following： If heat released from nucleation reaction of methane hydrate is diffused rapidly, the nucleation ratios will be enhanced discernibly. While the hydrate is formed, a force is generated that sucks fresh water from the source into the vicinity of the hydrate, slowing down the cementation process and causing some hydrate grain dissociation. As a result of cementation differences, the hydrate reaction processes with different water sources present linear or quadratic equation characteristics. After a few repeated dissociation and formation processes of some hydrate grains caused by the fresh water, the gas amounts contained in hydrate will be significantly enhanced.     

梅汛期区域性暴雨的多尺度分析及临近预警

利用常规观测数据、NECP1°×1°逐6 h再分析资料、FY2E卫星黑体亮度温度TBB资料以及南京、常州多普勒天气雷达产品,对2012年江苏出梅之前的最后一场区域性暴雨过程进行多尺度分析。在此基础上,探索该类暴雨的临近预警线索,结果表明:(1)此次过程的雨带呈准纬向分布,属于典型的梅汛期静止锋降水。过程中主要有两次降水集中时段,两个阶段的降水性质存在差异,但都具备较高的降水效率。(2)中高纬大范围稳定的阻塞形势,为此次持续性暴雨过程的产生提供了有利的大尺度环流背景。而在此过程中,两段降水集中期的形成与地面触发系统的出现和维持有着较为密切的联系。(3)此次过程中两段降水集中期内的物理量特征以及TBB的演变情况和其对应的降水特征存在异同。(4)雷达特征分析表明,此次过程具有较高的降水效率和较长的持续时间。实际业务工作中可以通过判断回波的质心高度和边界层风速有无跃增来估计降水效率的潜势。当推断较高的降水效率潜势将持续较长时间时,应及时发布暴雨警报。